- President George Bush has accelerated planning for a
massive military attack against Iraq amid White House fears that Saddam
Hussein will defy last Friday's UN resolution commanding him to disarm.
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- According to US sources, quoted in today's New York Times,
Bush and his senior officials have approved an outline plan for the removal
from power of Saddam even as other members of the Security Council - notably
Russia - declared that Resolution 1441 had averted the threat of a US-led
war against Iraq.
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- The plan - final details of which were approved by Bush
well before the Security Council's vote on Friday to disarm Iraq - envisages
a land attack on Iraq by upwards of 200,000 troops, up to 20,000 of them
British. The Britons are likely to get provisional deployment orders next
week.
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- The plan envisages four US divisions plus one UK armoured
division and planners are working around two attack dates, one for early
January and a second for late February. The British force will include
the 7th Armoured Brigade - the Desert Rats - and up to 200 Challenger tanks,
as well as elements of the SAS.
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- The plan foresees an air phase of the campaign - designed
to soften up Iraqi air defences, communications and headquarters - considerably
shorter than the bombing campaign that opened the last Gulf War.
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- American and allied forces would quickly grab footholds
within Iraq, a prelude to a widening rolling campaign that US planners
envisage would 'isolate' the leadership within rapidly tightening pockets.
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- Military commanders believe that the recent sharp increase
in bombing of Iraqi targets - which has seen missions in the northern and
southern no fly zones increase by upwards of 40 per cent - has already
softened up anti-aircraft and anti-shipping missile facilities and command
posts to the degree that troops could quickly force their way deep into
Iraq.
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- The plan calls for the quick capture of land which would
be used as bases to funnel American forces deeper into the country. That
approach is intended to relieve some of the diplomatic pressure created
by massing troops and initiating attacks from neighbouring countries, including
Saudi Arabia.
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- As the Pentagon puts the finishing touches to the plan,
White House and State Department officials are discussing what one senior
official called a 'seamless transition' from attack to a military occupation
of parts of the country.
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- It would include efforts to deliver food to Iraqis and
engage them quickly in planning for economic development and eventual democracy
in areas that Saddam has terrorised.
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- Disclosure of the plans follows claims by senior British
and US officials that both Bush and Tony Blair privately regard war against
Saddam as inevitable.
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- British sources believe that although he will almost
certainly 'agree' to the UN resolution, the advice that he is receiving
from both pragmatists and hardliners within his regime are ultimately aimed
at hiding his programmes for weapons of mass destruction from UN scrutiny.
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- However deep splits began to emerge yesterday over the
precise mandate given by the Security Council to the effort to disarm Saddam.
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- Senior US have officials made it clear that the language
of the resolution gave Washington a legal basis to go to war unilaterally
if the Security Council could not agree on how to respond to further violations
by Baghdad.
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- Despite being hailed as an historic agreement, in the
hours after it was passed by a unanimous vote Bush admonished the Security
Council not to 'lapse into unproductive debates over whether specific instances
of Iraqi non-compliance are serious'.
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- The most hawkish members of the administration - including
Vice-President Dick Cheney and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - are
understood to be urging the President to act at the first sign of Iraqi
non-compliance, rather than wait months while Saddam spins out an inspections
crisis through the winter.
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- They anticipate that Iraq may fall at the first hurdle
by failing to deliver a complete inventory of his programmes for weapons
of mass destruction, triggering an attack.
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- Iraq is expected to give its formal reply to the resolution
within a few days.
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- Although Saddam is expected to agree to accept the new
resolution, diplomats say the test will be in his willingness to make full
disclosure of, and grant access to, his contested weapons sites.
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- In comments designed to irritate hardliners in the Bush
administration, Iraq's Foreign Minister, Naji Sabri, praised the Security
Council for 'thwarting' American attempts to use it as a cover to attack
Iraq.
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- http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,837318,00.html
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