- On February 10, indications were he'd step down. He didn't,
but now it's official, vice president Suleiman saying he resigned, handing
power to Egypt's military. A New York Times alert said "a historic
popular uprising transformed politics in Egypt and around the Arab world."
-
- Times rhetoric way overstated reality as resolution remains
very much in doubt, though odds strongly favor continuity, not populist
change. More on that below.
-
- For the moment, however, huge Tahrir Square crowds erupted
in celebratory euphoria, perhaps forgetting their liberating struggle just
began. It didn't end with Mubarak's resignation. That was a baby step,
removing an aging dinosaur Washington and Egypt's military wanted out.
Now he's gone. Focus must follow through on what's next, requiring sustained
popular protests. Otherwise, everything gained will be lost.
-
- Behind the scenes, Washington and Egyptian military maneuvers
were involved. They're always crucial, not visible orchestrated events.
As a result, discerning reality is crucial. Hopefully, Egyptians understand,
knowing the folly of letting up now and losing out.
-
- Investigative journalist Wayne Madsen believes Obama
waffled to buy time for CIA operatives to secure and purge Egypt's torture
and rendition files, dating from when Attorney General Eric Holder was
Clinton's Deputy Attorney General in the 1990s.
-
- He also said Secretary of State Clinton wanted her husband
protected, and former White House chief of staff (now CIA head) Leon Panetta
had the same aim. Doing so, of course, requires keeping Washington-favorites
in power, permitting no uncertain alternatives, people Egyptians need for
real change.
-
- Besides short-lived confrontations, orchestrated street
violence was avoided. Whether it continues, however, is unknown as Egypt's
military is notoriously brutal, a different reality than most on Cairo
streets believe. Among them were hundreds, perhaps thousands experiencing
its harshness, for the moment at least lost in a sea of celebratory humanity.
-
- Behind the Scenes Washington Maneuvering
-
- Notably on January 31, Obama sent former US diplomat
Frank Wisner (son of WW II era intelligence chief Frank Wisner) to Cairo
ahead of Mubarak's February 1 address. His mission: tell him not to resign
until after September elections.
-
- Publicly, Wisner confirmed what White House officials
claimed reflected his position, not US policy. In fact, diplomats, past
or present, convey only the latter.
-
- Wisner noteworthy credentials include:
-
- -- Career Ambassador (the highest foreign service rank)
after serving as Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs,
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and ambassador to India, the Philippines,
Zambia and Egypt (1986 - 1991) when he and Mubarak became good friends;
- -- numerous corporate boards, past and present, including
Enron, AIG, Ethan Allen Interiors, eogresources, Commercial International
Bank (a leading Egyptian bank), Pharaomic American Life Insurance Company
(ALICO, Egypt), Pangea3, and the American University in Cairo; and
-
- -- currently an international affairs advisor to Patton
Boggs, an influential Washington-based lobbying firm.
-
- High-level and well-connected, his Cairo mission showed
Washington behind-the-scenes maneuvering to replace Mubarak, delay transition,
and install new faces under old policies, publicly portraying change -
the old bait and switch con on a world stage, though whether it works remains
highly uncertain. Expect months before clarity, maybe longer.
-
- Obama's Public Statement on Egypt
-
- Rhetoric always conceals policies, Obama's February 10
statement Exhibit A, saying:
-
- "As we have said from the beginning of this unrest,
the future of Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian people. But the
United States (stands for) core principles. We believe that the universal
rights of the Egyptian people must be respected, and their aspirations
must be met. We believe that this transition must immediately demonstrate
irreversible political change, and a negotiated path to democracy (with)
a roadmap to elections that are free and fair."
-
- Note:
-
- -- no transition timeline was mentioned, nor did Obama
call for Mubarak's immediate resignation with his entire regime popular
outrage wants out;
-
- -- political change masks business as usual;
-
- -- universal rights weren't specified nor were free and
fair elections defined; Washington won't tolerate either anywhere, including
at home; and
-
- -- vague sentiments were enunciated, masking Washington's
real agenda for new regime faces under old policies - no compromises, no
alternatives, no dissent, just hardline Realpolitik for unchallengeable
imperial control; not just in Egypt; everywhere.
-
- Obama's Real Agenda
-
- As part of Washington's Greater Middle East Project,
it includes neutralizing opponents, securing unchallengeable imperial control,
preventing democracy, rigging elections to assure it, militarizing the
region strategically, exploiting its resources and populations, orchestrating
events covertly, and deciding how and when they play out.
-
- In Egypt and throughout the region, they look similar
to US-orchestrated color revolutions in Serbia (the 1990s prototype), Georgia
(Rose), Ukraine (Orange), Myanmar (Saffron), Tibet (Crimson), Iran (Green),
and currently perhaps Tunisia (Jasmine), and elsewhere in the Middle East,
color-coded or not.
-
- They all have a common thread: what the Pentagon calls
"full spectrum dominance" for total global, space, sub-surface
and information control. Whether it succeeds, however, remains uncertain
given America's declining world influence and stature, including on Cairo
streets.
-
- A previous article discussed past color revolutions,
accessed through the following link:
-
- http://sjlendman.blogspot.com/2009/06/color-revolutions-old-and-new.html
-
- Egypt: What's Ahead
-
- For sure, Washington, the Pentagon and Egypt's military
will decide, not Mubarak (an aging, now ousted dinosaur), Suleiman or other
hated regime figures. Stratfor's George Friedman believes Egypt's military
aims to save the regime, not Mubarak, suggesting three possible outcomes
before he resigned:
-
- -- continuing standing aside, letting crowds assemble
and march peacefully to the presidential palace and elsewhere on Cairo
streets;
-
- -- blocking more protesters from entering Tahrir Square,
containing those already there; or
-
- -- replacing Mubarak with temporary military rule.
-
- Egypt's military coup ousted him. He didn't resign. He
was pushed, the heavy shoving from Washington. It's not clear if Suleiman
will stay on. Hopefully public anger won't tolerate him or other regime
figures, given how much they're hated.
-
- So far, confrontations have been avoided. Doing so now
"would undermine the military's desire to preserve the regime"
and its people-friendly perception. Friedman believes options one and two
were unacceptable. "That means military action" unseating him.
Only the timing wasn't known until now.
-
- On February 11 Friedman's Red Alert update said:
-
- "Egypt is returning to the 1952 model of ruling
the state via a council of army officers. The question now is to what extent
the military elite will share power with its civilian counterparts."
-
- "The fate of Mubarak's National Democratic Party
(NDP)" remains unknown. Without it, "the regime will have effectively
collapsed and the military could run into greater difficulty in running
the country," ahead of elections whenever they're held.
-
- For now, Egypt's military council comprises provisional
rule. Very likely it'll want retained NDP elements and opposition parties
help in managing transition. It's biggest challenge is "avoid(ing)
regime change while also dealing with a potential constitutional crisis."
-
- Popular pressure, however, must demand regime change,
a clean sweep, ending emergency law powers immediately, and democratic
constitutional changes.
-
- Al Jazeera: "Hosni Mubarak Resigns as President"
-
- On February 11, Al Jazeera reported massive crowds in
Tahrir Square, a day called "Farewell Friday." Cairo and Alexandria
images showed wall-to-wall humanity as far as the eye could see, by far
the largest demonstrations so far after protesters called for millions
to come out for "a last and final stage."
-
- Despite mass public anger, tensions between army forces
and crowds were absent, restraint very much shown, but how long will depend
on unfolding events under the new military rule.
-
- Earlier, AP said Mubarak flew to Sharm el-Sheik, the
Red Sea resort 250 miles from Cairo.
-
- The New York Times also reported a "Western official
(saying) that Mr. Mubarak had left the capital, (and that) the Supreme
Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces issued a statement over state television
and radio indicating that the military, not Mr. Mubarak, was in effective
control of the country."
-
- In fact, a coup d'etat replaced him, but what follows
or its timeline isn't known. What is known is that mass public anger and
nationwide strikes effectively shut down the country beyond what any force
could control.
-
- The reaction following Mubarak's address, followed by
Suleiman's, showed two officials disengaged from reality. As a result,
Mohamed ElBaradei, now an opposition figure, responded bluntly, saying:
-
- "I ask the army to intervene immediately to save
Egypt. The credibility of the army is being put to the test."
-
- In a top-featured February 11 New York Times op-ed, he
said:
-
- "Egypt will not wait forever on this caricature
of a leader we witnessed on television yesterday evening, deaf to the voice
of the people, hanging on obsessively to power that is no longer his to
keep....We are at the dawn of a new Egypt....We have nothing to fear but
the shadow of a repressive past."
-
- Al Jazeera reported him saying Egypt "will explode"
unless military forces intervene. They did but haven't explained what's
ahead beyond commonplace boilerplate rhetoric - for sure no democracy according
to Reuters quoting a National Security Council participant saying:
-
- "What the US isn't saying publicly is that it's
putting its power behind (Egypt's) generals. The goal is to stack the deck
in favor of the status quo - a scenario that removes Mubarak, yet is otherwise
more about continuity than change."
-
- In other words, Obama's "orderly transition democracy,"
substitutes rhetoric for constructive change neither he nor others in Washington
will tolerate. As a result, people power faces imperial Washington and
Egypt's military, united against populist change. However, what develops
regionally remains unknown. Resolution can go either way or some unacceptable
middle-ground compromise. Avoiding it is crucial, but doing so means continuing
daily protests until all essential demands are met.
-
- A Final Comment
-
- According to Human Right Watch (HRW) and London Guardian
reports, the professed neutrality and public persona of Egypt's military
belie its harshness.
-
- On February 9, Guardian writer Chris McGreal headlined,
"Egypt's army 'involved in detentions and torture,' " saying:
-
- Military forces "secretly detained hundreds and
possibly thousands of suspected government opponents since mass (anti-Mubarak)
protests began, (and) at least some of these detainees have been tortured,
according to testimony gathered by the Guardian."
-
- Moreover, HRW and other human rights organizations cited
years of army involvement in disappearances and torture. Former detainees
confirmed "extensive beatings and other abuses at the hands of the
military in what appears to be an organized campaign of intimidation."
Electric shocks, Taser guns, threatened rapes, beatings, disappearances,
and perhaps killings left families grieving for loved ones.
-
- HRW researcher Heba Morayef said, "I think it's
become pretty obvious by now that the military is not a neutral party.
The military doesn't want and doesn't believe in the protests and this
is even at the lower level, based on the interrogations."
-
- Allied with Washington, the Pentagon and US intelligence,
it supports power, not populist change, a dark reality street protesters
better grasp to know what's coming from a post-Mubarak regime. Unless challenged,
promised reforms will leave entrenched policies in place, enforcing predatory
capitalism with police state harshness, what Americans also endure under
friendly-face leaders.
-
- Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at
lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com
and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the
Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays
at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs
are archived for easy listening.
-
- http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/.
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