- An attempted strategic assault against President Vladimir
Putin and Russia's global role in a potential alternative to the Bush Administration's
war policy, has backfired, leaving Russia strengthened. While much remains
to be clarified concerning the hostage drama at the Melnikova St. theater
in Moscow, which began when terrorists invaded the Oct. 23 performance
of the popular musical "Nord-Ost" and ended with the storming
of the theater by Alpha special forces units early on Oct. 26, certain
conclusions can be drawn:
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- First, despite the significant loss of civilian lives,
the retaking of the theater and saving of lives of the majority of the
hostages, constitutes a very big moral and political victory for Russian
President Putin, a victory with potentially far-reaching implications for
strengthening Russia's independence and maneuvering room in the global
crisis. Putin himself, in a sober but powerful statement after the ending
of the hostage crisis, declared to the world, that "no one can bring
Russia to its knees." Even newspapers not usually supportive of the
President, such as {Nezavisimaya Gazeta} and {Izvestia}, backed up Putin
in his hard line against the terrorists, and evaluated the storming of
the theater as a justified and basically successful action.
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- The backfire effect of the hostage affair, is also underlined
by the hysterical reaction in much leading U.S. and European media. The
latter have tried, by sensationalizing the Russian forces' use of an anaesthetic
gas to immobilize the terrorists and by downplaying the context that made
the operation unavoidable, to change the subject--to replace anybody's
initial relief at the freeing of hundreds of hostages, with debates over
the degree of brutality involved in that process.
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- Leading Western anti-terror specialists interviewed by
{EIR}, however, have concurred with the evaluation, that no realistic alternative
existed for the Russian authorities, in view of the evident readiness of
the terrorists to blow up the whole theater with nearly 800 people inside.
The danger was increased by the likely circumstance that the terrorists
had undercover accomplices among the hostages, who posed a major additional
threat in any operation to retake the theater. Finally, medical experts
generally agree, that the high rate of casualties following the gas exposure
was in large part due to the acute state of physical exhaustion among the
hostages, who were deprived of water, food, and medicine, and subjected
to extreme psychological stress, for over 48 hours.
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- The second, absolutely crucial conclusion, is that the
hostage-taking itself was intended to be a devastating strategic blow against
Russia and against Putin's Presidency in particular. Whatever the identity
of the terrorists themselves, the operation had nothing essential do with
the Chechnya issue per se, but very much to do with the global strategic
context, including:
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- 1) Russia's unexpectedly strong stand against the Bush
Administration's Iraq war push in the UN Security Council
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- 2) signs of increased cooperation of Russia with Germany
and France, on Iraq and other strategic issues
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- 3) historic breakthroughs in Russia's relations with
Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries;
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- 4) a revival of Russia's Eurasian diplomacy, including
visits by Putin to China and India planned for later this year
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- 5) an ongoing, global escalation of terror and irregular
warfare, the overall thrust of which is evidently to weaken psychological
and political resistance to the "neo-imperial" policy push from
inside the Bush Administration.
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- The hostage crisis forced President Putin to cancel an
official visit to Portugal, planned for Oct. 24 with a scheduled stopover
for two hours of talks with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, as well
as his attendance at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum
(APEC) summit, held on Oct. 26-27 in Mexico, where he would have met the
Presidents of the United States, China, and other nations of strategic
importance.
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- Inside Element
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- Well-informed Russian security and intelligence experts
have stressed, that the elaborate and highly professional hostage-taking
operation could not have been prepared and carried out by Chechen guerrillas
alone, without the knowledge and support from some contaminated network
inside the Russian security services, and possibly foreign intelligence
services. After the Oct. 26 raid, a report was leaked to {Nezavismaya Gazeta}
and other media, that the terrorists had had a group of accomplices among
the hostages, as well as outside the building, including at least one police
officer who transmitted to the terrorists inside, information concerning
the deployment of the police and special forces. Furthermore, these reports
said, some of the terrorists and their collaborators had been employed
as construction workers on the site of the theater for over a month prior
to the hostage-taking, and were thereby able to systematically prepare
the action. Finally, a large terrorist support infrastructure was uncovered
in Moscow and the surrounding region, including large caches of weapons
and explosives.
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- On the other hand, the Anglo-American and other foreign
intelligence connections to Chechen separatist and terrorist groups are
well documented, extending to London-based "oligarch" Boris Berezovsky
and the infamous Zbigniew Brzezinski, pathological Russia-hater and co-chairman
of the so-called American Committee for Peace in Chechnya.
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- Russian experts had warned repeatedly, during the last
several weeks, that major terrorist operations would be launched against
nations resisting the U.S. drive for war against Iraq. In a stunning promotion
of that linkage, the Oct. 24 lead editorial in Rupert Murdoch's {New York
Post}, published just hours hours after the terrorist attack on "Nord-Ost,"
brazenly called the events in Moscow "poetic justice," a kind
of "punishment" of Russia, for "hindering America's wholly
legitimate efforts to extirpate one of the world's most dangerous sponsors
of terrorism." At the end of the editorial, the {Post} voiced a threat
against the other major opponent of the Bush Administration's Iraq resolution
in the UN Security Council, asking: "Will France be next?"
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- Were Russian-Saudi Negotiations a Target?
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- A well-informed Russian intelligence expert pointed to
another strategic factor in the unleashing and timing of the Moscow attack,
namely the dramatic development of relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia
in recent weeks. According to his report, a delegation from Saudi Arabia
had arrived in Moscow shortly before the hostage-taking, to conduct sensitive
negotiations with the highest levels of the Russian government.
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- The talks aimed at agreement on the following two, interconnected
points: First, that Russia would strengthen its opposition, not only against
the Iraq war, but against the entire Bush plan for "restructuring"
the Middle East. Second, in return for Russian strategic support, a large
sum of Saudi capital would be transferred from the United States and Western
Europe, into Russia. Something on the order of $50-70 billion would be
invested into Russia over the next two years, permitting Russia to "restart
its economy" through infrastructure and other projects. According
to the Russian report, these talks had reached a crucial stage, in the
days immediately preceding the attack.
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- It is confirmed, that Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was
Saudi Intelligence Director from 1973 to August 2001 and is currently Ambassador
to Britain (since September 2002), was in Moscow for high-level meetings
around the indicated time. This first-ever visit by one of the most influential
figures in Saudi Arabia, whose father, Faisal bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud, was
King of Saudi Arabia until his assassination in 1975, would have been sensational
by itself. Moreover, the content of the speech Prince Turki prepared for
delivery at the Moscow Institute for International Relations on Oct. 25,
statements made by the Saudi Ambassador to Moscow, and other reports make
clear that the Saudis and Russians were indeed working on a new sort of
partnership of the indicated dimensions, when the terrorists stormed the
Moscow theater. Prince Turki's speech was postponed, due to the unresolved
hostage-taking, but he was went on to present it on Oct. 27, after the
raid.
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- One need not look very far to find ample reasons for
the Saudis to be interested in cooperation with Russia. Riyadh is well
aware, that the same clique in Washington that is pushing for an Iraq war,
has targetted Saudi Arabia for "regime change" and even dissolution
into three or more separate entities, as part of a scheme for "restructuring"
the entire Middle East and securing direct U.S. control over regional oil
sources. At the same time, the Saudis are well aware of the acute financial
crisis in the United States, and have already begun to withdraw tens of
billions of dollars of their assets out of the U.S. financial system. Where
will that money be invested?
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- Two major issues in Prince Turki's speech and press statements
were the Saudi-Russian opposition to the U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf,
and the Chechen issue. On Iraq, Turki said: "Saudi Arabia's position
is completely identical with the Russian position. It is opposed to any
military act against Iraq, and as Foreign Minister [Prince Saud al-Faisal]
indicated earlier, it will not allow its territory to be used against Iraq."
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- At the same time, Prince Turki explicitly denounced,
after his Moscow speech on Oct. 27, the terrorist act in the Moscow theater,
declaring: "As Muslims and Arabs, we have been, and are still endeavoring
to fight terrorism. We denounce and stand against any terrorist act targetting
innocent civilians, no matter what the demands and grievances of the perpetrators
are. No objectives justify the use of terrorist acts." The same clear
denunciation was featured in Saudi press coverage of the Moscow hostage-taking.
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- Prince Turki stressed Saudi Arabia's respect for Russia's
territorial integrity and revealed that in recent years, his intelligence
organ has been closely cooperating with Russian intelligence on the Chechen
groups, in view of allegations that Saudis were involved in financing and
fighting alongside the Chechen terrorists. According to informed Russian
sources, Turki promised to end all Saudi financial support for radical,
terrorist-connected Islamic groups in and around Chechnya--an assurance
of very great significance to Moscow, especially coming from a man who
is said to have played a key role in organizing and supporting the Afghan
fighters against the Soviet Union in the Afghanistan War.
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- It is well known that much of the structure of "Islamic
terrorism" in the region, including Osama bin Laden's circles, was
created as part of the Anglo-American operations against the Soviets in
Afghanistan--operations which were run in part through channels in Saudi
Arabia. From the Russian point of view, the separatism/terrorism in Chechnya
is part of the same thing. And here again, the alleged support of radical
Wahhabite groups in Chechnya via Saudi Arabia, where the official form
of Islam is Wahhabism, has been a painful thorn in the side of Russia.
Hence the enormous significance for Moscow of Prince Turki's pledges.
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- No less important, however, is the prospect of large-scale
investment into Russia's economy. Saudi Ambassador to Moscow Mohammed bin
Hassan Abdul-Mawla stated, at the same Moscow event, that "the visit
by Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal to Moscow in April and his meeting with
President Vladimir Putin outlined the new road map for cooperation and
realization of common interests." He referred to the inaugural meeting
of the Saudi-Russian Joint Commission on Economic, Commercial, Investment,
and Technical Cooperation, held in mid-October, and added, "The new
year will witness the signing of an agreement on the protection of investments
and prevention of double taxation, in order to establish the necessary
ground for economic cooperation between the two states."
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- Meanwhile, it was reported that the reserves of the Saudi
Arabian Central Bank have skyrocketed as a result of the repatriation of
Saudi investments from the tottering U.S. financial system. It makes perfect
sense, that the Saudis would consider putting their financial assets to
work in large-scale infrastructure projects, for example, in Russia and
other parts of Eurasia, as an alternative to having them "evaporate"
in a general systemic financial collapse.
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- Note from Mark Sonnenblick (EIRradio@hotmail.com)-- Dr.
Tennenbaum is an American scientist who is often a featured speaker at
the Russian Academy of Sciences and at other centers in Russia and China.
He serves as an emissary for Lyndon LaRouche's ideas on topics ranging
from physics and "the economics of the noosphere" to strategic
issues. The quality of interaction which the LaRouche movement maintains
with world leaders is reflected in the quality of intelligence which helps
make EIR the world's most reliable newsweekly.
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- EIR publishes the Electronic Intelligence Weekly. If
you haven't seen EIR, call 1-888-347-3258 for a complementary copy of our
72-page printed edition. Say "I saw it on Rense.com." The above
article will appear in next week's EIW and EIR.
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