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- The hole in the
Southern Hemisphere,s ozone layer will
start shrinking within a decade
and should close completely in the next
50 years, according to an
international panel.
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- Data unveiled at a conference in Argentina suggest that
the global effort to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)"
the main menace to the ozone layer " is succeeding, just three months
after Nasa revealed that the size of the ozone hole in the Southern
Hemisphere
had grown to 11 million square miles and had reached the tip
of South America
for the first time.
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- The recovery should result in a
reduction in levels of
ultra-violet radiation around the globe. It
causes skin cancer and harms
plant and marine life.
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- Data from the Cape
Grimm monitoring station in Tasmania
show that levels of CFCs in the
lower atmosphere are starting to decline
for the first time since
scientists from the British Antarctic Survey discovered
the ozone hole
in 1985. A new mathematical model, the most accurate yet
devised,
suggests that there will be a similar decline in the stratosphere
over
the next decade, leading to a recovery in levels of ozone.
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- The dramatic recovery
could, however, be slowed by as
much as 30 years by global warming or
by severe volcanic eruptions, according
to the meeting in Argentina of
the Stratospheric Processes and their Role
in Climate panel, which is a
project of the World Climate Programme. It
will also depend on
continued efforts of the global community to keep ozone
emissions low.
The hole could also grow slightly over the next five years
before
recovery begins.
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- Professor Alan O,Neill, the director of the Centre for
Global
Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, and chair of the panel,
said that the news was a "triumph for global co-operation. The
success
could be attributed to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, in which
most governments
pledged to reduce their use of CFCs, he said.
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- The United States has
cut its annual ozone output from
306,000 ozone depletion potential
tonnes (ODP tonnes) to 2,500. The 12
nations that were then members of
the European Union have reduced their
use from 301,000 to 4,300 ODP
tonnes, while Japan has cut its output from
118,000 ODP tonnes to
zero.
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- The
global effort represents a triumph for the British
scientists Brian
Gardiner, Jonathan Shanklin and Joseph Farman, who alerted
the world to
the hole in 1985. Their work convinced governments to act.
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- Professor O,Neill
said: "We have now gotthe science
of the ozone layer buttoned
down, and we can predict with reasonable certainty
that it is on the
road to recovery. What is happening is that levels of
CFCs has been
reduced by concerted action. What this shows is that by understanding
the science of global environmental problems, we can convince governments
to take action to turn things around.
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- He said that the latest news
was a timely warning to
governments after the recent collapse of talks
in The Hague aimed at agreeing
a global response to climate change. The
science of global warming was
not as well-understood as that of ozone,
Profesor O,Neill said.
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