- Western Australia is in for 100 years of high temperatures
and low rainfall as scientists predict a permanent climate change that
will dry out the State.
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- The long-term prognosis is not good, with evidence suggesting
an extended dry that will last well into the next century.
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- The scientists said WA had to rethink its water resources,
building design and urban planning and adapt to the possibility of a permanent
future as a dry State.
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- The grim prediction will underlie WA's much-awaited water
symposium which starts at Parliament House on Monday.
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- The forum will be confronted with the new evidence as
it meets to discuss a range of scenarios for WA's water future.
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- "I don't think there is any scenario that anticipates
an increase in rainfall," symposium chairman Professor Wally Cox said
yesterday. "We need robust strategies to manage an uncertain future.
That is the reality."
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- The long-term forecast was culled from nine global climate
models, seven of which predict significantly less rainfall in the southern
half of the State in the next 100 years.
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- Much of the evidence has been collected in a report by
the Government department think-tank, Indian Ocean Climate Initiative,
which draws together five years of national and international studies on
WA weather patterns.
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- It reveals a 20 per cent drop in winter rainfall in the
past 30 years and predicts that the average maximum temperature in WA could
rise from 23.3C to 24.3C by 2030 and 26.3C by 2070.
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- A steady mean temperature rise - 0.7C in the past 50
years - is believed to be due largely to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
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- Land-use changes and increased local air pollution are
named as contributing factors in the simultaneous drop in rainfall.
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- Global land use and ozone depletion also may have played
a part.
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- The State Government will draw on the report's findings
for its greenhouse policy and also use it to guide its final sustainability
and water conservation strategies.
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- Senior CSIRO scientist Tom Hatten said there should be
legitimate concern about declining rainfall trends in the past 25 years.
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- "It doesn't mean that it is proof that we are going
through climate change," Dr Hatten said.
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- "But I think what we are seeing is a mixture of
natural climate variability and climate change."
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- He said no prediction or global model could be absolutely
certain but the evidence came with strong conclusions which should be seen
as a warning.
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- Professor Cox said the predictions posed serious issues
for WA.
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- "The modelling that has been done indicates WA could
well face significant reduction in rainfall over and above that currently
being experienced," he said. "This would have significant impact
in terms of development of new water sources and the community's adaptation
to reduced water availability."
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