- One element of the diplomatic crisis that erupted between
Washington and Beijing this spring, after a US surveillance aircraft narrowly
survived a close encounter with a Chinese warplane, went almost unnoticed
in the drama surrounding the fate of the American crew.
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- Photographs released by the Pentagon of two Chinese jets
that had shadowed the EP-3E Aries II on April 1 showed they were armed
with Israeli-made Python air- to-air missiles. It was the first public
proof of what had for years been an open secret in the defence community
- that Israel is a supplier of sophisticated modern weaponry to the Chinese
military.
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- This unlikely relationship has been a persistent cause
of friction in the otherwise close US-Israeli relationship over the years.
China's relationship with Israel has existed for 20 years and long predates
the opening of diplomatic relations between the two countries and Israel's
readiness to supply the Chinese with sophisticated weaponry - some of it
developed in co-operation with the US - is something that increasingly
concerns Washington...
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- On one level the relationship is financial. In the early
days, China paid for the supplies with raw silk which the Israelis used
for products sold into the international market. For Israel, however, there
may be a wider strategic interest: as China moves towards superpower status
in years to come, it will be as well for the Jewish state to have maintained
intimate ties with Beijing in the hope of influencing its policy towards
the Middle East.
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- When the then Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
visited Peking in 1998, he noted that: "We are very fortunate that
China and Israel - the Chinese people and the Jewish people that are two
of the oldest people on earth - have developed the capacity to develop
dynamic societies that can seize the future. And we believe that the co-operation
between us can bring prosperity and peace to our peoples and to our neighbours
as well."
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- What worries US strategic planners is that, as a consequence
of these apparently warm ties, high-technology weaponry that leaks from
Israel to China could, in turn, find its way to what the US regards as
rogue states in the Middle East.
-
- Israel itself appears aware of the risk and is understood
to set strict conditions on how China uses the technology it acquires.
At the end of 1999, Israel publicly raised for the first time its concerns
that China was transferring missile technology to Iran. This came after
US officials expressed concerns that Israeli advanced technology supplied
to the Chinese might end up in Iranian hands. Already in 1997, the New
York Daily News carried a report suggesting that US pilots patrolling the
skies over the Iraqi no-fly zones faced the risk of being shot down by
Chinese PL-8 missiles, developed in Israel.
-
- Such reports help explain the motivation behind the setting
up of a House of Representatives sub-committee to investigate the relationship
under the chairmanship of the Republican, Christopher Cox, which made its
findings partially public in May 1999. The Cox report noted that recent
years had been marked by increased Sino-Israeli co-operation on military
and security matters. It also noted that Israel had given China "significant
technology co-operation" in aircraft and missile development, most
notably in developing the F-!0 fighter and airborne early warning aircraft.
The F-10 is closely modelled on Israel's Lavi fighter, a project dropped
in 1987 after it had been funded by the US to the tune of some $1.5bn.
-
- Later, shortly after the second Gulf war, the administration
of George Bush Sr, acknowledged it was investigating Israel's secret transfer
of Patriot missile technology to China. Patriot batteries had been set
up in Israel amid great fanfare during the war as a first line defence
against Saddam's scud missiles in a move also designed to keep Israel out
of the conflict.
-
- Israel's most recent planned sale of high-tech weaponry
to Beijing was the cause of a rare public spat with the US during the premiership
of Ehud Barak, Mr Sharon's predecessor.
-
- The dispute last year involved Israel's contract to supply
Beijing with the Phalcon airborne early warning radar system developed
by Elta, a subsidiary of Israel Aircraft Industries. The deal was frozen
after a congressional committee protested, amid threats to cut military
aid to Israel, that the sale would give China a military edge over Taiwan.
-
- Israeli military analysts say that, while Mr Sharon is
eager not to revive the dispute, some officials and defence industry executives
are smarting over what they regard as US interference in Israel's affairs
and still hope the sale will go ahead.
-
- "The project was frozen but not killed," said
Gerald Steinberg, a Middle East arms expert at Israel's Bar-Ilan University.
"Some people in the military industries lobby think they can still
salvage it."
-
- He said there had already been relatively low-level discussions
with Washington since the Phalcon affair over how to handle such deals.
"The US would like to be able to give prior approval and Israel wants
to limit that. At the same time Israel wants to avoid another (dispute).
Barak handled it very badly and Sharon has learned the lesson."
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- Other recent concerns have centerd on the transfer of
laser weapons technology. In early 1999, the Washington Times said the
Defense Intelligence Agency suspected Israel had shared with the Chinese
restricted technology obtained during a joint US-Israeli effort - the Tactical
High-Energy Laser (Thel) programme - to build a battlefield laser gun.
The evidence was said to have come from US contractors in Israel who had
seen Chinese technicians working with one of the Israeli companies involved
in the laser project.
-
- Nevertheless, 18 months later, the joint project was
still going strong, with US officials announcing in July 2000 that a test-fired
Thel had tracked and brought down a rocket. The US army described the test
as "a major technical step toward a system to protect northern Israel
from rockets fired by guerrilla groups."
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- Although it benefits from billions of dollars of US aid
to give it the military edge in the Middle East, Israel has proved quite
prickly when challenged by the US about passing on the related technology,
accusing Washington of interfering in legitimate sales. At the some time
it has tried to keep the trade as secret as possible.
-
- No evidence has been put forward to suggest the targets
of the February 16 raids were installations based on US technology and
transferred to China via Israel. It is obvious, however, that the Israelis
are playing a dangerous game by opening a potential conduit for high-technology
weaponry to get into the hands of its declared enemies.
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- China might argue that it has as much right to militarise
the Middle East as has the US, the region's principal weapons supplier.
The policy, however, will do little to contribute to a de-escalation of
tension.
-
- On the missile technology front, transfers to the region
are governed by the missile technology control regime (MTCR) which the
US obliged Beijing to sign in 1992. There is concern, however, that if
Washington is too heavy handed in enforcing MTCR and other restrictions
on weapons sales, it could encourage the Chinese to circumvent the rules.
That could seriously upset the military balance in the Middle East, whose
exposure to Chinese-supplied weaponry is still relatively limited. So far
only Saudi Arabia has been supplied with Chinese intermediate-range nuclear
missiles and that was in 1988. The signals are that the new Bush administration
and the Beijing leadership are determined to resolve the current upset
through quiet diplomacy.
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- But, if Beijing were to get seriously involved in a proxy
arms race with Washington in the region, Israel would not be alone in ruing
the day it started its secret affair with the Chinese.
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