- WASHINGTON - U.S. air strikes on Iraq won't produce miracles, two
former CIA chiefs warned Thursday.
-
- John Deutch and James Woolsey told the
House National Security Committee attacks will neither topple Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein nor eliminate his chemical or biological weapons. Deutch
said air strikes may have some benefit and certainly are better than doing
nothing. And Woolsey said he supports strikes only as part of a broader
strategy to destabilize Iraq's ruling party.
-
- Mostly, however, the two former intelligence
chiefs, both of whom served under President Clinton, cautioned against
expecting too much.
-
- "The problem with Iraq will not
be solved by an air campaign," Deutch said. "I do not believe
that an air campaign will topple the Saddam Hussein regime in the short
run." Moreover, he said, "An air campaign is unlikely to destroy
all the stockpiles" of chemical and biological weapons.
-
- Even if air strikes managed to destroy
all Iraq's chemical and biological stocks, he said, they could be quickly
replaced with a new production program.
-
- "It is only a little harder to make
anthrax than it is to run a small microbrewery," Woolsey said, referring
to a deadly biological agent. "Indeed, the processes and the necessary
size of the facilities rather resemble one another."
-
- Woolsey criticized Clinton's "flaccid
responses" to Iraqi provocations - including the 1994 Iraqi intelligence
service's plot to assassinate former President Bush and the 1996 incursion
by Iraqi forces into Kurdish sections of northern Iraq. After both events,
Clinton sent cruise missiles against targets in Iraq.
-
- "Saddam has doubtless concluded
that, almost no matter what he does, he will only have to endure air strikes
for a limited period of time and that he can use those to rally support,
especially in the Arab world," Woolsey said. Nor is Iraq at risk of
being caught by surprise, he said: "If air strikes occur in the next
few weeks, this may be the most telegraphed punch in military history."
-
- The two former intelligence chiefs did
not agree entirely with one another. Deutch said air strikes would at least
punish Saddam for ignoring U.N. sanctions, would inflict damage on his
weapons capability and would encourage anti-Saddam elements in Iraq.
-
- Doing nothing would send an even worse
sign around the world," Deutch said.
-
- Woolsey, by contrast, said even the Clinton
administration's limited goal of using air strikes to reduce Iraq's ability
to develop weapons of mass destruction and menace its neighbors would do
little good.
-
- Saddam is likely to respond to impending
air attacks by placing civilians in harm's way so he could blame the casualties
on the United States, Woolsey said. Saddam might even "kill them himself"
if the bombs failed to do the job for him.
-
- At the end of the strikes, Saddam and
his Ba'ath regime would maintain its grip on power. Woolsey rejected as
"extremely irresponsible" calls to assassinate Saddam.
-
- "Instead we need a solid program,
in my view, to break the power of Saddam's regime. Some elements of that
program could include air strikes," he said.
-
- Other elements of a campaign against
Iraq could include widening the United Nations-imposed flight-interdiction
zone to cover the entire country, instead of just the northern and southern
tiers, a step that would have to be preceded by the destruction of Iraq's
air defense system, Woolsey said. The United States could recognize the
Iraqi government in exile and provide "vigorous air protection"
for the Kurdish population in the north and the Shiite Muslim population
in the south.
-
- Woolsey headed the CIA from 1993 to 1995.
Deutch succeeded him and served until December 1996.
-
- Deutch's chances of becoming secretary
of defense were believed to have been truncated by public testimony he
gave in the fall of 1996 that Saddam emerged politically stronger from
a recent clash with the United States. On Thursday, Deutch testified that
Saddam "remains politically strong because of his skill at balancing
competing political interests in the region."
-
- By The Associated Press
|