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China Hints at Leadership Change
By Jeremy Page
11-7-2

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Communist Party offered the vaguest of clues to a new leadership lineup on Thursday as the government gave sagging stock markets a shot in the arm on the eve of a watershed party congress.
 
More than 2,000 party delegates from every corner of China gathered in the cavernous Great Hall of the People to elect a Presidium spanning the old and new guard to oversee its 16th congress.
 
In front of the imposing Soviet-style building, Tiananmen Square was sealed off from the public but strewn with red flags, slogan-bearing banners and even coconut palms to mark what is billed as the first orderly succession in Communist China.
 
President Jiang Zemin, 76, is expected to step down as party chief with other leaders over 70 in the most dramatic reshuffle since purges following the bloody 1989 Tiananmen crackdown on student protesters.
 
On Friday, Jiang is due to deliver his last policy speech hailing the country's achievements and outlining policy for the next five years.
 
Chinese authorities have gone out of their way to create a "favorable atmosphere" for the congress, detaining an outspoken democracy activist, executing dozens of criminals and warning Chinese reporters they will be jailed for leaks.
 
The government gave China's 60 million stock punters a pre-congress perk, saying select foreign investors would be allowed into the massive $500 billion stock markets in a move expected to boost share prices which have fallen 30 percent in 17 months.
 
"The implication of the timing is clear to all," said one analyst who declined to be identified.
 
OPENING UP THE PARTY
 
The congress is also expected to change the party's constitution to allow private entrepreneurs to join in a bid to make it more relevant to rapidly changing China.
 
Congress spokesman Ji Bingxuan said on Thursday the party would broaden its membership to include "outstanding elements from new social strata" -- code for private entrepreneurs long excluded as capitalist exploiters.
 
But the party would not forsake its core membership of workers, peasants, soldiers, intellectuals and party cadres, congress spokesman Ji told a news conference.
 
"I think I can tell you with no doubt at all enrolment of outstanding people from new social strata will not change the nature or purposes of the party at all," he said.
 
"We must proceed from our own national conditions and unswervingly embark on a road of our own toward political development," he said. "We should by no means simply copy the political systems or models in the West."
 
His comments set the ideological tone for the congress but shed little light on expected personnel changes.
 
The Presidium elected Vice President Hu Jintao as secretary-general of the congress, along with a 32-member Presidium Standing Committee, he said.
 
Jiang is expected to hand his top party post to Hu but to maintain power by installing allies into the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's top policy body which now has seven members, Chinese sources say.
 
NEAREST THING TO DEMOCRACY
 
Several candidates for those seven seats joined the Presidium Standing Committee, analysts said.
 
They included Zeng Qinghong, Jiang's main protege, who stepped down as head of the party's organization department two weeks ago, as well as internal security chief Luo Gan, and China's most powerful woman, State Councillor Wu Yi.
 
Wu Guanzheng, party boss of Shandong province, Li Changchun, party chief in Guangdong province, and Jia Qinglin, who stepped down as party boss in Beijing two weeks ago, were also in there.
 
"Particularly given our understanding of where the leadership is heading, it seems to be showing that these are people who are going to be in the top leadership spots," said one diplomat.
 
"I think it shows who may be the state councillors, the vice premiers and some in the Politburo Standing Committee."
 
At the last congress in 1997, the Presidium Standing Committee included all the incumbent and future members of the Politburo Standing Committee as well as three incoming members of the Politburo.
 
Next week, the congress will formally elect a new Central Committee of about 200 members, which will then hold its first meeting and choose a Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee.
 
But the Presidium sets the agenda, draws up candidate lists for the new Central Committee and supervises voting.
 
The final vote is held on the last day of the congress on November 14 but the result is effectively set in advance by unofficial preliminary rounds, Chinese sources say.
 
"If they are not happy with the result of a preliminary vote, the Presidium leaders go round to negotiate with the different delegations," said one Chinese political scientist who declined to be identified.
 
"It is the closest thing we have to democracy."





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