- China is expected to choose a new leader soon. Yet, there
are indications that current president, Jiang Zemin, does not want to go
as originally planned. Manik Mehta, a free-lance writer based in New York
delves into just what is going on behind closed doors in China.
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- When Hu Jintao was in the United States a few months
back, the U.S. media accepted him as heir apparent to succeed Chinese Communist
Party Chief Jiang Zemin by the end of the year. A few months after his
widely publicized U.S. visit, Hu's future is in doubt because Jiang seems
reluctant to relinquish power. How did this come about? Obviously, Jiang
has had second thoughts. China specialists say that Jiang has been quietly
canvassing supporters to retain his party position while outwardly demonstrating
acquiescence to Hu succeeding him. Jiang's true face was revealed at a
party meeting in Beidahe, a seaside resort, last month.
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- The meetings reportedly involved hefty exchanges between
those supporting and those opposing Jiang. Revelations about Jiang's ambitions
surprised many, including his supporters. He was viewed as a fatherly figure
in his own circle and many thought he would ride quietly into the sunset.
But as they say, power corrupts, and in Jiang's case, absolute power has
corrupted absolutely. His ascent to the top of the power ladder in the
past 15 years has been astonishingly quick and trouble-free, and now having
reached the pinnacle of power, he seems reluctant to go. Speculation continues.
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- It is no secret that Jiang would like to keep his grip
on the Central Military Commission. Should he succeed in retaining key
positions as military and party chief, he is expected to give up the state
presidency--an essentially ceremonial post. Despite his great power and
influence, Jiang may still not get the majority he needs and may therefore
have to relinquish the party chairmanship. If he refuses, this would have
repercussions for an entire generation of political actors. Jiang would
be blocking not only Hu but also Wen Jiabao who is expected to take over
from Zhu Rongji as prime minister. The horsetrading behind closed doors
has been of little interest to the Chinese public, which has long been
indifferent to happenings among the political leadership.
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- Most Chinese people, long suppressed under the yoke of
socialism, seem to have one favorite preoccupation now: making money. The
opening started by Deng Xiaoping was the opportunity they had long awaited.
Deng, who made a miraculous comeback after being ousted and humiliated
in the turmoil of the destructive Cultural Revolution, ensured that his
legacy would be preserved by the next generation of politicians headed
by Jiang, and the transition from Deng to Jiang was smooth.
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- The CCP has
been quietly grooming Hu for the highest position in the land. After becoming
state vice president in 1998, he was appointed vice chairman of the Central
Military Commission the following year. To provide him with the necessary
"international exposure," a prerequisite for the presidency,
he was dispatched to hold talks with leaders in Russia and four countries
of Europe in 1991. Hu's crowning achievement, though, came during his meeting
with U.S. President George W. Bush during the latter's visit to China this
year, followed by Hu's visit to Washington for meetings with leading political
figures. Hu's international experience may not be sufficient for the liking
of many Jiang supporters, who feel that the crown prince is not experienced
enough to deal with extremely delicate international flashpoints, one of
which is Taiwan. Dealing with Taiwan unification is an acid test for any
future Chinese leader.
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- Thanks to the incessant propaganda emanating from the
Jiang camp, Hu is rated pretty low in his abilities to cope with the extremely
sensitive Taiwan issue, which is often used by Chinese politicians to whip
up emotions. Jiang supporters are also reportedly spreading the word that
Hu would find it difficult to stop the United States from providing arms
to Taiwan--something that further strengthens the island republic's resolve
to follow its own path, a euphemism for independence.
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- Ostensibly, the CCP is also concerned with the United
Nations, where demonstrations seeking Taiwan's admission to the international
body have been staged. Indeed, massive campaigns in the U.S. media by ambassadors
from countries friendly to Taiwan, mainly in Africa, the Pacific and Latin
America, urging the international community to allow Taiwan to become a
member of the United Nations have alarmed Chinese politicians. Another
problem is Hu's position within the party. Rising from his current position
at No. 21 to the exclusive top seven is a long climb. Hu's inability to
work his way up would also affect the political future of Wen, who will
not be able to overstep Hu to get the third most important position--that
of prime minister.
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- Then there is Li Lanquing, a former foreign trade minister,
and now No. 7. There is speculation that Li, already in his early seventies,
may even be offered the post of prime minister. Given Li's age and seniority,
his appointment as minister would soften the blow for Hu. In such an eventuality,
Wen would assume the seventh most important position in the party as executive
vice premier. But Jiang's reluctance to relinquish party chief is not going
to be smooth sailing. He is facing criticism on a number of issues such
as his initiative to allow capitalists to join the CCP, the ever-widening
gap between the rich and poor, and between regions. Take the differences
in terms of development between the Pearl River Delta and the interior
for example. Jiang has also been criticized for his lack of enthusiasm
in bringing about much-debated political reforms. In addition, Jiang must
also face down foreign critics, who will no doubt throw darts at him for
clinging onto power.
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- Copyright (c) 2002 by Manik Mehta.
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- Mr. Mehta is a freelance writer based in New York
- 10-25-2
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