- The White House has retreated from its doctrine of regime
change and pre-emptive military action and is returning to traditional
diplomacy in an effort to repackage George Bush as a president for peace.
-
- Signs of the new strategy that have emerged in the past
few weeks include:
-
- * North Korea, where authorities yesterday agreed to
allow US inspectors to visit its nuclear complex next week.
-
- * Iran, where the US proposed, through UN channels, sending
a high-level humanitarian mission after last week's earthquake - although
Tehran last night asked for any visit to be delayed.
-
- * Libya, where the US welcomed Muammar Gadafy's surprise
decision to give up weapons of mass destruction.
-
- * Iraq, where the Bush administration is pressing for
greater involvement from the international community.
-
- * Palestine, where US peace envoy John Wolf may be sent
to try to restart talks.
-
- The signs of a thaw in US relations with these and other
countries point to a different approach emerging in Washington. It emphasises
cooperation, dialogue and diplomacy in place of the policies that have
characterised the Bush administration's thinking to date. While Mr Bush
publicly asserts Washington's right to defend its interests by any means,
in practice he is increasingly pursuing a collaborative approach.
-
- "There is a definite shift in US policy in everything
but words," said Joseph Cirincione, an arms control expert. "The
official doctrine has not changed but all our actions have, and the result
is a shift away from military action towards diplomatic engagement. First
with Iran, then with Libya and now with North Korea, we see a much greater
effort to affect changes in regime behaviour rather than changes of regime."
-
- Analysts in Washington say the Bush administration has
little choice if it is to fulfil a highly ambitious election year agenda
that seeks to disarm "rogue states" such as North Korea while
advancing towards a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, encouraging
conflict resolution in Sudan, and achieving credible transformations in
Afghanistan and Iraq.
-
- All these objectives are complicated and to some degree
hindered by the "war on terror" against a resurgent al-Qaida,
and by America's failure to capture or kill Osama bin Laden.
-
- Despite notable successes in overthrowing and capturing
Saddam Hussein and toppling the Taliban in Afghanistan, White House hopes
of bringing democratic governance in Iraq and Afghanistan hang in the balance
amid continuing violence and discord.
-
- Iraq is crucial to the administration's policy shift
- either because, as conservatives argue, leaders of other rogue regimes
learnt a lesson from Saddam's fate, or, as others say, because the conflict
has so extended the military, Washington cannot contemplate the opening
of a new front.
-
- "It's just the force of reality, the consequences
of Iraq which has made them change," said Anatol Lieven, a fellow
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Even by their
standards it is not rational to think that America can run another war."
-
- With elections 11 months away, Mr Bush does not want
to be vulnerable to claims that he has presided over a warmongering strategy
that has left Americans little safer than September 11 2001. His shift
follows an established pattern in Washington of politicians moving to the
centre during an election year.
-
- But Mr Bush has an additional consideration with Iraq.
He is keenly aware that the electorate's judgment of his performance depends
heavily on events there. Despite a rally in his popularity after Saddam's
capture two weeks ago, opinion polls suggest overall attitudes towards
the war have not fundamentally changed. Public concern at American casualties
in Iraq has continued to rise and, ominously for Mr Bush, the violence
in Iraq has not lessened.
-
- White House policy is also being influenced by Washington's
allies, notably Britain. After the chasms over Iraq, the US and the Europeans
seem to have reached an understanding about the right mix of diplomacy
and force - particularly during negotiations with Iran and Libya.
-
- Britain's influence is particularly strong. British government
sources were reluctant to talk about the US change of tack last night for
fear of giving any impression of gloating. But any signs that Mr Bush is
moving back to a multilateral foreign policy will be welcomed in London
- if only in private - as a vindication of Tony Blair's strategy of dealing
with the president. Friends describe this as "complete solidarity
in public, and complete candour in private".
-
- Sources say Mr Blair's relationship with Mr Bush is so
strong that an informal weekly video conference has now become a regular
fixture in their diaries.
-
- The conferences are primarily designed to discuss Iraq,
though the two leaders have also discussed other issues such as Iran. Sensitive
issue, such as Libya, are discussed on more secure lines.
-
- Sir Nigel Sheinwald, the prime minister's chief foreign
policy adviser, talks on an almost daily basis with Condoleezza Rice, the
president's national security adviser. Sir David Manning, the British ambassador
in Washington, meets Dr Rice regularly.
-
- The change in direction is also a result of the constant
struggle for influence between pragmatists and hawks that has been a defining
feature of the Bush administration. The neo-conservatives appear to be
losing ground, with speculation about upcoming bureaucratic reshuffling.
-
- "The state department pinstripes have replaced the
department of defence bluster," Mr Cirincione said.
-
- The move to negotiated, diplomatic solutions is unlikely
to be welcomed by the vice president, Dick Cheney, the most influential
of Washington's hawks, who have often dominated policy making.
-
- But in an interview published this week, the secretary
of state, Colin Powell, seemed to suggest the policy battle was finally
going his way. Mr Powell acknowledged that the administration's top priority
in the coming months would be cooperative peace making, rather than war
making.
-
- "I'm going to work very hard in making clear to
our friends in Europe and elsewhere in the world that America is a partner
- spend more time with them, spend more time listening to them and finding
ways what we can cooperate together," Mr Powell told the Washington
Post.
-
- On Iraq, Mr Powell indicated that a switch in US policy
was required. He said the UN and Nato had essential roles to play and the
US needed to persuade other countries to forgive or reschedule Iraq's $120bn
(£67bn) foreign debts.
-
- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited
2004
-
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1115330,00.html
-
-
-
- Comment
- From Jim Mortellaro
- 1-3-4
-
- Dylan wrote: "Sometimes Satan, come as a man of
peace ... "
-
-
-
- Comment
From Alton Raines
1-3-4
-
- Good One, Jim! I'll go ya' one further.
-
- The Apostle Paul warns us that... "Do not marvel,
for Satan comes as an angel of light, and HIS MINISTERS AS MINISTERS OF
THE WAY OF RIGHTEOUSNESS." Whew! Translation: Watch your backsides,
boys! We're in for a bumpy ride!! Ole' split-toe has been playin' the 'good
guy' in the white hat from day one. Mark him well. Before he marks you!
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