- JERUSALEM -- When the "brother
leader and guide of the revolution" emerged from his burrow of international
isolation last month and declared in essence, "My name is Muammar
Gaddafi. I'm the president of Libya. I want to negotiate," Washington
struck another name from the list of wannabe members of the doomsday weapons
club.
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- But Gaddafi's announcement that Libya was ready to dismantle
its nuclear weapons caused few, if any ripples in Israel, possessor of
arguably the most secretive weapons of mass destruction program in the
world.
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- Washington was silent, too, despite increasingly compelling
reasons for raising the issue publicly. For the Bush Administration to
pressure Israel to declare its weapons of mass destruction and explain
the circumstances under which they might be used would, at least, remove
a glaring double standard in its often sanctimonious proclamations. And
it would reassure moderate Arab neighbours. But such pressure is unlikely.
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- The Federation of American Scientists and the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute say Israel has at least 200 nuclear
warheads. If true, that would make it the world's fifth-largest nuclear
power.
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- Its arsenal features other advanced weaponry. A 1993
report by the Office of Technology Assessment for the US Congress says
Israel has "undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities"
and is "generally reported as having an undeclared offensive biological
warfare program".
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- Israel is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation
treaty, and thus is not subject to inspections and the threat of sanctions
by the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency.
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- During the 1960s, it deceived US scientists inspecting
its Dimona nuclear plant, constructing a fake control room and bricking
over doors leading to an underground uranium processing facility, Seymour
Hersh reports in The Samson Option, his account of the Israeli nuclear
weapons program.
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- Israel's policy of neither confirming nor denying the
existence of its nuclear, biological and chemical arsenal has served it
well - or, as the former prime minister Shimon Peres has put it, "The
suspicion and fog surrounding this issue are constructive."
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- The perception that it is a member of the nuclear club
has given Israel a high level of deterrence. And the official opaqueness
has let it avoid a direct collision with US policy and law on weapons proliferation.
Such a collision might jeopardise aid from Washington, which exceeds $US3
billion ($4 billion) a year. The official posture "has enabled Israel
for decades to enjoy the best of both worlds", says Shai Feldman,
director of the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv.
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- Never mind that nuclear weapons are useless against jihadis.
Never mind also that Gaddafi's about-face and Saddam Hussein's fall mean
the almost total destruction of the Arab world's radical camp. Add the
decision by Iran's mullahs to allow nuclear inspections and the strategic
picture of the Middle East has been transformed.
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- But to Israeli officials, Feldman says, Libya's and Iran's
turnabouts reveal the weakness of international inspections and safeguards.
Although both Tehran and Tripoli are signatories of the non-proliferation
treaty, both made significant advances towards development of weapons of
mass destruction that went undetected for years.
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- Under these circumstances, the question of whether the
continued existence of Israel's arsenal encourages what it says it wants
- a Middle East free of doomsday weapons - may be moot. But while expecting
Israel to relinquish its germs, gases and nukes may be far-fetched, it
is arguably not premature for Israel to talk about them publicly and acknowledge
what the world knows.
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- A sign of how far Israel stands from doing that came
this week, when its domestic intelligence agency was reported to be considering
how to silence a nuclear whistleblower who is due to be released from prison
in April.
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- Mordechai Vanunu, a former nuclear technician, was sentenced
to 18 years in jail for espionage after giving pictures and a description
of alleged weapons from Dimona to London's Sunday Times in 1986.
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- Local media reports this week said the options being
considered for muzzling Vanunu included barring him from travelling overseas
or speaking in public after his release. Israeli officials later confirmed
the reports.
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- Copyright © 2004 The Sydney Morning Herald.
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- http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/02/1072908911555.html
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