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Superpower Intrigue On
Remote South Pacific Atoll
By Geoffrey York
Globe and Mail
11-13-3


BEIJING -- On a remote atoll in the South Pacific, a mysterious Chinese satellite base is provoking a surge of superpower rivalry and diplomatic intrigue that could shape the future of the U.S. missile defence shield and China's space program.
 
The obscure and impoverished Pacific country of Kiribati, with a population of just 96,000 people scattered across 33 coral atolls, is so tiny that its latest election was a presidential race between two brothers. But its strategic location -- near a top-secret U.S. missile-testing base -- has made it a target for high-level geopolitical jostling and allegations of espionage that grew even more intense this month when China suffered an unexpected setback there.
 
Kiribati abruptly switched its diplomatic loyalties from China to Taiwan last week, one of only 26 countries that still recognize the breakaway province.
 
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Eugene Chien boasted that Kiribati's decision was a "brilliant" diplomatic coup for Taipei, but a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called it "an open betrayal" and warned of "serious consequences" for the sprawling chain of equatorial islands, home to an important Chinese communications base.
 
Chinese state media alleged that Taiwan, a close military partner of the United States, contributed more than $1-million (U.S.) to the President and governing party of Kiribati, enabling them to win July's election.
 
China normally severs all relations with a country that gives diplomatic recognition to Taiwan. But if it took this action against Kiribati, it would have to shut down its embassy and put at risk its satellite station, which is critical to its growing space program but has long worried the United States.
 
"If it shuts down the embassy . . . it risks losing the satellite monitoring facility that is apparently crucial to its nationalism-priming space program and to monitoring some U.S. missile-defence tests," said Daniel Lynch, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California.
 
"Beijing is hopping mad, but what can it do? Any heavy-handedness out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean would be extremely hard to justify."
 
The satellite base, built by the Chinese military in 1997, is officially for tracking China's orbiting spaceships. As one of three foreign tracking bases, it is crucial to the fast-growing Chinese space program, which sent its first man into space last month.
 
But many observers are convinced it is more than just a civilian space facility. When a reporter managed to slip inside the guarded compound, he found its satellite dishes pointing northward -- toward one of the most secret military bases on Earth, the Ronald Reagan Missile Test Site, a U.S. ballistic missile base on the atoll of Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands.
 
Kwajalein is the bulls-eye for test missiles launched from California and is a crucial test site for the Pentagon's missile-defence system, the controversial program under development to protect the United States from ballistic missile attack by "rogue" nations.
 
Last year, two U.S. Navy F-16 fighter jets buzzed the Chinese satellite base in Kiribati, delivering a loud signal of suspicion about the true purpose of the mysterious facility with its big satellite dishes and rocket tracking equipment.
 
Before Taiwan's diplomatic coup, Beijing had spent lavishly on projects in Kiribati, as well as other Pacific island states. Its embassy, looming over the capital, Tarawa, is the biggest building in the town.
 
The satellite facility became a key issue in Kiribati's election when opposition leader Anote Tong's camp questioned the secrecy surrounding the base. His party suggested that the base was a spy station, and demanded the details of the Chinese lease. (Mr. Tong went on to defeat his older brother Harry and a third candidate in the election.)
 
The decision of Mr. Tong's government to show favour to Taiwan could be a blow to China's long-term political ambitions. The victory for Taipei could make it easier for Taiwan's pro-independence President, Chen Shui-bian, to win his bid for re-election next March, something that Beijing desperately hopes to avoid.
 
"This is an important boost for President Chen's re-election campaign," said Chien-min Chao, a political scientist in Taipei. "It proves that Taiwan is capable of fighting back. It was very important for the President to win one country back."
 

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