- Like a fox that hears the baying of the hounds, Saddam
Hussein is reported to be in indirect negotiation with Osama bin Laden
over a bolt-hole for a quick escape. He believes that no one but the Islamist
terrorist can provide him with an extra-territorial base complete with
partner to continue fighting the Americans and their allies after they
install a new regime in Baghdad - yet out of their reach.
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- This is reported by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and intelligence
sources. (To subscribe to DNW click HERE)
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- The word going round the staff of General Tommy Franks's
war command and the Pentagon, as well as the CIA officers in charge of
the search for Osama bin Laden, according to those sources, is that the
Iraqi and al Qaeda leaders are in mid-dialogue through their agents. The
Bush government's strategy of isolating Saddam's bastions, psychological
pressure and the subversion of his army appears to be taking effect.
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- Saddam Hussein's potential plan to fight his war against
the Americans from an underground, extra-territorial base - and its perfect
fit with the Saudi-born terrorist's schemes - is fiercely debates in the
western intelligence community. The skeptics cannot see the all-powerful
ruler who has lived the good life in opulent palaces for the last twenty
years, opting like bin Laden for a life on the run, trekking astride a
camel or horse through wild, burning desert regions for long weeks and
months.
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- Wrong, say the believers. Saddam has more on his mind
than just saving himself and his family; he seems to believe he can win
the greatest battle of his life. For victory, he needs to reach a hidden
territorial base outside Iraq ahead of his regime's defeat by the United
States. His only recourse for a base, a safe haven and an operational collaborator
- all in one package - is al Qaeda.
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- Saddam's forward planning, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's
intelligence sources, catches al Qaeda leaders in the midst of their own
debate over priorities: destabilize Saudi Arabia first or recapture Afghanistan
- or both?
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- DEBKA-Net-Weekly was first to reveal on October 18 that
the leader of the Islamic terrorist network was alive and, with his close
associates and family, at safe anchorage in the Empty Quarter fringing
Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Those same sources
now report that Bin Laden leads the camp advocating the deepening of the
network's penetration of Saudi tribes, clergy, security forces, intelligence
and cities. He believes that planting new cells in every branch of the
oil kingdom's ruling establishment and every corner of the country will
in the space of a year or two create the conditions for overthrowing the
Saudi royal house and replacing it with a Wahhabist Islamic republic. From
that point on, nothing will stop the dissemination of the authentic Islamic
revolution far and wide.
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- The clash on Saturday and Sunday, November 16 and 17,
in the A Shaafa suburb of Riyadh between Saudi security forces and young
Saudi "jihadists" was one of the first audible rumbles of the
earthquake to come. Two groups - Saudi fugitives from Afghanistan who were
permitted to return home and new arrivals that bin Laden inserted in the
Saudi capital since his arrival - are already busy imparting military training
to Saudi youths, many of them out of work, as fodder for local militias.
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- Bin Laden's senior lieutenant and partner, the Egyptian
Jihad Islami leader Ayman Zuwahri, holds the second view. He has no objection
to targeting Saudi Arabia, but believes the timing unpropitious. Washington's
preoccupation with Iraq favors the network's chances of success in Afghanistan,
where already the security situation is even worse than in Saudi Arabia.
There too, he argues al Qaeda has a trusted war ally, who commands military
strength and enjoys the support of tribal leaders ready to fight against
the Americans and the shaky Karzai government in Kabul. According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's
Kabul sources our sources, Mullah Omar, the ousted Taliban leader, is getting
ready to launch a guerrilla campaign the length and breadth of Afghanistan
to recapture the country. He expects to exploit the US offensive against
Iraq to rally the Muslim world to the Taliban's cause and point up the
transient nature of any American triumph in Iraq.
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- A lightning advance in Saudi Arabia would be Saddam Hussein's
first preference, according to our Gulf sources. To this end, he would
be prepared to place lavish financial, logistical and intelligence resources
at al Qaeda's disposal. But his ability to influence the argument going
back and forth in the Islamic terror group's top echelon is limited.
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- Whatever is decided by his potential allies, Saddam has
a third option ready to hand should he decide to flee the country ahead
of the American attack. From the deserts of Arabia, he would well placed
to activate any weapons of mass destruction he brought with him without
fear of reprisals. Those weapons would be concealed in locations under
al Qaeda's control. Who would be targeted if Saddam let loose his infernal
devices from a concealed extraterritorial base, by means of surrogate terrorist
cells or his own pre-positioned intelligence agents? He would have to be
found before he could be stopped from stirring up Afghanistan-style unrest
in a US-controlled Iraq.
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- Copyright 2002 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.
- http://www.debka.com/article_print.php?aid=210
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