- LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - This
is the way the world might end: A genetically engineered pathogen is released,
debris from an erupting "supervolcano" blocks the sun or scientists
in the biggest "bioerror" of them all accidentally trigger a
matter-squeezing "big bang."
-
- The demise of civilization has been predicted since it
began, but the odds of keeping Planet Earth alive and well are getting
worse amid a breakneck pace of scientific advances, according to Martin
Rees, Britain's honorary astronomer royal.
-
- Rees calculates that the odds of an apocalyptic disaster
striking Earth have risen to about 50 percent from 20 percent a hundred
years ago.
-
- The 60-year-old scientist, author of the recently published
"Our Final Hour," says science is advancing in a far more unpredictable
and potentially dangerous pattern than ever before.
-
- He lists as mankind's biggest threats: nuclear terrorism,
deadly engineered viruses, rogue machines and genetic engineering that
could alter human character. All of those could result from innocent error
or the action of a single malevolent individual.
-
- By 2020, an instance of bioterror or bioerror will have
killed a million people, Rees contends.
-
- "There is a growing gap between doors that are open
and doors that should be open," Rees, a professor at Britain's Cambridge
University, said in a recent interview.
-
- The cosmologist concedes that natural disasters have
always loomed -- so-called supervolanoes could explode at any time and
asteroids could slam into the planet, causing massive climate changes --
but says the most frightening risks are probably man-made.
-
- "A hundred years ago, the nuclear threat wasn't
even predicted ... but that threat still hasn't gone away," he said.
-
- The arms race, after all, was fueled by science, and
the field has a responsibility to inform a wide public of the risks in
deciding how to apply scientific breakthroughs, he added.
-
- BIOTECHNOLOGY COULD CHANGE HUMAN NATURE
-
- "For the first time ever, human nature itself isn't
fixed. Biotech drugs and genetic engineering are empowering individuals
more than ever before," Rees said.
-
- With rapidly advancing DNA technology, "even a single
person could cause a disaster," Rees warned, noting that the United
States, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and anthrax scare, is well aware
of this threat.
-
- Thousands of people have the ability to engineer viruses
and bacteria to cause deadly plagues. Even if one such "weirdo"
didn't kill many people, that type of biological terrorism would profoundly
change daily life, the scientist warned.
-
- Nanotechnology -- the subject of a recent Michael Crichton
thriller about the havoc caused by runaway microscopic machines -- are
also a potent threat, he said.
-
- If the field advances far enough, rogue self-replicating
nanotechnology machines -- feeding on organic material and spreading like
pollen -- could devastate a continent within a few days, Rees said.
-
- The dangers of global warmingare also addressed in the
book, subtitled "A scientist's warning: How terror, error, and environmental
disaster threaten humankind's future in this century -- on Earth and beyond."
-
- Rees does not discount the possibility of disaster caused
by scientific experiments involving particle accelerators. "Perhaps
a back hole could form, and then suck in everything around it," he
cautions.
-
- So what's to be done?
-
- The British scientist calls for better regulation and
inspection of sensitive data and experiments.
-
- "We need to keep track of those who have potentially
lethal knowledge," Rees said.
-
- He also suggested better efforts to "reduce the
number of people who feel excluded or otherwise motivated to cause harm."
-
-
-
- Copyright © 2003 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited
without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable
for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance
thereon.
|
