- The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently
by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following
is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian
military intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.
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- March 31, 2003, 1828hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - During
the night of March 30-31 the situation on the US-Iraqi front became increasingly
more critical. All indications are that the coalition has launched a new
attack.
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- Following a three-hour-long artillery barrage and several
nighttime aviation strikes the coalition forces came in contact with the
Iraqi troops near Karabela and attempted to move around the Iraqi defenses
from the east.
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- For now the coalition is limiting its actions to probing
the forward layer of the Iraqi defenses, attempting to assess its density
and organization after nearly five days of artillery and aerial bombardment.
There have been no reports of any coalition breaks through the Iraqi defenses
in this area. At the same time morning radio intercepts uncovered a large
US military convoy moving around the Razzaza Lake. At the moment it is
unclear whether the purpose of this movement is to get to the town of Ar-Ramdia
or a wider maneuver leading to the town of Al-Falludja.
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- Another [coalition] convoy numbering up to 100 combat
vehicles was seen near the town of Al-Hillah moving in the southeaster
direction 30 kilometers from the strategic Baghdad-Basra highway. Given
there is no Iraqi resistance this coalition force will be able to reach
the highway by today's night. So far there were no reports of any losses
in this area.
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- The US forces resumed attacking Iraqi defenses near An-Najaf.
The US group of force in this area has been reinforced with at least three
reserve Marine battalions and now Americans are trying once again to capture
this key town. According to the US intelligence Iraqi defenses in this
area number up to 3,000 troops aided by around 1,500 volunteers and [Ba'ath]
party activists. The Iraqis here are armed with around 30 T-55 and T-62
tanks, up to four artillery batteries and more than 300 various anti-tank
weapons. The town is being stormed by the elements of the 1st Marine Division
numbering up to 6,000 troops assisted by 80 tanks and 60 artillery systems.
Additionally, aerial support is provided by up to 40 helicopters. So far
the Americans were unable to push the enemy. Early today morning an American
tank was destroyed near An-Najaf. At least two of its crew were killed.
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- Intensive exchange of fire is continuing in the vicinity
of An-Nasiriya. The US Marines have so far been unable to side nth staging
area they captured seven days ago on the left bank of Euphrates. The bridge
connecting this staging area with the main coalition forces is nearly destroyed
and is under constant fire from the Iraqi defenses located in the riverside
city blocks. This is the reason why the [coalition] troops holding the
staging area can only be reinforced by small and lightly-armed units and
only during nighttime. During the past night alone the Marines holding
the staging area sustained 2 killed and 5 wounded.
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- The situation [for the coalition] is complicated by the
fact that the residential blocks occupied by the defending Iraqis come
to the very edge of the river, giving a significant advantage to the defenders
who control the river and all approaches to the river. Currently the coalition
artillery and aviation is methodically destroying these blocks in an attempt
to push the Iraqis away from the shoreline.
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- Intercepted radio communications indicate that the Marines
engineering units are ordered to build a pontoon crossing up the stream
from An-Nasiriya and move up to three battalions of Marines and troops
from the 82nd Airborne Division to the left bank of the Euphrates for a
future strike in the rear of the An-Nasiriya garrison. The coalition command
would have been ready to bypass other defended crossings on the Euphrates
if it wasn't for one problem: the entire group of forces has only two pontoon
units. Any new pontoon units will arrive not sooner than in mid-April.
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- A standoff between the Basra garrison and the British
marine infantry is continuing in the area of Basra. Using localized attacks
the British are attempting to "lean" on Basra as closely as possible
and to tighten the blockade, but so far they were unsuccessful. Thus, during
the last night the British attempted to take the town of Al-Hasib located
7 kilometers southeast of Basra. The British plan was to reach the Al-Arab
River and to slice the local Iraqi defenses in half, separating Basra from
the defending Iraqi forces on the Fao peninsula. Up to a battalion of the
British marine infantry supported by armored vehicles entered the town
of Al-Hasib from south but in less than an hour they were stopped by Iraqi
fire and requested aviation and artillery support.
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- Fighting for the control of the town is continuing. At
least two British soldiers were killed and three were wounded in this battle.
One British armored personnel carrier was destroyed. British commanders
are reporting killing 50 Iraqis and capturing 10. In the area of the As-Zubair
River port, which was declared to be under full coalition control just
a week ago, a British patrol boat was attacked. The boat was carrying its
crew and a marine infantry unit. As the result of the attack at least 4
British soldiers were killed and 9 were wounded.
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- The official coalition losses are, to put it mildly,
"falling behind" the actual figures. The 57 dead acknowledged
by the coalition command reflect losses as of the morning of March 26.
This information was provided to a BBC correspondent by one of the top
medical officials at a field hospital in Al Kuwait during a confidential
conversation. "We have standing orders to acknowledge only those fatalities
that have been delivered to the hospital, identified and prepared to be
sent back home. The identification process and the required standard embalming
takes some time - occasionally up to several days. But only the command
knows how many casualties we sustained today and you will learn about it
in about three days" [Reverse-translated from Russian] This conversation
was taped by the journalist and sent to the editor via a cellular phone
network.
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- Based on the radio intercepts and internal information
networks of the US field hospitals as of this morning the coalition losses
include no less than 100 killed US servicemen and at least 35 dead British
soldiers. Additionally, some 22 American and 11 British soldiers are officially
considered to be missing in action and the whereabouts of another 400 servicemen
are being established. The number of wounded has exceeded 480 people.
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- US experts at the coalition command headquarters studied
the cases of destroyed and damaged M1A2 tanks and various APCs. The conclusion
was that without a doubt the Iraqis do possess modern anti-tank weapons
but so far use them on a "very limited scale." Only three tanks
have been hit by guided weapons which destroyed these tanks with the first
hit. The rest of the tanks were destroyed with more standard weapons. Some
of the most common causes [of destroyed armor] include: anti-tank guns
(about 40% of all hits), man-portable rocket-propelled grenade launchers
(25% of hits), and landmines (25% of hits). Effectiveness of anti-tank
artillery has been particularly high. "Impacts by high-velocity projectiles
do not always destroy the tank and its crew. However, in 90% of all cases
the tank is disabled and the crew is forced to abandon the tank on the
battlefield" - says the report that was distributed to the commanders
of the forward units for analysis.
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- Russian military analysts are advising the Iraqi military
command against excessive optimism. There is no question that the US "blitzkrieg"
failed to take control of Iraq and to destroy its army. It is clear that
the Americans got bogged down in Iraq and the military campaign hit a snag.
However, the Iraqi command is now in danger of underestimating the enemy.
For now there is no reason to question the resolve of the Americans and
their determination to reach the set goal - complete occupation of Iraq.
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- In reality, despite of some obvious miscalculations and
errors of the coalition's high command, the [coalition] troops that have
entered Iraq maintain high combat readiness and are willing to fight. The
losses sustained during the past 12 days of fighting, although delivering
a painful blow to the pride and striking the public opinion, are entirely
insignificant militarily speaking. The initiative in the war remains firmly
in the hands of the coalition. Under such circumstances Iraqi announcements
of a swift victory over the enemy will only confuse its own troops and
the Iraq's population and, as the result, may lead to demoralization and
a reduced defensive potential
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- Russian military analysts believe that the critical for
the US duration of the war would be over 90 days provided that during that
time the coalition will sustain over 1,000 killed. Under such circumstances
a serious political crisis in the US and in the world will be unavoidable.
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- (source: iraqwar.ru, 03-31-03, translated by Venik)
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