- With the war in Iraq threatening to last significantly
longer than expected, US forces in the Gulf are in increasing danger of
running out of some of their most important weapons in the air war.
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- In the first 11 days of the conflict, the US navy has
fired 700 of its stock of 1,200 Tomahawk cruise missiles on ships and submarines
in the region. Meanwhile, the air force and navy together have used 5,000
satellite-guided bombs, known as JDAMs, which account for more than 80%
of the bombs dropped so far. The JDAM (joint direct attack munitions) arsenals
on the five US aircraft carriers in the Gulf are already running low.
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- One solution is to switch to different types of weapons,
which will happen anyway as the focus of the air campaign shifts from fixed
to moving targets, from palaces and government buildings to tanks.
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- The other solution is to take more Tomahawks and JDAMs
into the region. But even worldwide inventories would not last for many
months, and US military planners, always thinking at least one war ahead,
are concerned that the US might use all its firepower in Iraq and not leave
enough to deal with another possible threat, such as a North Korean attack
on Seoul.
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- There are about 13,000 JDAMs left in stockpiles around
the world, according to air force estimates, and they can be shipped to
the region relatively easily. They may need to be. US warplanes are maintaining
a rate of 500 strike sorties a day (and 1,000 more support flights) as
they continue to attack Baghdad and the Republican Guard divisions around
the city.
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- There are also about 2,300 Tomahawk missiles left in
American global arsenals, enough for about three more weeks of air strikes
at the current rate. They are much harder to bring into action, as the
missile arsenals of ships and submarines cannot be replenished at sea.
More Tomahawks can only be brought to the battlefield by bringing new ships
and submarines into the region.
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- JDAM have a strap-on guidance system added, mainly to
1,000lb or 2,000lb "dumb" gravity bombs, to make them "smart".
They are therefore relatively cheap, about $20,000 each, a fraction of
the cost of other guided bombs and missiles, such as the $600,000 Tomahawk.
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- Boeing, the manufacturer, has been turning JDAMs out
around the clock since the Afghan war, when stocks ran seriously low. It
has also increased its capacity over the past year, but monthly output
is still only 1,500 a month, enough for only about two days at the current
rate of sorties.
-
- Military analysts say there is a limit to the extent
the Pentagon can afford to move its arsenal of munitions around the world
because it cannot leave itself unprepared to face a second, simultaneous
threat elsewhere.
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- "The problem is that there has to be enough for
this war and another one. We would have to be able to respond if the North
Koreans move on Seoul," said Daniel Gour, a military analyst at the
Lexington Institute.
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- But the US armed forces will need fewer Tomahawks and
JDAMs as the war progresses.
-
- Bob Martinage, an expert at the Washington-based Centre
for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments said: "The Tomahawk is meant
to go after fixed targets and they've hit most of those. There are only
so many targets in that target set. When you shift to hitting targets of
opportunity, you don't need them so much."
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- The same is true for JDAMs, which use satellite signals
and GPS (global positioning system) to adjust the tail fins on the bomb,
landing it within a few metres of the target. They need to be programmed
with the targets' coordinates and are less useful against moving targets
like tanks in battle.
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- Mr Gour said as pitched battles get under way between
coalition and Iraqi forces, coalition warplanes would be used less to bomb
buildings and more to serve as close air support. "For that, Mavericks
[heat-guided air-to-surface missiles] and laser-guided weapons," he
said. "Laser-guided weapons are better than JDAMs when you start getting
moving targets."
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- There are already signs that the coalition planners are
running out of fixed targets to bomb. Over the past few days the bombers
have gone back to presidential palaces and government buildings they had
already attacked.
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- When it comes to trying to destroy bunkers, JDAMs and
Tomahawks are not the ideal weapons. For that the US air force has the
GBU 57, a 5,000lb satellite-guided bomb in a hardened casing that can penetrate
12 metres (40ft) of concrete or 30 metres of earth.
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- The Pentagon has already placed orders to replenish its
stocks. Admiral William Fallon, the vice-chief of naval operations, said
last week that the navy was requesting at least $3.7bn to replenish its
munitions stocks to "restore inventories to pre-conflict levels".
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- In the short term, JDAMs can be reallocated from the
air force to the navy. In the longer term, Boeing is due to double its
production to 3,000 a month by the end of this year. The company will supply
the air force and navy with a 250,000 of the guided bombs by 2008.
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,926959,00.html
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