- Unpublished Census Bureau Data Show Little Evidence of
Slowdown
-
- WASHINGTON -- The economic
downturn and the September 11 attacks appear to have had no lasting impact
on the pace of immigration nationally and in most states, according to
Center for Immigration Studies analysis of unpublished Census Bureau data
collected earlier this year.
-
- While there is some evidence that immigration may have
slowed slightly in 2001, new legal and illegal immigration remain at record-setting
levels. For the most part, immigration appears to be largely unconnected
to national or state job markets. Although unemployment has increased significantly
overall and among the foreign-born, the pace of legal and illegal immigration
continues to match that of the late 1990s. The report, entitled "Immigration
in a Time of Recession: An Examination of Trends Since 2000," contains
information for the nation and for many states, and is available at www.cis.org/articles/2003/back1603.html
.
-
- Among the report's findings:
-
- * Since 2000, 2.3 million new adult immigrant workers
(legal and illegal) have arrived in the United States, almost exactly the
same as the 2.2 million who arrived during the three years prior to 2000,
despite a dramatic change in economic conditions.
-
- * At the state level, there seems to be no clear relationship
between economic conditions and trends in immigration. Immigration levels
have matched or exceeded the pace of the late 1990s in Texas, New Jersey,
Virginia, Maryland, Illinois, Arizona, Washington, North Carolina, Georgia,
and New York -- even as all these states experienced a significant increase
in unemployment.
-
- * Nationally, about half (1.2 million) of those who arrived
in each three-year time period (1997-2000 and 2000-2003) are estimated
to be illegal aliens. These figures are only for those in the workforce
who were captured in Census Bureau data.
-
- * Looking only at the net increase in employment, the
number of foreign-born adults (legal and illegal) holding a job has grown
1.7 million since 2000, while among natives the number working actually
fell by 800,000.
-
- "Immigration is a complex process driven by a variety
of factors, many of which have little to do with prevailing economic conditions
in the United States," said Steven A. Camarota, the Center's Director
of Research and the report's author. "This does not mean that economic
factors are irrelevant. However, the continued high rates of immigration,
nationally and to specific states hard hit by the recession, show that
immigration is driven mostly by the higher standard of living in the United
States compared to immigrant-sending countries, not by demand for labor
in this country."
-
- Other findings in the report:
-
- * Although the number of foreign-born adults holding
a job increased since 2000, the number unemployed also increased, by 600,000,
and the unemployment rate among the foreign-born rose from 4.9 to 7.4 percent.
-
- * It is the very rapid growth in the foreign-born population
that makes it possible for the number of immigrants holding jobs and the
number unemployed to increase at the same time.
-
- * The total foreign-born population (not just those in
the workforce) has grown by 3.5 million since 2000.
-
- * As a share of the total population, the foreign-born
now account for almost one in eight residents of the United States, the
highest percentage in more than eight decades.
-
- DISCUSSION. The current economic slowdown represents
a real-world test of the widespread contention that immigration is primarily
driven by the labor needs of the United States. The fact that immigration
has not slowed significantly since 2000, even though unemployment has increased
significantly, indicates that immigration levels do not simply reflect
demand for labor in this country. Rather, immigration is a complex process
driven by a variety of factors, many of which have little to do with the
job market in the United States. It is America's higher standard of living
that drives most immigration, and the disparity in living standards does
not disappear during downturns in the business cycle.
-
- Given what they face in their home countries, prospective
immigrants often feel that even being unemployed or having to rely on assistance
from the government or family members in this country is still better than
life back home. Therefore, immigration is not a self-regulating process
that rises and falls with the economy. In contrast, during the previous
Great Wave of immigration at the turn of the last century, immigration
levels were very sensitive to economic conditions in the United States.
This is primarily because the disparity in living standards between the
United States and immigrant-sending countries today is much larger than
it was in the past. Since it is a government program, immigration could,
of course, be reduced by changing the selection criteria for legal immigrants
and increasing efforts to enforce the law. So far, however, neither Congress
nor the president has chosen to do this.
-
- Contact: Steven Camarota, (202) 466-8185
-
- The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent
non-profit research organization
- which examines the impact of immigration on the United
States.
-
- Mark Krikorian, executive director
- Center for Immigration Studies
- 1522 K Street N.W., Suite 820
- Washington, DC 20005
- (202) 466-8185 fax: (202) 466-8076
- msk@cis.org http://www.cis.org
|
