- PRINCETON, NJ (Reuters) -
The CIA on Friday released 859 secret documents of Cold War analysis on
issues ranging from the impact of a Polish Pope on the Soviet Union to
the response to former President Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars"
plan.
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- The release of the previously classified Central Intelligence
Agency documents, written between 1947 and 1991, was timed to coincide
with a two-day conference at Princeton University on the CIA's analysis
of the Soviet Union.
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- "This is a treasure trove of great material,"
Lloyd Salvetti, director of the Central Intelligence Agency's Center for
the Study of Intelligence, said. The documents will be available on the
CIA's Web site www.foia.ucia.gov.
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- A 1987 analysis of the Soviet's response options to Reagan's
1983 Strategic Defense Initiative known as "Star Wars" concluded
that the Soviets were likely to pursue arms control measures to gain U.S.
concessions on the proposal.
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- A 1981 intelligence report said there was "conclusive
evidence" that the Soviet Union supported revolutionary groups that
used "terrorism", specifically mentioning El Salvador.
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- And a 1963 paper showed U.S. intelligence analysts at
odds with each other over how close the United States and Soviet Union
came to the brink of nuclear war during the October 1962 Cuban missile
crisis.
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- IMPACT OF POPE
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- A 1978 CIA memo said the selection of a Polish Pope,
John Paul II, would be "extremely worrisome to Moscow" because
it would make it more difficult to integrate Poles more closely into a
communist Soviet-dominated system of alliances.
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- Other CIA documents throughout the period addressed the
outlook for Soviet commodities such as oil, grain, and gold, and analyzed
Soviet relations with countries such as China, India, North Vietnam, Nicaragua,
Iraq and Cuba.
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- Some material echoed themes relevant today such as a
1978 analysis on the flare-up of nationalist sentiment in the Soviet Transcaucasus
and a 1988 analysis of unrest in the Caucasus. Russia has recently engaged
in fighting separatists in the southern rebel province of Chechnya.
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- Since the newly-released CIA documents were products
of the analysis division they did not cover clandestine operations.
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- Still, the reports were "carefully scrubbed"
to exclude intelligence sources or sensitive information that could impact
current U.S. relations with other countries, Ed Cohen, director of CIA's
Office of Information Management, said.
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- In addition to the CIA documents, 12 National Intelligence
Estimates (NIEs) from the National Intelligence Council were released.
NIEs can include input from all U.S. intelligence agencies and focus on
issues such as Soviet weapons.
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- Gerald Haines, the CIA's chief historian, said analysis
of the NIEs showed they continued to overestimate the Soviet missile build-up
in the 1980s.
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- A September 1991 CIA analysis of the defense implications
of a break up of the Soviet Union concluded that a Russia without Ukraine
and other republics would "retain the potential of a major military
power."
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- GORBACHEV'S SOBRIETY CAMPAIGN
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- In 1986 the CIA analyzed Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's
anti-alcohol campaign and concluded that success in curtailing alcohol
abuse, when consumption had doubled over the prior 30 years, would strengthen
his political position.
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- Several analyzes of Gorbachev's policies were released,
and Salvetti said the documents showed U.S. analysts "trying to keep
pace with a rapidly moving train."
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- He added: "It was often the case where analysts
were just trying to determine what it is that Gorbachev's intentions were
when it was really hard for Gorbachev himself to understand where he was
going."
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- A 1986 CIA report said a controversial Soviet radar under
construction in Krasnoyarsk was mainly for ballistic missile detection
and tracking rather than for satellite detection as the Soviets argued.
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- CIA's analysis was the basis for U.S. administration
policy which declared the radar a violation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty and that it be dismantled, CIA historians said.
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- Haines said the newly-released documents overall showed
how CIA analysis became based more on facts rather than speculation after
technical means of gathering information were employed.
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- In the late 1940s and early 1950s, the CIA was operating
with "no eyes and ears," he said. But then the U-2 spy plane
and Corona spy satellite began operating and "gave the United States
tremendous advantage," Haines said.
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