- (This Can't Be Happening) -- Every horror movie has that
"Oh Shit!" moment, when the hero or heroes are huddled in some
creepy hideout, and suddenly something happens that tells you that the
monster is just around the corner, or just about to attack. In "Jurassic
Park" it was the pulsing ripples in a cup of water, heralding the
arrival of a T-Rex. In "Jaws" it was the deep base music, letting
you know that a monstrous shark was about to attack.
- Well, we just got our "Oh Shit!" moment with
the just-announced resignation of Admiral William J. Fallon, the military
commander of US Middle East operations.
- Adm. Fallon, 63, famously said that an attack on Iran
would not happen "on my watch," and is widely believed to have
already threatened, along with a number of other top generals and admirals,
to quit the service if the Bush administration were to launch an air attack
- Put the pieces together. We know that the vice president
is obsessed with a desire to attack Iran, and has been since before he
even took office. Bush has repeatedly stressed that Iran cannot be permitted
to continue with its nuclear processing (he calls it their "nukular"
bomb program, though there is no evidence that the country has a nuclear
bomb development program, and in fact the last National Intelligence Estimate
on Iran said there was not and hadn't been since 2003). And Fallon has
- The Eisenhower nuclear aircraft carrier strike force
has departed for stationing off Iran, joining forces already in place there,
and loaded to the brim with strike aircraft, Tomahawk missiles, and even
nuclear weapons. It was long ago reported that stealth bombers had been
put in place in come of the countries of the old Soviet Union north of
Iran, as well as on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
- All the elements, that is to say, are in place for a
massive air assault on Iranian targets, designed to destroy its nuclear
program, cripple its military command and control, and--at least this is
a stated Cheney goal--to lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government
by its own people.
- It is, of course, the strategy of madmen.
- The US has no forces to send into Iran. All they can
do is bomb it. And bombing a country doesn't lead its people to rise up.
It leads them to rally 'round the flag. Especially when the civilian casualties
of our not-so-"smart" bombs start to soar.
- If such an attack were to happen, we can kiss goodbye
to six years of domestic peace, such as we've had. The Iranians have considerable
capability to inflict damage on US targets of interest, both overseas and
here in the domestic US using assymetrical warfare techniques. The worse
part is, they'd be completely justified in doing so, since any attack on
them would be a crime against peace--the gravest of all international crimes.
- American troops already mired and pinned down in a war
in Iraq, would find themselves suddenly under attack by Shia forces there,
who for several years now have been largely leaving them alone.
- And oil, which just bumped up against $110 a barrel,
an all-time record, will double in price overnight, as the whole Persian
Gulf becomes a war zone.
- We can expect massive launches of small boats armed with
missiles and torpedoes, as well as sophisticated anti-ship missiles from
shore batteries, all fired at US ships in the Gulf, and it would be astounding
if some or even many vessels of the US fleet weren't sunk.
- Meanwhile, tanker traffic in the Gulf, which accounts
for 20% or more of the world's oil, will cease as insurance rates for those
vessels goes through the roof.
- The monster of war will be unleashed, and will not easily
be defeated. That's why Adm. Fallon was so opposed to the whole idea. He
knows that it will be a disaster for the US militarily, economically and
- The worst part is that Cheney knows this, too. He just
doesn't care. This is the man's parting shot as he leaves office--to put
the country into the throes of a war so vicious that no one will think
of pursuing him for his long list of crimes against the nation and the
- He is guessing--and he may be right--that the American
public will, sheep-like as always, rally to the cause, with a new round
of yellow magnet "ribbons" on their cars. He is hoping--and he
may be right-- that war will be a boon for the candidacy of Republican
John McCain and for embattled Republicans running for Congress.
- It's a kind of political Hail Mary.
- Oh Shit! Here it comes...