- Hello Jeff,
-
- The April growth model currently on your board indicates
it is reasonable to expect just-under 6,000 cumulative SARS cases worldwide.
As of today, 4/28/03, there are 5,050 cases with 2 days to go in the month
with about 200 new cases recorded per day.
-
- I've attached a SARS growth model (.pdf file) which covers
projected disease increase to May 31, 2003. It is reasonable to expect
there will be between 11,000 to 15,000 cumulative SARS cases worldwide
by the end of May, 2003. If it is less than 10,000 we can use that number
as a guage to understand that the disease is being contained; it it exceeds
15,000, we can use that number as a guage to understand that the disease
is not being contained and a pandemic is almost certain. If the numbers
fall withing the confidence interval, we can understand that the war of
disease containment and outbreak is continuing. With the current mortality
rate, figured conservatively, right now, at 6.3% this would translate to
between 700 to 950 cumulative deaths worldwide from SARS by May 31, 2003.
This would also see some 2,200 to 3,000 persons cumulative in extended
intensive care facilities worldwide since the start of the record keeping
on the disease.
-
- Let's hope the substantial quarantine efforts in China
are effective and that the cases now beginning to appear in India and Pakistan
do not generate another outbreak. While there are reports that SARS is
being contained in Vietnam, the numbers suggest we are still heading into
a serious situation. It is too early, in my opinion, to say anything about
any slowing or containment. The numbers suggest the opposite -- that the
disease is growing steadily and is on track for a potentiality in, for
example, October 2003, of over 500,000 cases worldwide.
-
- Bob Lee
-
- SARSMay03proj.pdf
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