- The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently
by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following
is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian
military intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.
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- April 3, 2003, 1301hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - During
the last and today early morning the coalition continued its advance toward
Baghdad that it had begun three days ago. Units of the 3rd mechanized Infantry
Division, failing to quickly capture the town of Al-Khindiya, blockaded
it with a part of their forces and moved around the town from the east
to reach Al-Iskanderiya by the morning. It is not clear right now whether
the US troops were able to take the town of Al-Musaib or if they went around
it as well. The overall [coalition] progress in this direction was about
25 kilometers during the past 24 hours.
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- This thrust came as a surprise to the Iraqi command.
The Iraqi defense headquarters around Karabela remained deep behind the
forward lines of the advancing US brigades. Due to the intensive aerial
and artillery strikes the Iraqi headquarters [in Karabela] lost most of
its communication facilities and has partially lost control of the troops.
As the result the Iraqi defense units in the line of the coalition attack
became disorganized and were unable to offer effective resistance. During
the night fighting the Iraqi forces in this area were pushed from their
defensive positions and withdrew toward Baghdad. The Iraqi losses were
up to 100 killed and up to 300 captured. The US troops destroyed or captured
up to 70 Iraqi tanks and APCs.
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- Currently the Iraqi command is rushing to create a new
line of defense 20-30 kilometers south of Baghdad. The US losses in this
attack were 3 armored vehicles, up to 8 killed and wounded.
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- Late night on April 2 east of Karabela a unit from the
3rd Mechanized Infantry Division went off-course and ran into an artillery
ambush after moving too close to the Iraqi positions. In the resulting
firefight the US forces have lost no less than 8 armored vehicles and,
according to the Iraqi reports, at least 25 US troops were killed or wounded.
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- In the town of Al-Kut US Marine units were able to capture
a bridge across the Tigris; but they were unable to capture the entire
town and currently fighting is continuing in the residential districts.
No fewer than 3 US soldiers were killed and up to 12 were wounded in this
area during the past 24 hours. The US troops are reporting 50 killed and
120 captured Iraqi soldiers.
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- The coalition was able to make serious progress to the
south of Al-Kut. After quickly taking the town of An-nu-Manyah the US forces
have set up a bridge across the Tigris and immediately proceeded to transfer
the Marine units to the left bank. There is a highway going from An-nu-Manyah
to Baghdad along the left bank of the Tigris. No more large populated areas
are located along the highway and the attacking forces may be able to come
within 15-20 kilometers of Baghdad as early as tonight.
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- The blockade of An-Najaf is continuing. Numerous attempts
by the [coalition] troops to reach the center of the town have failed after
being met by Iraqi fire. At least fire [coalition] soldiers have been wounded
and one is missing.
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- The situation around An-Divania remains unclear. Heavy
fighting in this area is continuing since yesterday. The US field commanders
have requested artillery and aviation support on several occasions and
have reported "strong counterattacks by the enemy." It has been
determined that by the evening of April 2 the command of the US 101st Airborne
Division ordered its troops to withdraw from the town in order to create
some space between its forces and the Iraqis to allow for artillery and
aerial strikes. The overall US losses in this area during the past two
days are up to 15 killed and around 35 wounded. At the same time the US
commanders are reporting "hundreds of killed Iraqis; about 50 Iraqis
- some of them wearing civilian clothes - have been captured by the coalition.
There has been a report of another [coalition] helicopter loss in this
area.
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- Resistance is also continuing in An-Nasiriya. The town's
garrison has been fighting for the past ten days and continues to hold
its positions on the left bank of the Euphrates. During the past day there
has been a reduction in the intensity of the Iraqi resistance. However,
the US commanders at the coalition headquarters believe that this is due
to the Iraqis trying to preserve their ammunition, which is by no means
unlimited. According to one of the US officers at the coalition headquarters
elements of the [Iraqi] 11th Infantry Division remain in control on the
left bank of the Euphrates. "...Resilience of this unquestionably
brave enemy is worth respect. Four time we offered them to lay down their
arms and surrender, but they continue resisting like fanatics..."
[Reverse-translated from Russian] During the past night 1 US soldier was
killed and 2 more were wounded in firefights in this area.
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- Another attempt by the British to penetrate Iraqi defenses
near Basra has failed. Up to 2 battalions of the British 16th Air Assault
brigade reinforced with tanks attempted to break through the Iraqi defenses
last night northwest of the Maakil airport along the Al-Arab River. Simultaneously
from the southwest at As-Zubair another 2 marine infantry battalions made
an attempt to enter the area of Mahallat-es-Zubair, but were met with heavy
fire and withdrew after a four-hour-long battle. The Iraqis have reported
2 destroyed British tanks, 5 APCs and no fewer than 30 British troops killed.
However, the British commanders are reporting 4 lost armored vehicles and
5 killed. Additionally, Iraqi air defenses have shot down an F-18 fighter-bomber
of the town. The radio surveillance units reported the loss of another
plane to the north of Baghdad. It is not known whether this plane was shot
down or crashed after losing control due to a technical malfunction.
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- As we can see, the coalition command is continuing with
its "march on Baghdad" tactics. In the course of their advance
the coalition troops are moving around the primary centers of the Iraqi
defense and blockade them leaving the rest of the work to aviation and
artillery. The very near future will show how effective this tactics really
is. So far, according to intelligence reports, more than 50,000 Iraqi troops
continue fighting behind the coalition forward lines at Karabela alone.
No fewer than 5,000 Iraqis are defending An-Najaf and An-Divania. Experts
estimate that the total number of Iraqis fighting behind coalition front
approaches 90,000-100,000 regular army troops and militia.
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- Under such circumstances the coalition has two options:
it can either try to quickly capture Baghdad, thus leaving the Iraqi garrisons
in the occupied territories with no reason to continue with their resistance;
or the coalition troops can dig in around Baghdad and prepare for the final
assault while "cleaning up" the captured territory. The latter
seems more likely as the coalition can use the fresh troops arriving now
to Kuwait for these "clean up" operations. This will also allow
these troops to gain the valuable combat experience fighting the weakened
enemy before the assault on Baghdad.
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- Analysts believe that this war will cause a review of
the role of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on the modern battlefield.
Already the results of using PGM in Iraq cast doubt on the effectiveness
of PGM in woodland areas and in cross-country terrain. Under such conditions
the main objective becomes not to hit the target with the first shot but
to locate, identify and to track the target.
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- Reviewing ground operations [in Iraq] analysts conclude
that the desert terrain and the resulting inability of the Iraqis to fight
outside of towns and villages provide the coalition with its main strategic
advantage. Complete air dominance allows [the coalition troops] locating
and engaging Iraqi positions and armor at maximum distance using precision-guided
munitions not available to the Iraqis, while remaining outside of the range
of the Iraqi weapons. Considering the course of this war and the tactics
used by the coalition, [Russian military] analysts find this tactics to
be far removed from the realities of modern warfare and designed exclusively
against a technologically much weaker opponent. Such tactics is unimaginable
on the European theater of combat with its woodlands and cross-country
terrain. Foreseeing the possibility of a future military standoff between
the US and North Korea the analysts are certain that the US cannot hope
for a military victory on the Korean Peninsula without the use of nuclear
weapons.
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- (source: iraqwar.ru, 04-03-03, translated by Venik)
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