- A leading geologist repeatedly warned Indonesian officials
that an earthquake and tsunami would soon strike their shores, it emerged
this weekend.
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- Kerry Sieh, professor of geology at California Institute
of Technology, has been studying the region for nearly a decade.
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- Last July he became so concerned at the likely massive
loss of life that he printed and distributed 5,000 posters and brochures
around some of the islands later hit by the earthquake.
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- He addressed church congregations and schools to tell
people what to do in an earthquake. His main advice was for people to live
away from shorelines.
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- Sieh had been due to meet Indonesian officials last month
to discuss a wider education programme but the meeting was cancelled at
the last minute because the officials said they had no money.
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- Two weeks ago he expressed his fear that a big earthquake
and tsunami were overdue in the region at a conference in San Francisco.
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- Sieh said this weekend: "No one can predict exactly
when an earthquake will happen but it was clear that this area was at relatively
high risk and such an event would definitely happen one day.
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- "We told them it would kill people, wreck infrastructure
and destroy livelihoods. But our warnings were falling on deaf ears.
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- "My team and I decided to bypass the national and
local government and start warning people directly. I hope our efforts
saved some lives."
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- Ten years ago Sieh installed monitors on islands off
Sumatra. His research focused on the Mentawai Islands, a chain 100 miles
south of the epicentre of the Boxing Day quake. Communication has not been
re-established with the islands since the tsunami.
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- At his speech to the annual meeting of the American Geophysical
Union in San Francisco, he pointed out that, historically, such events
have occurred in clusters.
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- Sieh believes this means another quake could be on the
way: "There is some evidence that the stresses on the tectonic plates
south of the epicentre may now have increased and raised the chances of
another major earthquake."
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