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CIA Says Iraq Unlikely To
Use WMD Unless Attacked
White House 'Sure' of Iraq
Threat Despite CIA Letter

By Arshad Mohammed
10-8-2

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Wednesday defended its view that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction threaten the United States despite a CIA assessment that Baghdad was unlikely to use them unless attacked.
 
A CIA letter made public on Tuesday cited a low chance of an unprovoked Iraqi attack and a "pretty high" chance of Baghdad striking, perhaps with chemical or biological weapons, if the United States struck first.
 
The letter, released by Senate Democrats who want a broader debate on whether to attack Iraq, was unlikely to derail what are expected to be overwhelming votes in Congress to authorize President Bush to use military force against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
 
"We're at war," Bush told Hispanic-Americans in a speech in which he cited Iraq as a threat but did not directly address the CIA letter. "We're still at risk here in America."
 
In a sign of U.S. preparations for a possible strike against Iraq, the United States said it was lobbying Qatar to allow U.S. forces to hit Iraq from its Al Udeid air base.
 
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer denied there was any difference between Bush's assessment of the Iraqi threat and the CIA's, saying both were convinced "the likelihood of Saddam using WMD (weapons of mass destruction) for blackmail, deterrence or otherwise grows as his arsenal builds."
 
Iraq denies it possesses chemical and biological weapons, known as CBW in Washington jargon, or that it is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons that the United States fears Iraq will use to blackmail its neighbors and the world.
 
"If Saddam Hussein holds a gun to someone's head while he denies he even owns a gun, do you really want to take a chance that he'll never use it?" Fleischer told reporters.
 
BUSH CALLS CHIRAC
 
The CIA letter, sent to Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham, said, "Baghdad for now appears to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks with conventional or CBW against the United States.
 
"Should Saddam conclude that a U.S.-led attack could no longer be deterred, he probably would become much less constrained in adopting terrorist actions," it added.
 
Senate Democrats asked the CIA to declassify portions of its briefings on Iraq partly because they believed some of what the intelligence community has told them contradicts the Bush administration's argument for possibly striking Iraq.
 
The Republican-led House is expected to approve, possibly on Thursday, a resolution giving Bush authority to attack Iraq, and the Democratic-led Senate is headed in the same direction, although procedural hurdles could delay a vote into next week.
 
Fewer than 15 senators are expected to vote against the resolution. In a clear sign of the Senate's drift, Sen. Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat and assistant Senate majority leader, said he would vote for the resolution, as he backed the 1991 Gulf War led by Bush's father, former President George Bush.
 
"We have not enlisted, as your father did so magnificently, the whole world to fight by our side, we have not yet convinced our people or the world that international law is on our side," Reid said in comments addressed at the Republican president.
 
While the congressional votes appear assured, Bush has had far greater difficulty persuading the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- notably France -- to approve a single resolution calling for tougher U.N. weapons inspections backed up by the threat of force if Iraq refuses.
 
The United States and Britain want a resolution giving inspectors sweeping powers to search for chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in Iraq, and threatening force if it does not comply.
 
Bush made his case for a single resolution in a 25-minute telephone call to French President Jacques Chirac, who has argued for two resolutions -- one calling for new inspections and a second to deal with the use of force if Iraq refuses.
 
"The president stated the stronger the resolution and the stronger the statement of consequences if Saddam Hussein ignores the United Nations, the more likely the matter can be resolved peacefully," a senior U.S. official said.





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