- The recent visit of US President Obama to Turkey was
far more significant than the President's speech would suggest. For Washington
Turkey today has become a geopolitical "pivot state" which is
in the position to tilt the Eurasian power equation towards Washington
or significantly away from it depending on how Turkey develops its ties
with Moscow and its role regarding key energy pipelines.
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- If Ankara decides to collaborate more closely with Russia,
Georgia's position is precarious and Azerbaijan's natural gas pipeline
route to Europe, the so-called Nabucco Pipeline, is blocked. If it cooperates
with the United States and manages to reach a stable treaty with Armenia
under US auspices, the Russian position in the Caucasus is weakened and
an alternative route for natural gas to Europe opens up, decreasing Russian
leverage against Europe.
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- For Washington the key to bringing Germany into closer
cooperation with the US is to weaken German dependence on Russian energy
flows. Twice in the past three wintersWashington has covertly incited its
hand-picked President in Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko to arrange an arbitrary
cut off of Russian gas flows to Germany and other EU destinations. The
only purpose of the actions was to convince EU governments that Russia
was not a reliable energy partner. Now, with the Obama visit to Ankara,
Washington is attempting to win Turkish support for its troubled Nabucco
alternative gas pipeline through Turkey from Azerbaijan which would theoretically
at least lessen EU dependence on Russian gas.
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- The Turkish-EU problem
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- However willing Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan might
be to accommodate Obama, the question of Turkish relations with the EU
is inextricably linked with the troublesome issue of Turkish membership
to the EU, a move vehemently opposed by France and also less openly by
Germany.
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- Turkey is one of the only routes energy from new sources
can cross to Europe from the Middle East, Central Asia or the Caucasus.
If Turkey - which has considerable influence in the Caucasus, Central Asia,
Ukraine, the Middle East and the Balkans - is prepared to ally with the
United States, Russia is on the defensive and German ties to Russia weaken
considerably. If Turkey decides to cooperate with Russia instead, Russia
retains the initiative and Germany is dependent on Russian energy. Since
it became clear in Moscow that US strategy was to extend NATO to Russia's
front door via Ukraine and Georgia, Russia has moved to use its economic
"carrot" its vast natural gas resources, to at the very least
neutralize Western Europe, especially Germany, towards Russia. It is notable
in that regard that the man chosen as Russia's President in December 1999
had spent a significant part of his KGB career in Germany.
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- Turkey and the US Game
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- It is becoming clear that Obama and Washington are playing
a deeper game. A few weeks before the meetings, when it had become obvious
that the Europeans were not going to bend on the issues such as troops
for Afghanistan or more economic stimulus that concerned the United States,
Obama scheduled the trip to Turkey.
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- During the recent EU meetings in Prague Obama actively
backed Turkey's application for EU membership knowing well that that put
especially France and Germany in a difficult position as EU membership
would allow free migration which many EU countries fear. Obama deliberately
confronted EU states with this knowing he was playing with geopolitical
fire, especially as the US is no member of the EU. It was a deliberate
and cheap way to score points with the Erdogan government of Turkey.
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- During the NATO meeting, a key item on the agenda was
the selection of a new alliance secretary-general. The favorite was former
Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Turkey opposed him because
of his defense of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed published in
a Danish magazine. NATO operates on consensus, so any one member can block
Rasmussen. The Turks backed off the veto, and in return won two key positions
in NATO, including that of deputy secretary-general.
- Turkey thereby boosted its standing in NATO, got Obama
to vigorously defend the Turkish application for membership in the European
Union, which of course the United Statesdoes not belong to. Obama then
went to Turkey for a key international meeting that will allow him to further
position the United States in relation to Islam.
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- Obama has a Grand Strategy to use Turkey to isolate Russia
via Nabucco pipelines through Georgia and Armenia to the EU
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- The Obama Erdogan talks were perhaps the most strategic
of the recent Obama tour
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- The Russian Dimension
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- During US-Russian talks there had been no fundamental
shift by Obama from the earlier position of the Bush Administration. Russia
rejects Washington's idea of pressuring IUran on their nuclear program
in return for a bargain of an undefined nature with Washington over US
planned missile and radar bases in Poland and theCzech Republic. The US
claimed it need not rely on Russia to bring military and other supplies
into Afghanistan, claiming it had reached agreement with Ukraine to transship
mililtary supplies, a move designed by Washington to increase friction
between Moscow and Kiew. Moreover, the NATO communique did not abandon
the idea ofUkraine and Georgia being admitted to NATO. The key geopolitical
prize for Washington remains Moscow but clearly Turkey is being wooed by
Obama to play a role in that game.
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- Germany will clearly not join Obama in blocking Russia.
Not only does Germany depend on Russia for energy supplies. She has no
desire to confront a Russia that Berlinsees as no real immediate threat
to Germany. For Berlin, at least now, they are not going to address the
Russian question.
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- At the same time, an extremely important event between
Turkey and Armenia is shaping up. Armenians had long held Turkey responsible
for the mass murder of Armenians during and after World War I, a charge
the Turks have denied. The US Congress is considering a provocative resolution
condeming "Turkish genocide" agianst Armenians. Turkey is highly
sensitive to these charges, and Congressional passage of such a resolution
would have meant a Turkish break in diplomatic relations withWashington.
Now since the Obama visit Ankara has begun to discuss an agreement with
Armenia including diplomatic relations which would eliminate the impact
of any potential US Congress resolution.
- A Turkish opening to Armenia would alter the balance
of power in the entire region. Since the August 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict
the Caucasus, a strategically vital area to Moscow has been unstable. Russian
troops remain in South Ossetia. Russia also has troops in Armenia meaning
Russia has Georgia surrounded.
- Turkey is the key link in this complex game of geopolitical
balance of power between Washington and Moscow. If Turkey decides to collaborate
with Russia Georgia's position becomes very insecure and Azerbaijan's possible
pipeline route to Europe is blocked. If Turkey decides to cooperate with
Washington and at the same time reaches a stable agreement with Armenia
under US guidance, Russia's entire position in the Caucasus is weakened
and an alternative route for natural gas to Europe becomes available, reducing
Russian leverage against Western Europe.
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- Therefore, having sat through fruitless meetings with
the Europeans, Obama chose not to cause a pointless confrontation with
a Europe that is out of options. Instead, Obama completed his trip by going
to Turkey to discuss what the treaty with Armenia means and to try to convince
the Turks to play for high stakes by challenging Russiain the Caucasus,
rather than playing Russia's junior partner.
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- The most important Obama speech in his European tour
came after Turkey won key posts in the NATO political structure with US
backing. In his speech Obama sided withTurkey against the EU and in effect
showed Turkey Washington was behind her. Obama's speech addressed Turkey
as an emerging regional power, which was well received in Ankara. The sweet
words will cost Turkey dearly if it acts on them.
- Moscow is not sitting passively by as Washington woos
Turkey. Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a four-day visit to the Russian
Federation this February, where he met with President Dmitry Medvedev,
Prime Minister Putin, and also traveled to Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan,
where he discussed joint investments. Gul was accompanied by his minister
for foreign trade and minister of energy, as well as a large delegation
of Turkish businessmen. The stakes in this complex three-way Great Game
for domination of Eurasia have been raised significantly following the
Obama trip to Ankara. Turkey imports 65 percent of its natural gas and
25 percent of its oil from Russia. Therefore, Turkey is also developing
a growing dependency on Russian energy resources, including coal.
- On March 27, 2009, a memorandum was signed between the
Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR and Russia's Gazprom. The memorandum includes
a statement of deliveries, beginning in January 2010, of Azerbaijani natural
gas to Russia.
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- Gazprom was particularly interested in signing such an
agreement with Azerbaijan, not the least because Azerbaijan is the only
state outside Iran or Turkmenistan, both of which are problematic, that
could supply gas to the planned EU Nabucco pipeline, for transporting natural
gas from Azerbaijan and the Central Asia states through Turkeyto south-eastern
Europe. In reality, gas may come only from Azerbaijan. Russia has proposed
an alternative to Nabucco project, South Stream, also in need of Azerbaijani
gas, so in effect Russia weakens the chances of realization of Nabucco.
Obama strategy is clearly not less confrontational with Russia. It is merely
playing with a slightly different deck of cards than did Cheney and Bush.
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