- As a reporter, it's always fun when a trusted and reliable
source pulls my coat to what's really going on behind the media hype.
In this case, it was an article posted at the www.energybulletin.net side
by Richard Heinberg titled "Middle East as a Crossroads".
The paragraph that will drive the US to attack Iran before year's end is
- At the ASPO conference a well-connected industry
insider who wishes not to be directly quoted told me that his own sources
inside Saudi Arabia insist that production from Ghawar is now down to less
than three million barrels per day, and that the Saudis are maintaining
total production at only slowly dwindling levels by producing other fields
at maximum rates. This, if true, would be a bombshell: most estimates give
production from Ghawar at 5.5 Mb/d.
- My source, a highly respected oil industry consultant,
goes on to advise me that "If true, it is not unexpected, and it means
that the two largest producing fields in the world are crashing. BTW, the
Saudi stock market crashed earlier this year because of heavy insider selling
by the Saudi royal family. Ghawar + Cantarell crashing means explosive
increases in oil prices."
- So, if you look at the prospect of $200 oil, the Chinese
cutting supply deals with Iran, and the Russians buying them nuclear development
materials, it means that Iran (which will be putting out about 5% of the
entire world's energy supplies as Cantarell and Ghawar production collapses
will become an even more strategic asset. The clock is running on
an energy-driven die-off and the neocons and a lot of others know the hour
is late and, as energy banker Matthews Simmons has said so many times,
the West doesn't have a "Plan B."
- Bottom line: If the water-injection to Ghawar is causing
it's sudden death right now (as leading researchers like Chip Haynes have
been warning of since 2001) then the US is quickly getting into a corner
and instead of using what we have lots of (brains) and anticipating the
worst case (like a crash alternative energy program) we're trying to take
the military solution, ignoring the fact that such tactics use tons of
energy and wreck the planet along the way.