- The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently
by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate
and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following
is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian
military intelligence (the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU) reports.
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- April 1, 2003, 1404hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST), Moscow - As
of the morning of April 1 active combat operations continued along the
entire US-Iraqi front.
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- The town of Karabela - one of the key points in the Iraqi
defense - is subjected to a continuing artillery barrage. The town outskirts
are being attacked by the coalition aviation. However, so far the US forces
made no attempts to enter the town. Available information suggests that
after evaluating Karabela's defenses the US command made a decision to
delay storming the town. Orders were issued to the coalition troops to
move around the town from the east and to take control of the strategic
Al-Hillah, Al-Khindiya, and Al-Iskanderiya region. Several largest highways
are intersecting in this area, which also contains the three strategic
bridges across the Euphrates. Gaining control of this "triangle"
will finally open the way for the coalition troops into the valley between
the Tigris and the Euphrates and the route to the Babylon-Baghdad highway.
Yesterday and today early morning most heated combat continued in this
area.
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- During a night attack the US forces were able to reach
the center of Al-Khindiya by 0800hrs and to move to the right bank of the
Euphrates. However, their further advance was stopped by heavy fire from
the Iraqi positions across the river. Al-Khindiya is being defended by
up to 2,000 Iraqi soldiers and militia armed with up to 20 tanks and around
250 anti-tank weapons of various types. During this battle one US soldier
was killed, 2 were missing in action and seven were wounded. For now it
is impossible to determine the Iraqi losses. Throughout the night the US
field commanders have reported at least 100 killed and 30 captured Iraqi
soldiers and militia members. However, by morning the number of captured
was revised down to less than 15.
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- The [coalition] effort to capture Al-Hillah was unsuccessful.
All attempts by the US troops to enter the town during the night have failed.
Every time they were met with heavy Iraqi fire near the town. Intercepted
radio communications show that one US APC was destroyed and at least 5
soldiers were killed and wounded.
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- Fighting is continuing near An-Najaf. The town is currently
surrounded from three sides by the US Marines, who are still unable to
enter the town. The Iraqi positions are being subjected to artillery and
aerial bombardment. No information is available about any losses in this
area.
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- Since 0700hrs reports are coming about large-scale attacks
by the US Marines and infantry units against An-Nasiriya. As was previously
expected, up to two Marine battalions deployed on the left bank of the
river to the north of the town have begun advancing on An-Nasiriya from
the north and are now trying to break the Iraqi defenses and to capture
this strategic town. More than a hundred of aerial strikes have been delivered
against the Iraqi positions [at An-Nasiriya] just during today's morning.
There is a continuing artillery barrage. All this indicates the US Marines
are determined to fulfill their orders and take the town. However, so far
neither Marines nor the paratroopers were able to widen their staging area
or to break through Iraqi defenses. Radio surveillance indicates that during
the morning hours of today there were 5 medevac helicopter flights to this
area. At least 3 US soldiers were killed.
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- Another US combat convoy crossed to the left bank of
the Euphrates and by today's morning reached the outskirts of the town
of Ash-Shatra located 40 kilometers north of An-Nasiriya. This unit is
now engaged in combat. For now there is no additional information about
this convoy's losses or movements.
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- Localized fighting is continuing near Basra. Throughout
the last night and today's early morning the British forces were making
attempt to capture the neighboring villages of As-Zubair and Suk-al-Shujuh,
but, despite of overwhelming artillery and aviation support, the British
were forced to return to their original positions. During these battles
1 British soldier was killed, 1 is missing and up to 5 were wounded. No
information is available about the Iraqi losses. According to the reports
by the British, at least 200 Iraqi troops were killed and no less than
50 were captured. However, only under 10 captured Iraqis were delivered
to the British camp and only 4 of them were in military uniform. This was
reported by one of the US journalist located in this area during a phone
conversation with the editor.
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- Active combat reconnaissance operations by both sides
are continuing in the north of Iraq. There have been reports of an attack
launched by an Iraqi battalion against the positions of a US combat unit
from the 82nd Airborne Division. It was reported that during the night
the Iraqis moved around the US position and in the morning attacked the
US forces from the rear. A fierce exchange of fire is continuing in this
area. The US forces have requested aviation support.
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- The combat activity of the Kurds supported by the US
forces was limited to clearing several areas occupied by its long-time
enemy - the militant Islamic group called "Ansar al Islam", after
which the Kurdish units have stopped. Amid calls by the US military for
a continuing offensive the Kurdish troops appear to be in no rush to engage
the regular troops of the Iraqi army and are more interested in reaping
the spoils of war. The Kurdish leadership is not particularly interested
in "leading" the advancing forces. Instead they are calling on
the US to strengthen the US forces deployed in this area. With at least
another 2,000 paratroopers and to "bomb the Iraqis some more."
This indicates that the Kurds are not willing to move their forces too
far from the home bases fearing an attack in the back by the Turkish troops.
Their fears are reinforced by the continuing assurances by the US to respect
Turkey's territorial integrity. The term "territorial integrity"
in this case covers almost 40% of the territory of the current Northern
Kurdistan, which has the de facto independence from Turkey and Iraq. It
is likely that the Kurdish forces will move forward only after the complete
military defeat of the Iraqis, when their desire for the war booty will
make them less cautious.
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- Analysis of the present state of the US-British coalition
fighting in Iraq suggests that the current active combat phase will last
for about 4-5 days. After that the troops will once again require time
for rest, repairs and reinforcement. Most analysts believe that this time
the coalition will require more downtime than the last time, when it stopped
for just long enough to get resupplied and immediately continued their
advance so not to lose the initiative and not to let the enemy come to
their senses. The price of putting this "squeeze" on the troops
is enormous exhaustion and extensive wear of equipment, which is long overdue
for serious scheduled maintenance.
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- At the same time the fresh forces arriving in Kuwait
from Europe and the US will not be able to join the combat before Monday
April 7 as deployment of troops is progressing with many delays and is
poorly organized. The units that already arrived [in Kuwait] cannot get
to their weapons and the weapons already delivered here are sitting here
without the troops to which they are assigned.
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- Because of this the coalition command has ordered the
attacking forces to be as aggressive as they can be to use this short time
to break the Iraqi defenses along the entire line of the front. The troops
are ordered by the end of this operation to advance to the starting positions
for the final assault on Baghdad and to begin preparing to take the Iraqi
capital. This order is specifically referring to the importance of An-Nasiriya,
An-Najaf and the Karabela - Al-Hillah- Al-Iskanderiya "triangle".
These areas will see the most combat action in the upcoming days.
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- Additionally, we should expect elements of the coalition
forces reaching the Amman-Baghdad highway, currently controlled only by
small US paratroop and special operations units and to form here in the
area of Al-Khabbania the western side of Baghdad's blockade. The Al-Khabbania
region also contains three strategic airfields and large stores of weapons
causing serious concern on the part of the coalition.
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- (source: iraqwar.ru, 04-01-03, translated by Venik)
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