- Iraqi intellectuals living both inside Iraq and as members
of the expatriate community in Europe and North America are warning that
Iraq is perilously close to a civil war in light of recent events and decrees
issued by both the US Civilian Provisional Authority (CPA) and the Iraqi
Governing Council (IGC).
-
- In chronological order,
-
- 1. Leading members of the Shiite majority in Iraq believe
that they are about to be shortchanged once again in July 2004, when the
CPA hands over control to a provisional Iraqi government which it claims
will be more representative of the Iraqi people. Shiite clerics led by
Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani have called for direct elections starting from
a grassroots level to ensure that the provisional government avoid suspicion
of acting as a US proxy and franchise the support and active participation
of the Iraqi people. Al-Sistani has charged the CPA with failing to enjoin
the democratic needs of the Iraqi people. Other Shiite clerics have also
charged that they fear that a new Iraqi constitution will be far more secular
than the Baathist legal framework and not cater to the Islamic flavor of
the country. Al-Sistani's position received strong endorsement from the
current rotating IGC president Shiite cleric Abdel Aziz Hakim who used
his inaugural speech to state that "A provisional national assembly
should be elected by the Iraqi people, and this assembly should choose
the government."
-
- Several IGC members have defended the CPA plan citing
the lack of a census upon which all elections must be based. A census determines
the demographics of the population, does a count of eligible voters, carries
out voter registration, and enhances the democratic process which the country
requires. With no census, says the IGC, there can be no elections. However,
in early November, the Iraqi Census Bureau submitted a plan to conduct
a full national census in Iraq by Fall 2004. According to a recent Al Jazeera
article, quoting Agence-France Press and the New York Times, Iraqi officials
submitted their plan on November 1 and were asking for a decision by November
15. IGC officials admitted never seeing the plan which eventually fell
to the wayside. Iraqis are beginning to suspect that there are elements
both within the IGC and the CPA that are working to undermine Iraqi democracy.
-
- 2. The New York Times reported on November 25th that
the IGC is trying to wedge its way out of its commitment to relinquishing
control to an elected body: "But Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader
who is serving as president of the council this month, said in an interview
Monday that a majority of the council members 'want to keep the Governing
Council as it is now.' Some council members who oppose this idea say they
believe that the proposal is being promoted by members who are afraid that
they may not fare well in the coming elections. Opponents of the idea also
say they fear that staying on will be a public relations disaster for the
nascent rebuilt Iraqi state." Iraqis are astounded that the CPA may
indeed give in to urges from certain IGC members and keep them on in some
kind of future arrangement. The fact that unelected elements may remain
in power is incensing Iraqis who claim there is no difference between Saddam's
former henchmen and the IGC members who are considered self-serving and
out for a power grab. The news that IGC members are bargaining to stay
in power has, ironically, become an effective recruiting tool for the Iraqi
resistance. Many Iraqis privately say they are waiting till July 2004 before
deciding whether to work with the CPA or support an increasing Iraqi rebellion
in key parts of the country. However, there may be ominous signs that members
of the IGC may turn to violent means to enforce their political aspirations.
Certain members of the IGC are protected by their local security guards
and a heavy US security detail. Some of the council members have their
own private little armies. Galal Talabani and Masoud Barazani, both rival
Kurdish leaders, maintain highly-equipped armies of peshmerga who at one
point fought Saddam's armies, and at several junctions, one another. Ahmad
Chalabi, who is wanted on charges of fraud and embezzlement in neighboring
Jordan (he was sentenced to 20 years in absentia), has his own army of
Iraqi opposition who were trained by the CIA and wear American-made uniforms
and wield American-made weaponry.
-
- 3. In efforts to minimize the toll on US forces in Iraq
(448 fatalities, 11,000 wounded or incapacitated) there has been a maddening
rush to create an Iraqi militia force that would overtake many of the duties
performed by Coalition forces - patrol, searching for insurgents, protecting
key installations, etc. However, while the average rotation time for training
new Iraqi police and/or militia is six months, many of the Iraqi forces
on active duty have only seen three weeks of training, a discrepancy that
is worrying some Iraq experts. Ali Jawad, a former Iraqi police recruit
who left for Amman, Jordan when his comrades were killed in recent Baghdad
attacks, claims that Iraqi police are poorly equipped, poorly trained,
have communication barriers with coalition forces, and are constantly looking
over their shoulders not only from Iraqi insurgents, but US forces which
may be trigger-happy or uninformed of Iraqi patrol presence. He says that
Iraqi police are stressed and many have domestic problems because of their
torn loyalties. Jawad believes it wouldn't take much for the Iraqi police
to join the insurgency if conditions in Iraq further deteriorated.
-
- US forces are aware that they are in a dilemma and have
consequently drawn a plan they hope will alleviate the problem of putting
Iraqi forces in charge of security. According to Bahrain's Gulf Daily News,
the CPA is using its influence with Kurdish factions to start using well-armed
Kurdish peshmerga fighters, who formerly fought against the Iraqi Army,
to patrol hotspots like the Sunni Triangle and Arab-dominated Mosul. Sunni
religious leaders have expressed outrage over the proposed deal and have
warned, in no ambiguous terms, that the Sunni areas will not tolerate being
patrolled or policed by Kurdish (or Shiite) militia. They warn that a civil
war would be inevitable.
-
- 4. Oil. Reports have emerged from Iraq indicating that
Israeli technocrats and oil industry personnel have been seen mulling about
in the Kurdish-held areas of Iraq. Independent Iraqi observers point to
discussions between Israeli businessmen and government officials with the
CPA and certain members of the Iraqi opposition that would later form the
IGC. An article in The Guardian (April 20) said "Plans to build a
pipeline to siphon oil from newly conquered Iraq to Israel are being discussed
between Washington, Tel Aviv and potential future government figures in
Baghdad. The plan envisages the reconstruction of an old pipeline, inactive
since the end of the British mandate in Palestine in 1948, when the flow
from Iraq's northern oilfields to Palestine was re-directed to Syria."
In late August, Israel's daily Haaretz reported that "The new pipeline
would take oil from the Kirkuk area, where some 40 percent of Iraqi oil
is produced, and transport it via Mosul, and then across Jordan to Israel.
The U.S. telegram included a request for a cost estimate for repairing
the Mosul-Haifa pipeline that was in use prior to 1948." Iraqis are
now concerned that a likely Iraqi civil war would be a shadow war to cover
up the fact that Iraqi oil is being siphoned to Israel. "Now we see
that it wasn't about oil, this war, but about oil for Israel," said
Shahim Al-Obeidi, an Iraqi chemist in Quebec City, Canada. "The Kurds
might sell their pride to Israel, but the Arabs will not tolerate this.
And they ask why people are joining the resistance," he said defiantly.
-
- Almost all Iraqis interviewed for this article expressed
a mixture of dismay, disgust and anger at the US mishandling of Iraqi affairs.
They claim that they are glad that the Baathist regime has been dislodged
but wonder why Iraqi civil society is marginalized in the reconstruction
and re-politicization of Iraq. Talk of civil war is now common among Iraqis
sipping tea in Baghdad teahouses or those who are professors in Europe
and North America.
-
- "I have Very bad vibes indeed. Things look ominous,
as if a civil war is imminent," said Fadi Wazan, an Iraqi businessman
in Boston, Massachusetts.
-
- Firas Al-Atraqchi is a Canadian journalist of Iraqi heritage.
Holding an MA in Journalism and Mass Communication, he has eleven years
of experience covering Middle East issues, oil and gas markets, and the
telecom industry. You can reach him at firascape@hotmail.com.
-
- Copyright © 1999-2003 Islam Online All rights reserved
-
- http://www.islamonline.net/English/In_Depth/Iraq_Aftermath/2003/12/artic
le_04.shtml
|
