SIGHTINGS


 
Venus' Fate Could Foreshadow
Earth's Future
2-18-99
 
WASHINGTON (AFP) - U.S. researchers put together the history of recent sudden climate changes on Venus, which may provide clues to the future of Earth in a few million years.
 
"Our model shows that Venus has changed dynamically in the recent past," said Mark Bullock of the University of Colorado at Boulder.
 
"Since Venus and Earth have a number of similarities, there are implications here for our own future," Bullock said.
 
He and other researchers try to explain why in an article appearing in the March issue of Scientific American.
 
Though Venus and Earth were virtual twins early in their evolutionary histories, they took vastly different paths.
 
Today Venus is hot enough -- 482 Celsius (900 Fahrenheit) -- to make rocks glow, and has a noxious carbon dioxide atmosphere encased by a dense cloud deck of sulfuric acid.
 
But those clouds may have waxed and waned over the eons, scientists say.
 
Venus and the Earth are the only planets in the solar system with complex, evolving climates.
 
Computer modeling by Bullock and colleague David Grinspoon indicates that volcanic activity some 800 million years ago "repaved" Venus with lava, evidenced by a dearth of impact craters on the planet's surface.
 
The two estimate that enough lava erupted to cover the surface with a layer up to 9.6 kilometers (six miles) thick.
 
The volcanic activity would also have contributed to the runaway greenhouse effect on Venus, according to the researchers.
 
Venus may have remained shrouded for well over 100 million years, they said.
 
"But we calculated that volcanism must have been active within the past 30 million years to support the thick clouds observed today," Grinspoon said. Those volcanos are still active.
 
"The climates of Earth-like planets can undergo abrupt transitions because of interactions among planetary-scale processes," the two wrote in Scientific American.
 
"In the long term Earth's fate is sealed," they wrote. "As the sun ages, it brightens. In about a billion years, the oceans will begin to evaporate rapidly and the climate will succumb to a runaway greenhouse."
 
"Earth and Venus, having started as nearly identical twins and diverged, may one day look alike."





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