- WASHINGTON -- The Senate
is currently considering the DREAM Act (S.2205). Some have argued that
only 60,000 illegal immigrants would be granted amnesty annually under
the Act, but a new analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies of 2007
Census Bureau data shows millions of potential beneficiaries.
-
- # An estimated 800,000 illegal immigrants under age 17
have been here long enough to qualify for legalization under the DREAM
Act. There are a total of 1.7 million illegal aliens estimated to be under
age 17.
-
- # There are an estimated 900,000 parents of illegal aliens
under age 17 who qualify. It is unclear whether the government would deport
these parents.
-
- # The DREAM Act is also unclear as to what will happen
to the siblings of legalized illegals who are themselves illegal, but do
not meet the Act's requirements. There are an estimated 500,000 of these
siblings.
-
- # The DREAM Act also allows illegal aliens ages 18 to
29 to legalize if they claim to have arrived prior to age 16. We estimate
1.3 million meet this requirement. There are a total of 4.4 million illegal
aliens in this age group.
-
- # Thus the total number of potential amnesty beneficiaries
is 2.1 million (assuming no fraud). This does not include 1.4 million siblings
and parents of qualifying illegals who may end up receiving a de facto
amnesty.
-
- # Prior legalization programs have been plagued by fraud.
One-fourth (700,000) of those legalized in the 1986 amnesty are estimated
to have done so fraudulently.
-
- # Given the difficultly in determining whether an applicant
meets the DREAM Act's amnesty requirements, coupled with the overworked
nature of the immigration bureaucracy, fraud could be a significant problem.
-
- Methodology: These estimates are based on a Center for
Immigration Studies analysis of the March 2007 Current Population Survey
(CPS) collected by the Census Bureau. No estimate is definitive, of course,
but the Urban Institute, the Pew Hispanic Center, and the INS have all
used the March CPS to estimate the size of the illegal population. We estimated
that the survey included more than 11 million illegals in 2007. This is
entirely consistent with prior research. The above numbers do NOT include
those illegal aliens missed by the Census Bureau's survey. The Department
of Homeland Security and other researchers have estimated that 10 percent
of illegals are likely missed in Census Bureau surveys of this kind. Thus,
the actual number of potential beneficiaries is almost certainly higher
than the numbers discussed above.
-
- We use the demographic characteristics of respondents
to distinguish legal and illegal immigrants in the survey. We combine this
with the estimated number of legal immigrants in the country. This method
is based on some very well-established facts about the characteristics
of the legal and illegal population and is consistent with other research
that employs the same approach to estimate the illegal population.
-
- Contact: Steven Camarota
- (202) 466-8185, <mailto:sac@cis.org>sac@cis.org
- The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent
research institute
- which examines the impact of immigration on the United
States.
-
-
- Center for Immigration Studies
- 1522 K St. NW, Suite 820
- Washington, DC 20005
- (202) 466-8185 fax: (202) 466-8076
- center@cis.org <http://www.cis.org>www.cis.org
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