- NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in a report
to be published in November's edition of the American Meteorological Society's
Journal of Climate, reports that "The summer ice cover in the Arctic
has been declining at a rate of nine per cent a decade and is very close
to the record low set last year." It warns that "If the high
latitudes continue to warm, and ice cover continues to decline, the whole
planet will be affected."
-
- At the same time, Dr Seymour Laxon, from the Centre for
Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London reported in
the 30th. October edition of Nature magazine that "Global warming
and climate change has caused a 40% thinning of the Arctic ice fields since
the 1960's. Continued decrease in the Arctic's ice cover," says Dr.
Laxon, "would also act to increase the effects of global warming in
the northern hemisphere by decreasing the amount of sunlight reflected
by the ice."
-
- Here in the British Isles, far from being disturbed by
the effects of global warming, most have welcomed this predicted climate
change as having a beneficial effect on the UK weather, giving us warmer
winters and hotter summers, much like the Mediterranean climate.
-
- However, startling new evidence suggests that global
warming could have a very different affect on the UK's climate. As Dr.
Laxon says, "Arctic ice plays a role in the operation of the Gulf
Stream, and this could be disrupted by continued thinning of the ice. It
could shut down the Gulf Stream, and if that happens, the United Kingdom
would be plunged into an Arctic winter within a few years."
-
- Currently Britain enjoys remarkably mild weather for
a land mass so far north. Other areas parallel to Britain, such as parts
of Siberia, Alaska and Canada, are inhospitable, sparsely populated and
devoid of agriculture. In Churchill, Manitoba, on the same latitude as
Inverness, the winter is long, the snow is deep, the sea freezes far and
wide as the thermometer falls to minus 50C. There are only two months a
year without snow. When the polar bears emerge from hibernation, they gnaw
the dustbins in Churchill in search of scraps.
-
- The factor that keeps Britain's climate temperate is
the Gulf Stream, an ocean current that brings five trillion tons of warm
water from the tropics to Europe every day. This warms the air, and keeps
our winters mild.
-
- However, this may not last. For over 30 years, climate
researchers working for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) have been analysing samples from Greenland,s polar ice caps.
These tell a story of wildly fluctuating weather, with sudden and drastic
changes in climate. The last 11,000 years have seen a remarkably stable
period, which has enabled the growth of settlements, agriculture, and civilisation
itself. But alarming new reports suggest that this period might be coming
to an end.
-
- The thick polar ice of the north Atlantic forces the
warm, saline currents of the Gulf Stream deep underwater, creating an effect
scientists call a "conveyor belt". As the polar water sinks,
the warmer water is drawn in from the south to take its place, creating
a current flowing across the Atlantic from south to north.
-
- If the ice caps " which are composed of fresh water
" start melting in sufficient quantities it could dilute the Gulf
Stream, making it less saline, less dense and preventing it from sinking.
It will simply stay on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and freeze. If there
is no water sinking, there will be nothing to draw the warm replacement
water in from the south, causing the "conveyor belt" effect to
stop.
-
- According to James Hansen, of NASA's Goddard Institute
for Space Studies, "It would take no more than a quarter of 1 per
cent more fresh water flowing into the North Atlantic from melting glaciers
to bring the northwards flow of the Gulf Stream to a halt."
-
- This cataclysmic event would force temperatures in Great
Britain down by as much as 15 degrees Celsius, equivalent to almost 60
degrees Fahrenheit, in a very short period of time, and according to some
IPCC researchers, such a catastrophe could be imminent.
-
- The effects of this catastrophe are hard to comprehend.
The farming industry of the British Isles will be completely destroyed,
as the drop in temperature halts agricultural growth completely, making
animal husbandry and food production virtually impossible. Britain's infrastructure,
designed over centuries for a temperate climate, will collapse, forcing
manufacturers, businesses and services into terminal decline, with the
consequent massive rise in unemployment sending consumer spending on anything
but winter clothing and food spiralling downwards. The British economy,
financial institutions, major businesses and services and the British people
will be in deep trouble.
-
- It would appear that far from creating an idyllic Mediterranean
climate, global warming could send the British Isles back into the Ice
Age.
-
- ©Copyright: Ian Gurney November 2003.
- First published in The Daily Express 11-8-3
- Ian Gurney is a journalist, broadcaster and author of
the bestseller "The Cassandra Prophecy" (www.caspro.com) published
by International Global Press. ISBN 0953581314. He can be contacted at
:info@caspro.com
-
- Research Links
-
- www.nerc.ac.uk/publications/latestpressrelease/index.asp
- Natural Environmental Research Council.
- www.giss.nasa.gov Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
- www.nature.com Nature Magazine.
- www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- www.met-office.gov.uk Hadley Meteorological Centre.
- www.royalsoc.ac.uk The Royal Society.
- www.gcrio.org/
- Climate change on the Internet:
- http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/
- www.royalsoc.ac.uk/templates/search/websearch.cfm?mainpage=
/events/discussion_meetings/reps/acc.htm
- http://themes.eea.eu.int/theme.php/issues/climate www.igc.apc.org/climate/Eco.html
www.greenpeace.org/~climate/industry/reports/sceptics.html
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