- The Russian government allowed a leak of information,
which said that the new United Nations resolution on Iraq (which is currently
being developed by the US State Department) is not good for Russia. The
Iraqi opposition has already claimed that all oil contracts made by the
"dictator" are going to be reconsidered. It was added, however,
that preference will be given to American oil companies. It does not matter
what role Russia would like to obtain in the new world order. It is perfectly
clear that Russian interests in Iraq cost much more. Vladimir Putin allegedly
promised that he will stand up for the interests of the Russian oil producers
in Iraq.
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- Well informed Moscow sources said to the Polit.Ru website
that the new variant of the UN resolution on Iraq will not have many differences
from previous American and British suggestions on the subject. This will
definitely not be good for Russia and other permanent members of the UN
Security Council, which are against military aggression towards Iraq.
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- Russian politicians expressed their disappointment with
the American policy, since they expected that more attention would be paid
to the positions of other countries. However, it seems that the USA intends
to grab it all. Spokesman for the opposition Iraqi National Congress Sharaf
bin Ali Hussein has already found time to announce that all oil contracts
will be reconsidered if the opposition comes to power in Iraq. He particularly
mentioned contracts with Russian and French oil companies. Ali Hussein
added that this does not mean that those contracts will be eliminated.
They will just take into account of the "dictator's" signature.
The leader of the Iraqi opposition promised that priority will be given
to American oil companies.
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- It is obvious that this potential new Iraqi government
is not interesting either for Moscow or for Paris. The idea of the Russian
military headquarters organizing its own coup in Iraq is becoming more
and more real. Russia has no other such interests in other countries of
the Middle East. The protection of these interests is likely to become
a new national idea, an idea that Boris Yeltsin and Co. failed to find.
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- Russian oil giant LUKOIL's contract for the development
of Iraqi oil deposits is evaluated to be worth $20 billion. LUKOIL concluded
a contract with the Iraqi state oil company. The extraction of oil can
not be started until the lifting of UN sanctions. However, LUKOIL has already
managed to invest a lot of money in the development of the deposit.
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- It is worth mentioning here that similar contracts were
concluded with the Iraqi government by Western oil companies as well, for
example, the French company Totalfinaelf SA and the Italian company Eni
Spa. Experts had doubts regarding those transactions. Now it is becoming
obvious that the American administration wants all Iraqi oil for its own
oil companies.
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- The Wall Street Journal wrote about an opportunity of
new competition for the development of the deposits, which have already
been invested in by the above-mentioned companies. This is not good for
anyone else other than America, for Russia, first and foremost.
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- President of the Russian company LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov
does not want to hide the fact that he has repeatedly discussed the fate
of the Russian oil companies in Iraq. He particularly discussed the issue
pertaining to LUKOIL's controlling stock in the Iraqi oil project with
Vladimir Putin.
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- LUKOIL's president said that neither Washington nor the
Kremlin promised him any guarantees. However, Alekperov is still sure that
his contract will remain legal, no matter what kind of future regime Iraq
might have. "Our contract was signed according to the norms of the
international law. I am sure that Iraqi laws will be observed regardless
of events," said Vagit Alekperov.
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- LUKOIL's Vice President Leonid Fedun earlier stated that
if the new Iraqi regime is not friendly to Russia, it might ruin the plans
of the company in Iraq. "Furthermore, we do not hear any statements
from the American government about the execution of the current contracts.
As far as I can understand, the Russian leadership must be interested in
these questions," said Leonid Fedun.
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- To top it off, LUKOIL already has certain difficulties
with the incumbent Iraqi administration. Iraq tried to force the Russian
company do the things that were not stipulated in the contract. The LUKOIL
administration was even forced to announce the cessation of its activities
in Iraq. That statement was explained by the possibility of a military
operation in Iraq. However, LUKOIL does not want to hide the fact that
the obtrusiveness of Iraqi officials is becoming tiresome for Russian oligarchs.
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- Russia has realized the inevitability of an American
war against Iraq. This is the common opinion that Western countries have
about Russia nowadays. Russian diplomacy does not have any real opportunity
to influence the situation. Only a mentally unbalanced person would think
to render military support to the Iraqi "dictator." No Russian
man will go to defend Hussein's regime. Hussein is not one of the "good
guys."
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- Foreign analysts are right when they say that the Russian
government was disappointed with Saddam Hussein's regime and his policy.
The World Tribune wrote that Putin did not believe anymore that Baghdad
would payback its ten billion dollar debt. Iraq has this debt from the
Cold War era, when Soviet specialists came to Iraq for the first time and
established the oil industry there. Yet, the return of that debt is a lot
more attractive to Russia than even its share in Iraqi oil.
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- On the other hand, Russian oligarchs continue to say
that President Putin is sure that the end of Saddam's regime will never
exert any negative influence on Iraq. A spokesman for LUKOIL Mikhail Dolgov
said that Moscow is obliged to stand up for the interests of Russian companies
in Iraq, regardless of the Baghdad regime. Vladimir Putin has to work on
this problem now. The presidential election is to take place in Russia
in 2004. Putin might pay with his second term for the helplessness of the
Russian government in the Iraqi problem. Presidents cannot afford such
jokes.
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- What if Russia deploys its commandos to Baghdad for the
sake of saving the people of Iraq from the horror of war? This no longer
seems to be the idea of a lunatic. This move could become much more efficient.
Probably, it could provoke a crisis that the CIA and the US State Department
analysts did not even think of. Then, it will be the time for a different
kind of world order, taking into consideration everybody's interests.
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