- After 18 days of heavy air and artillery attacks and
intensive ground assaults, the Israeli defense forceshave been unable to
stop Hezbollah rocket attacks, which continue to pour into northern Israeli
cities. Inresponse, the Israeli military is now threatening a scorched
earth policy (total destruction) against anyLebanese village where rockets
are fired from.
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- The emergency International conference in Rome on the
Lebanon war turned out to be more of thesame: the European Union calling
for an immediate cease fire, and the US refusing to allow it. Secretaryof
State Rice kept repeating the same refrain: "no cease fire that would
maintain the status quo," which,frankly, is a change in policy for
the US. It is the first time in history the US has ever opposed a ceasefire
in the Middle East. Usually, they are chomping at the bit to stop Israel
from consolidating a militaryvictory. Something else is happening this
time. Furthermore, in the ultimate form of hypocrisy, and aradical departure
from past peacekeeping missions to Lebanon, Secretary of State Condolezza
Rice usedcarefully worded language to say that no US forces would be included
in the proposed peacekeepingmission.
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- The US is now talking about providing training to beef
up the Lebanese Army so that it can successfullyoccupy the southern Lebanon
area and keep out Hezbollah. However, the Lebanese Army (which waspurged
of the Israeli-friendly Christian elements) is largely composed of Shiites,
who are the base ofsupport for Hezbollah. This sounds like another Iraq
training fiasco in the making.
-
- Israel's Justice Minister Haim Ramon took the decision
from Rome as a green light to continue theattacks on Lebanon. These conclusions
provoked an immediate and negative response from Europe. Inresponse, the
Israeli government said it would not be expanding its ground war in Southern
Lebanon,though it was clearly prepared to do so as it called up another
30,000 reservists this week. I think theyhave no choice but to continue
the war until the IDF can reach a point at which they can plausible claimthat
Hezbollah is defeated. It won't be true, but if they stop short of an
apparent victory over Hezbollah,the Israeli government will incur the wrath
of the public, which supports eradicating Hezbollah.
-
- The only thing really at issue now is how much of a buffer
zone Israel is going to demand and how muchof the Southern area of Lebanon
the UN forces can control even as Hezbollah re-infiltrates. Israel is
onlytalking about a buffer zone of a mile from the border, which is nothing
to Hezbollah. If Israel proceedsalong that line of thinking, we can be
assured they are not serious about curtailing Hezbollah. A swath30 miles
deep would be required to get Hezbollah's short range missiles from doing
damage across theborder.
-
- Who will stop Hezbollah from reforming once the fighting
has stopped? Israel has reiterated, evenas it forms for a larger ground
assault, that it has no interest in re-occupying Lebanon. It only wants
toeradicate Hezbollah from the south. My question is: who is going to
stop Hezbollah from reforming oncethe Israeli's leave? History has shown
UN peacekeeping troops, which have been in Southern Lebanonfor years, are
impotent or unwilling to directly confront insurgents.
-
- In other news, it was revealed this week, by Gerald Steinberg,
professor of political science at Bar-IlanUniversity in Israel that, "[T]he
preparation [for the ongoing assault on Lebanon] began in May 2000, immediately
after the Israeli withdrawal, when it became clear the international community
was notgoing to prevent Hezbollah from stockpiling missiles and attacking
Israel. By 2004, the militarycampaign scheduled to last about three weeks
that we're seeing now had already been blocked out and, inthe last year
or two, it's been simulated and rehearsed across the board."
-
- "More than a year ago, a senior Israeli army officer
began giving PowerPoint presentations, on an off-the-record basis, to U.S.
and other diplomats, journalists and think tanks, setting out the plan
for thecurrent operation in revealing detail. Under the ground rules of
the briefings, the officer could not beidentified. In his talks, the officer
described a three-week campaign: The first week concentrated ondestroying
Hezbollah's heavier long-range missiles, bombing its command-and-control
centers, anddisrupting transportation and communication arteries. In the
second week, the focus shifted to attacks onindividual sites of rocket
launchers or weapons stores. In the third week, ground forces in large
numberswould be introduced, but only in order to knock out targets discovered
during reconnaissance missions asthe campaign unfolded. There was no plan,
according to this scenario, to reoccupy southern Lebanon ona long-term
basis." Bottom line: this is not a spontaneous reaction to the kidnaping
of two soldiers. It ismeant to provoke a response from Syria, and that
may yet happen: The Syrian information minister saidthis week that his
country could enter the Israel-Hezbollah conflict if IDF forces invade
Lebanon andapproach the Syrian border. That could easily be arranged!
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- World Affairs Brief July 28, 2006. Copyright Joel Skousen.
Partial quotations with attributionpermitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen's
World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com)
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