- Astronomers have discovered a mile-wide
asteroid that could collide with the Earth in 40 years time.
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- If it did, the devastation would be continent-wide,
with massive global effects for decades. Hundreds of millions of people
would die and many animal species would be wiped out.
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- The object is called asteroid 1999 AN10
and it was discovered on 13 January. It was picked up by the Linear telescopic
survey that scans the sky for so-called Neo's - Near Earth Objects.
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- 1999 AN10 circles the Sun every 643 days
and twice each year the Earth comes close to the giant rock.
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- From almost a hundred observations made
of it since its discovery, astronomers have determined its orbit. Close
approaches to Earth occur in 2027, but no impacts are possible then according
to Andrea Milani and Steven Chesley of the University of Pisa.
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- But 2039 is a different matter.
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- Close monitoring
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- In calculating the orbit for 1999 AN10,
the Italian astronomers say that for August 2039 "a collision solution
actually exists."
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- It is important to note that this is
different from a definite prediction of a collision.
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- In fact, from what is known at the moment,
the probability of 1999 AN10 striking the Earth must be less than the probability
of being hit by an undiscovered asteroid on a given day.
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- Nonetheless, now that the asteroid has
been found, its orbit is attracting attention. The Italian astronomers
say it will have to be monitored closely.
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- They add that it is conceivable that
at some time in the future a decision could be made to deflect or destroy
it just like in the movie Armageddon.
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- Website publication
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- Where has this announcement of major
importance been made? Not in a press release but without much fuss on the
astronomers' own Website.
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- Dr Benny Peiser of Liverpool's John Moores
University, an expert in Near Earth Objects, has expressed concern that
the news of 1999 AN10 was released on a Website without going through normal
review procedures.
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- "There is no reason whatsoever why
the findings about 1999 AN10 should not be available to the general public
- unless they have not been checked."
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- He adds that, if they have not been verified,
they should not have been posted on the web in the first place.
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- The reason why the Italian astronomers
have released their worrying findings this way may be a reaction to stringent
Nasa rules regarding the reporting of potential asteroid impacts.
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- Asteroid scare
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- Following a scare last year, when it
was thought that asteroid 1997 XF11 may strike us, a claim retracted 24
hours later, Nasa has clamped down on what it calls the premature release
of sensitive data.
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- 1997 XF11 was a false alarm. It is unlikely
that 1999 AN10 will hit us - but it cannot be ruled out completely at this
stage.
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- Calculations suggest that this asteroid
will remain "dangerously close" to Earth for the next 600 years.
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- According to Barry Peiser, what is worrying
is not the chances of 1999 AN10 striking the Earth but the "unnecessary
and detrimental secrecy that surrounds this object."
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- Other astronomers have said that the
Italian astronomers have followed the correct procedure to distribute information
about 1999 AN10 and that there is no reason at this stage why they should
have made their observations public.
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