- Hello Jeff - Here is the latest...a new ProMed post updating
the earlier story about the Japanese WHO scientist.
-
- At this point in time, I simply don't know what to believe.
One article claims Dr. Tashiro stated an unnamed Chinese source reports
there are 300 dead...with many human-to-human transmitted. Yet, another
article states Dr. Tashiro did not talk to anyone in Germany about the
numbers of Chinese bird flu deaths. It is all confusing at this point.
-
- I think that Boxun (China news agency) may be moved to
report by political restraints and the Chinese Govt. is moved to report
lower numbers also by political motive. I have no idea if the previous
article is accurate.
-
- All we can do is post both sides. The truth is somewhere
in between.
-
- I wrote to Promed about the confusion in numbers and
they sent me the following story. The original story is located below
it.
-
- Patty
-
- AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN - EAST ASIA (182): CHINA
-
- A ProMED-mail post
http://www.promedmail.org
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
http://www.isid.org
-
- [1]
Date: Thu 24 Nov 2005
From: "Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN"
mtashiro@nih.go.jp
-
- Statement from Dr. Masato Tashiro
-
- I am surprised to read the report in ProMED-mail, Avian
influenza,human - East Asia (180): China, RFI [part 1] {archive number
20051123.3399).
-
- First of all, it is not correct. Therefore, I would ask
you to correct it.
-
- In my presentation at the meeting in Marburg, I stated
that WHO's official numbers of H5N1 human cases are only based on laboratory
confirmed cases. It should be therefore an iceberg phenomenon. Due to
poorly organized surveillance and information sharing systems in many affected
countries including China, it is reasonable to consider that more cases
have actually occurred actually.
-
- We have heard many 'rumors' or unauthorized information
which we cannot confirm. In this context, I talked about a few examples
of non-authorized information and rumors about Asian countries which I
received through private channels. I clarified that I do not know the original
sources and I cannot confirm whether they are true, how these numbers were
derived and what laboratory tests and epidemiological investigation were
done.
-
- Therefore, the article cited in ProMed-mail is incorrect
and misleading. I did not receive any interview during my stay in Germany.
I did not say anything that I believe the figures of the unauthorized information.
-
- My message at the meeting was that international societies
should help China to establish and perform nationwide surveillance and
information sharing systems. I do not think that the Chinese Authority
will conceal the facts from the world. Since the SARS event, they are
collaborative to WHO. But they may have still limited capacity to monitor
all human cases particularly in rural areas.
-
- --
Masato Tashiro, NIID JPN
WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Surveillance on Influenza,
National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo
mtashiro@nih.go.jp
-
- (The article published in the Tue 22 Nov 2005 edition
of the Frankfurter Allgemeine, a reputable German newspaper, was referred
to ProMED-mail independently by two reliable correspondents. ProMED-mail
was not able to verify the accuracy of the newspaper report prior to posting
and we regret propagating inaccurate information [but see [2] below].
The hysteria surrounding the outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 avian influenza in
East Asia, and the associated threat of an imminent pandemic of human influenza,
has generated a great deal of misinformation fueled by journalists competing
to establish a presence in the field, particularly with regard to events
in the People's Republic of China. We are grateful to Dr. Tashiro for
clarifying his position. - Mod.CP)
-
- [2]
Date: 24 Nov 2005
From: Arnon Shimshony
arnon@promedmail.org
-
- The Israeli daily "Haaretz" included the following
information in a front-page article earlier today [24 Nov 2005] (translation
from Hebrew):
-
- "One of the participants in the meeting, Prof Hans-Dieter
Klenk from Marburg University in Germany, confirmed -- in an interview
with "Haaretz" yesterday [23 Nov 2005] -- the quote from Dr Masato
Tashiro of the Japanese Ministry of Health. "Dr Masato presented a
well-detailed table, in Chinese, which included more than 300 human fatalities,
resulting from avian influenza, recorded in China during recent years",
said Prof Klenk yesterday. "He (namely Tashiro - A.S.) said that he
had received the unofficial report during his visit to China in recent
weeks", said Klenk". End translated passage.
-
- According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine, Dr Masato sharply
criticised the Chinese authorities, saying they are "deliberately
misleading the West"; this was denied by Prof Klenk. (As I understand
it, the denial means that the said criticism was not said by Masato - A.S.).
-
- Assaf Uni, the Haaretz reporter who interviewed Klenk,
is a reputable one.
_____
Arnon Shimshony
ProMED-mail Animal Disease and Zoonoses Moderator
Associate-Professor, Koret School of Veterinary Medicine
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
arnon@promedmail.org
-
- Now here is the original story -
-
-
- NewScientist.com News Service
By Debora MacKenzie
-
- A respected Japanese scientist, who works with the World
Health Organization, says 300 people have died of H5N1 bird flu in China,
including seven cases caused by human-to-human transmission.
-
- He says he was given the information in confidence by
Chinese colleagues who have been threatened with arrest if they disclosed
the extent of the problem.
-
- The allegations, which he revealed at a meeting in Germany,
contrast sharply with China's official position. It reports three confirmed
cases of H5N1 in people: a boy in Hunan province who recovered, and two
women who died in Anhui province, the latest of which was announced on
Thursday. There may be another probable case in Hunan.
-
- But Masato Tashiro, head of virology at Tokyo's National
Institute of Infectious Disease a WHO-collaborating centre for bird
flu told the meeting of virologists in Marburg, Germany, on 19 November
that "we have been systematically deceived". His comments were
reported in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
-
- He told the stunned meeting, called to mark the retirement
of a senior German virologist, that there have been "several dozen"
outbreaks in people, 300 confirmed deaths and 3000 people placed in isolation
with suspected cases.
-
- Severe Restrictions
-
- Tashiro could not be reached for comment today. The newspaper
reported that he said the numbers came from sources he trusted, while he
was in Hunan province for the WHO, working with Chinese investigators on
the recent H5N1 outbreak there.
-
- He said five Chinese medical personnel had been arrested
for trying to report these cases, according to the paper. China enforced
severe restrictions on the investigation and reporting of suspected cases
of bird flu in June 2005.
-
- "These rumours have been investigated, and we've
been told by the Chinese Ministry of Health that there's no foundation
to them," Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the World Health Organization,
told New Scientist.
-
- Emergency Workers
-
- Virologists consider the relative absence of human cases
of bird flu in China unusual, given its widespread infection in birds.
China has reported poultry outbreaks in twenty counties all across the
country since mid-October, the latest being on Thursday.
-
- The WHO told the official Chinese news agency Xinhua
last week that the virus causing the outbreak in Hunan is the same as the
one in Vietnam and Thailand, where H5N1 has caused 113 confirmed human
cases and 55 deaths so far.
-
- There are other unconfirmed reports of human cases in
China. Boxun News, an independent Chinese website, reported this week that
77 workers brought in to help control rampant H5N1 outbreaks in poultry
in Liaoning province in November have died of the virus, listing 14 names.
-
- Boxun reported the extent of the outbreak in wild birds
at Qinghai Lake in central China in May, and alleged then that 120 people
had been put in stringent hospital isolation in a nearby town, possibly
with bird flu.
-
- Bird Flu Learn more about the flu pandemic that
could kill millions in our continually updated special report.
-
-
- Patricia A. Doyle, PhD
- Please visit my "Emerging
Diseases" message board.
-
- Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
Go with God and in Good Health
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