- LONDON (Reuters) - A war
against Iraq could escalate into a nuclear conflict that would kill nearly
four million people and have catastrophic health and environmental consequences,
medical experts said on Tuesday.
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- Even without nuclear weapons, as many as half a million
people could die, civil war, famine and epidemics could occur, oil fields
may be set ablaze and the entire region could be embroiled in the conflict.
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- Many more people would probably be displaced, economic
collapse in Iraq could ensue and soaring oil prices could trigger a global
economic crisis, according to global health organisation Medact.
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- "The need to ensure that Iraq is disarmed of its
weapons does not warrant a war," said Gill Reeve, the assistant director
of the group of doctors, nurses and health experts.
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- In a report, Medact considered how the substantial use
of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) might trigger a nuclear response.
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- "An Iraqi CBW attack on Israel or elsewhere could
provoke immediate nuclear retaliation from Israel, the U.S. and/or UK while
the UK and U.S. have not ruled out the nuclear first-strike option,"
it noted.
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- Reeve told Reuters: "We're making a last ditch effort
to make people see reason, to think about the consequences."
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- Medact argues that other options are available and described
the massive death and destruction a war with Iraq would cause.
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- In a report that examines the impact of the war from
a public health perspective, the group warns that any conflict against
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is likely to drag on, would cost as much
as $200 billion and leave Iraq in ruins.
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- "The US goal of leadership change is counterbalanced
by Saddam Hussein's goal of survival, so a short, clinical campaign is
probably wishful thinking," it said.
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- TIME RUNNING OUT
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- Saddam has until Friday to cooperate with a United Nations
resolution to eliminate all weapons of mass destruction programmes or face
the consequences.
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- Iraq's parliament voted on Tuesday to reject the resolution
but ultimately the final decision will be Saddam's.
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- U.S. officials have said they are sceptical he will comply
and President George W. Bush has already approved a war plan to oust the
Iraqi leader.
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- Based on data from the Gulf War, comparable conflicts
and information from political sources, the Medact report entitled Collateral
Damage envisions air attacks on government and military facilities in Iraq,
followed by ground forces to seize control of oil-producing regions and
the north of Iraq and then more ground and air attacks to take the capital
Baghdad.
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- The report, which is available on www.medact.org, warns
that Saddam could retaliate by setting fire to oil wells, releasing chemical,
radiological or biological weapons or by launching attacks on Kuwaiti or
Saudi oil fields or civilian centres in other Gulf states.
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- "There would be widespread damage to the environment
of Iraq and possibly neighbouring countries. Oil wells would be fired,
creating spills and toxic smoke. Troop movements and land mines will destroy
the fragile desert economy," Reeve said.
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- Refugees escaping the conflict would die in large numbers
and put a strain on neighbouring countries. Emergency relief is likely
to cost billions, she added.
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- Iraqis are still suffering from the results of the 1990-1991
Gulf War and subsequent sanctions and their health has not returned to
pre-war levels. Any new conflict would be more intense and destructive
than the Gulf War and hit them extremely hard, according to the report.
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- Medact, the British affiliate of International Physicians
for the Prevention of Nuclear War which won the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize,
estimates it will cost $200 billion in arms spending, occupation, relief
and reconstruction.
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- That amount could easily pay for the health needs of
the world's poorest people for about four years.
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