- "The United States is the real victim of WikiLeaks.
It's an action aimed at discrediting them." Franco Frattini, Foreign
Minister of Italy
- The impact of the WikiLeaks release of diplomatic cables
fits the behavior profile of those well versed in game theory warfare.
- When Israeli mathematician Robert J. Aumann received
the 2005 Nobel Prize in economic science for his work on game theory, he
conceded, "the entire school of thought that we have developed here
in Israel" has turned "Israel into the leading authority in this
- The candor of this Israeli-American offered a rare insight
into an enclave long known for waging war from the shadows. Israel's most
notable success to date was "fixing" the intelligence that induced
the U.S. to invade Iraq in pursuit of a geopolitical agenda long sought
by Tel Aviv
- When waging intelligence wars, timing is often the critical
factor for game-theory war planners. The outcome of the WikiLeaks release
suggests a psy-ops directed at the U.S.
- Why now? Tel Aviv was feeling pressure to end its six-decade
occupation of Palestine. With this release, its foot-dragging on the peace
process was displaced with talk of an attack on Iran.
- While the U.S. bore the brunt of the damage, the target
was global public opinion. To maintain the plausibility of The Clash of
Civilizations, a focus must be maintained on Iran as a credible Evil Doer.
- With fast-emerging transparency, Israel and pro-Israelis
have been identified as the source of the intelligence that took coalition
forces to war in Iraq. Thus the need to shift attention off Tel Aviv.
- WikiLeaks may yet succeed in that mission.
- Foreseeable Futures
- Game theory war planning aims to create outcomes that
are predictable-within an acceptable range of probabilities. That's why
Israeli war planners focus on gaining traction for a plausible narrative
and then advancing that storyline step by gradual step.
- For the Zionist state to succeed with its expansionist
agenda, Iran must remain at center stage as an essential villain in a geopolitical
morality play pitting the West against Islamo Fascists.
- To displace facts with false beliefs-as with belief in
the intelligence that induced the invasion of Iraq-momentum must be maintained
for the storyline. Lose the plot (The Clash) and peace might break out.
And those deceived may identify the deceiver.
- Thus the timing of this latest WikiLeaks release. Its
goal: to have us believe that it is not Tel Aviv but Washington that is
the forefront of geopolitical duplicity and a source of Evil Doing.
- Intelligence wars rely on mathematical models to anticipate
the response of those targeted. With game theory algorithms, reactions
become foreseeable-within an acceptable range of probabilities.
- Control enough of the variables and outcomes become a
- The WikiLeaks Motive
- Was the reaction to this latest WikiLeaks foreseeable?
With exquisite timing, the U.S. was discredited with an array of revelations
that called into question U.S. motives and put in jeopardy U.S. relations
- As the Italian Foreign Minister summarized: "The
news released by WikiLeaks will change diplomatic relations between countries."
- The hard-earned trust of the Pakistanis disappeared overnight.
Attempts to engage Iran were set back. The overall effect advanced The
Clash storyline. If Washington could so badly misread North Korean intentions,
then why is the U.S. to be trusted when it comes to a nuclear Iran?
- This Wiki-catalyzed storyline pushed Israel off the front
page in favor of Iran.
- Even U.S. detainees at Guantanamo are again at issue,
reigniting that shameful spectacle as a provocation for extremism and terror.
U.S. diplomats will now be suspected of spying and lying. What nation can
now trust Americans to maintain confidences?
- In short, the risks increased for everyone.
- Except Israel.
- Should Israel launch an attack on Iran, Tel Aviv can
cite WikiLeaks as its rationale. Though an attack would be calamitous from
a human, economic and financial perspective, even that foreseeable outcome
would be dwarfed by the enduring hatred that would ensue.
- That too is foreseeable-from a game theory perspective
of those marketing The Clash.
- The effect of the U.S. invasion of Iraq was predictable.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia foresaw it, noting simply that the U.S. invasion
would "give Iraq to Iran as a gift on a golden platter."
- With the elimination of Sunni leader Saddam Hussein,
the numerically dominant Shiites of Iraq were drawn into the political
orbit of the Shiite-dominant Iran.
- Game theorists focus their manipulation of affairs on
their control of key variables. Then events take on a life all their own.
The impact of this discrediting release was wide-ranging and fully foreseeable.
- A Mossad case officer explained Israel's success at waging
war by way of deception: "Once the orchestra starts to play, we just
- These, after all, are the leading authorities in the
- Jeff Gates is author of Guilt By Association-How Deception
and Self-Deceit Took America to War. See <http://www.criminalstate.com>www.criminalstate.com