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- Summary
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- The United States has issued an unofficial ultimatum
to Taiwan's presidential contenders: provoke Beijing any further and risk
a loss of U.S. support. By doing so, Washington has announced that it wants
no crisis during the upcoming U.S. presidential campaign. More importantly,
Washington fears that Beijing may turn up the pressure against Taiwan to
release China's economic and social tensions. While it won't abandon Taipei,
Washington will pull all the diplomatic levers at its disposal to keep
island politicians from provoking China.
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- Analysis
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- On Dec. 15, Richard Bush, managing director of the American
Institute in Taiwan, sent a very clear message to the frontrunners in the
upcoming March elections. "If the new Taiwan administration's policies
converge with our own interests, then there will be no problem. If they
do not, then we will discuss the differences in a spirit of friendship,"
Bush said. Bush added that the United States will adhere to the one-China
policy, which views Taiwan as a Chinese province.
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- Bush's statement was a friendly warning from Washington's
diplomatic arm into Taipei. Bush was clearly warning Taiwan's presidential
candidates: If they antagonize China during their upcoming campaigns, they
risk U.S. support for Taiwan. The statement revealed two important elements
in the U.S. position. First, Washington's interests demand continued peace
in the Taiwan Strait. Second, Washington sees China as increasingly cantankerous
and unstable, ready to pounce if provoked.
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- The United States has many reasons to anticipate an escalation
of tensions during the run-up to Taiwan's March 18 elections. The most
compelling may be historical precedent. Just before Taiwan's 1996 elections,
China launched missiles into its Taiwan's coastal waters, prompting the
United States to speed two carrier battle groups into the region to defuse
the crisis.
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- In recent months, President Lee Teng-hui has revived
antagonism by declaring that Taiwan has "special state-to-state"
relations with China; China promptly took this as an affront to its official
one- China policy. The president's statement has re-popularized the notion
of autonomy for Taiwan. Now all three presidential contenders have at least
stated that Taipei needs to negotiate with Beijing on equal footing. [
http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/m9912062245.htm ]
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- Bush's statements make clear that the United States is
reluctant to see cross-straits tension escalate. Both domestic and international
factors determine this stance. First, 2000 is an election year in the United
States as well, and China has already become a hot topic because of espionage
and campaign finance scandals. If the United States is involved in a military
confrontation with China, China will be the determinant issue in the American
presidential campaign.
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- In economic terms as well, the United States does not
want tension to burn the bridges that connect U.S. business interests to
the mainland. Only weeks ago, Washington's 13-year diplomatic initiative
to open China's markets to the world culminated in the signing of a bilateral
trade agreement which will help China become a member of the World Trade
Organization. The United States doesn't want a conflict in the strait to
trip up the agreement before investors reap the economic benefits of access
to China.
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- The United States has yet another reason to want peace
in the Taiwan Strait. The waters between China and Taiwan are the most
important shipping route in the region; cross-straits tension could halt
the flow of trade through the region, potentially endangering Asia's faltering
export-driven economic recovery. During the 1996 imbroglio, shipping was
disturbed for over two weeks. Japan was forced to divert one-third of its
ships from the area.
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- But it appears Washington senses that China is on edge.
Beijing could very easily respond to provocation with hostility. There
are some obvious reasons for this concern. Later this month, China will
regain control over Macau, freeing China to focus efforts on Taiwan, its
last unresolved territorial issue. Chinese President Jiang Zemin pointed
this out himself after his Dec. 10 summit with Russian President Boris
Yelstin.
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- Washington may finally be sensing as well that confrontation
with Taiwan could be a handy release valve for the pressures building up
within China. A nationalistic campaign to recover what is viewed as a renegade
province could successfully distract the Chinese people from the economic
malaise and dissatisfaction that have triggered over 60,000 protests this
year. China's instability has become increasingly apparent during the past
year. The government has lead a crackdown on Falun Gong and other organized
"threats" to stability, while methodically sealing off its borders.
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- In a full-blown crisis, the United States would probably
not abandon Taiwan outright. Strategically, the island is too essential
to U.S. policy in the region, which centers on containing China. The waters
around Taiwan are the gateway into the South China Sea, an important shipping
route and the link to the Koreas and Japan. If China were to control these
waters, it could effectively control the region. But Washington is clearly
going to do what it can to dampen the sentiments that favor autonomy or
independence for Taiwan.
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