- The forward units of the 101st Airborne/3rd Infantry
Division advance towards the SW of the city through the Karbala Gap and
the US Marine Corps Division advance through Al Kut have met only insignificant
opposition. It seems highly unlikely that many of the defenders have simply
melted away into the civilian population here or indeed elsewhere as significant
quantities of heavy equipment such as Tanks, APC, Artillery and the like
have not been found either abandoned or destroyed. Nor have large numbers
of POW's been taken. The Army, Republican Guard and Air Force(largely fighting
as Ground or Air Defence Troops)numbered some 410,000 two weeks ago. The
best estimate we have so far received is that some 10,000 have been taken
prisoner of defected, with a similar number killed or wounded. Iraq would
therefore appear, at least on paper to still have some 390,000 effectives.
This does not include 45,000 well armed paramilitaries and perhaps as many
as another 50,000 Fedayeen and al Quds Guerrilla-style forces(others give
an even higher figure).
-
-
- US claims to have largely destroyed the two main Republican
Guard Divisions defending the southern approaches to Baghdad must be treated
with caution. There is no evidence that catastrophic damage has yet been
inflicted on either unit and the noticeable lack of destroyed and captured
equipment, and dead or captured Iraqi soldiers tends to confirm this. More
importantly AFI Research believes that there are in fact eight identifiable
Republican Guard Divisions, not six as is often reported and indeed the
two Divisions reported to have been opposing the US ground campaign are
believed to have only transferred south from the Northern Corps within
the last month or so. The 2nd Al Medina Armoured Division with the 2nd,
10th and 17th Armoured, and 14th Mechanized Brigades near Karbala and the
5th Baghdad Mechanized Division with the 4th, 5th and 6th Mechanized Brigades
near Al Kut are both reinforcement units.
-
-
- As these two units appear to have been the only such
Divisions involved in any serious fighting so far it is of great interest
to considered the possible deployment of the original Southern Corps formations.
The 1st Hammurabi Mechanized Division is reportedly deployed in well protected
positions to the West of Baghdad with the 8th and 9th Mechanized and 18th
Armoured Brigades; the 6th Nebuchadnezzar Mechanized Division was based
in Al Kut area with the 19th, 22nd and 23rd Mechanized Brigades, but now
appears to have withdrawn into the outskirts of Baghdad; the 8th Special
Forces Division based both in the city and probably behind US lines with
the 33rd, 65th, 66th and 68th Brigades. The 26th Brigade is reportedly
near the Airport and the Al Nida Armoured Division which was based in the
Qal'at Saleh-Amarah area with the 41st, 42nd and 43rd Armoured Brigades.
It is believed that this unit was withdrawn north and is deployed somewhere
behind the Baghdad Division and on the right flank of the US Marine advance.
Inside the city the Special Republican Guard which consists of the First,
Second and Third Mechanized Brigades guarding the three main routes into
the city, and the Fourth Mechanized Brigade held as a strategic reserve
alongside the elite 1st Adnan Tank Regiment at Abu Gharib and 2nd Tank
Regiment at Al Makasib forms another overstrength Divisional sized formation.
-
-
- The Northern Front
-
- The Republican Guard units still deployed north of Baghdad
are the 7th Adnan Mechanized Division based at Mosul with the 11th and
12th Mechanized, and 21st Armoured Brigades and the Al Abed Mechanized
Division based at Kirkuk / Khalid Camp with the 38th, 39th and 40th Mechanized
Brigades defending the Northern Front. In addition there are two largely
intact Regular Army Northern Corps; the First Corps at Khalid Camp in Kirkuk
with the 2nd Infantry Division at Al Rabee, the 5th Mechanized Division
at Kirkuk, the 8th Infantry Division in the Shuwan Area and the 38th Infantry
Division at Qader Karan, while the Fifth Corps is centred on Mosul with
the 1st Mechanized Division at Makhmur, the 4th Infantry Division near
Bashiqa, the 7th Infantry Division near Al Mansour and the 16th Infantry
Division in Mosul.
-
-
- The Southern Front
-
- The considerable remnants of the Third Corps with the
6th Armoured Division near Naserria and the 11th and 51st Divisions bottled
up in the partial-siege of Basrah are still supported by a largely untouched
Fourth Corps at Al-Amara (Amarah) with the 10th Armoured Division, the
14th Infantry Division and the 18th Infantry Division to the north east
along Route-6. The Second Corps originally at Diwaniyah with the 3rd Armoured
Division, the 15th Infantry Division and the 34th Infantry Division is
not reported to have been heavily involved in combat nor yet militarily
out of the picture.
-
-
- Analysis
-
- Iraqi sources, and of course uncorroborated or for that
matter denied by independent sources, have claimed that their actual losses
in equipment have been marginally less than expected; the effectiveness
of the US bombing has also been less than expected though this may be just
bravado. However the air campaign has certainly failed to destroy completely
either the command and control structure or the moral of the ground units
so far. These same sources claim that less than a third of the actual Iraqi
front line fighting force has so far been fully committed to battle and
that much of the fighting has been left to the Special Force Commando's,
stay behind regular Army units and the Fedayeen.
-
-
- Baghdad remains at the centre of a very large area still
under its control, with perhaps 80% of the civilian population of Iraq.
It remains largely unthreatened to the East, North and North West. If the
forces listed above have not laid down their arms and returned home, and
assuming they are still prepared to continue with the fight(and without
large scale surrenders after some two weeks of heavy bombing and ground
attack, that is likely to be the case) then somewhere or other are some
250,000 Republican Guard and regular Army strengthened by perhaps as many
as 75,000 irregulars and all within easy reach of Baghdad, the forward
US units and a goodly part of an exposed 350mile long supply line. In addition
there may still be as many as 80,000 additional forces on the Northern
Front and 60,000 in Central Iraq and the Basrah area.
-
-
- Iraqi sources have suggested that a counter-attack, if
one occurs of course, would be designed to quickly close with the Allied
forces and mix the Iraqi and US units up into a ground 'dog-fight' to neutralize
the US air superiority. The Iraqi's are apparently prepared to sacrifice
a number of major units in order to inflict very severe casualties on the
US 3rd Infantry division in particular. However the most likely scenario
appears to be that the Iraqi command will leave a door open into the city
and harass the advancing Allied troops at every opportunity. It may be
significant that the Iraqi command forecast correctly the time of the US
push on Baghdad to the day and indeed made little serious attempt to destroy
strategically important bridges, lay mine fields at choke points or flood
the low lying areas to impede the US advance. Strange tactics from a country
that has had months if not years to prepare for this invasion.
-
-
- Even when Baghdad is eventually taken, perhaps after
many days or weeks of heavy fighting, the regime may still continue to
use the cities as a 'trap' while making their final stand in the marshlands
to the East, the mountains to the North East and Saddams own heartland
to the North. Unless the US 'gets lucky' or springs a strategic surprise,
Iraq may be able to prolong this war well into the heat of the summer months
with potentially disastrous diplomatic and political consequences for the
Allies internationally and particularly in the Middle East.
-
- Richard Bennett Media rbmedia@supanet.com Tel/Fax +44
(0) 1626 33 50 40
|
