- After eight months of fruitless search, George Bush has
in effect washed his hands of the hunt for Iraq's weapons of mass destruction,
in whose name the United States and Britain went to war last March.
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- David Kay, the CIA adviser who headed the US-led search
for WMD, is to quit, before submitting his assessment to the US President
in February.
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- The departure of Mr Kay, a strong believer in the case
for toppling Saddam Hussein because of his alleged weapons, comes as a
particular embarrassment to Tony Blair. This week he maintained that Mr
Kay had uncovered "massive evidence" of a network of WMD laboratories.
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- For Mr Bush, the missing weapons are a politically charged
issue. Pressed to explain why his administration had asserted Saddam possessed
weapons, when at best fragmentary evidence of programmes had been found,
Mr Bush replied: "So what's the difference? If he were to acquire
weapons, he would be the danger," he said in an interview with ABC
News' Diane Sawyer.
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- Mr Bush's public dismissal of the weapons issue is the
latest move by Washington and London to changethe justification for war.
Weapons of mass destruction, and even weapons programmes, are no longer
being put forward as the reason for the invasion.
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- Senior US and British officials now dwell almost exclusively
on the atrocities perpetrated by Saddam against his people, and the opportunity
provided by his removal for a regeneration of the Middle East.
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- Opinion polls point to the strategy working. The US public
has forgotten what it was being told every day only nine months ago about
the "imminent threat" the former Iraqi leader posed to the US,
while the capture of Saddam last Saturday had boosted the President's approval
ratings to a healthy 60 per cent-plus.
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- Mr Kay's departure as head of the Iraq Survey Group (ISG)
is said to be for family and personal reasons. He is not in Iraq at present
but on holiday in Washington.
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- Mr Kay himself sounds increasingly doubtful that chemical
or biological weapons will be found, and is said to be resentful that the
US military was less than helpful to his experts, preferring to prioritise
the counter-insurgency.
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- Publicly, Mr Kay insists, and points to his first interim
report this autumn as proof, that the ISG has already unearthed evidence
of ongoing weapons programmes. But he acknowledged on the BBC's Panorama
programme three weeks ago he was prepared to be proved wrong that no weapons
existed.
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- Downing Street played down reports of Mr Kay's departure
as "rumour, not fact", and denied that Mr Blair had given up
hope that evidence of WMD would be found. Privately, British ministers
cling to the hope of finding evidence of weapons programmes rather than
the actual chemical or biological weapons systems. They hope Saddam's capture
will end the "climate of fear" among Iraqi scientists and enable
them to be honest about his regime.
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- This week Mr Blair was accused by the Tories and Lib
Dems of "spinning" the ISG's interim report after he said they
had "found massive evidence of a huge system of clandestine laboratories,
workings by scientists, plans to develop long range ballistic missiles".
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- The ISG, set up in June, has a nominal staff of 1,400
specialists, analysts and translators, all theoretically dedicated to the
search for WMD. But the numbers in the field have been less: two teams
of 20 at most. In October, the group's strength dwindled further when Donald
Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, ordered many personnel to be transferred
to the regular forces to help counter the growing rebellion.
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- Despite the capture and interrogation of many senior
Iraqi officials, there has been no breakthrough. Saddam is said to have
told investigators what Iraq told the UN before the invasion: that it no
longer had banned weapons.
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- But the seizure of Saddam has given some American officials
new hope that banned materials will be found.
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- Peter Kilfoyle, a former Defence minister, said Saddam's
capture had not relieved the pressure on Mr Blair for weapons to be tracked
down.
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- The former deputy chief UN weapons inspector Charles
Duelfer said: "What is important is Saddam's intentions. The case
can be made that he may not have had existing weapons, but his intention
was to outlast the inspectors and reconstruct his weapons capabilities."
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- © 2003 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd
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- http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=474598
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