- Summary
-
- Washington and Moscow appear to be discussing a possible
deal in which Russia would not veto a U.S. attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security
Council in exchange for Washington's tacit agreement on a Russian counterterrorist
operation in Georgia. If the deal holds, Iraq's fate will be soon sealed,
but the consequences could hurt Russia as well in the end.
-
- Analysis
-
- Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Sept. 11
to send troops into Georgia's Pankisi Gorge unless Tbilisi deals with Islamic
militants -- including alleged Chechen rebels -- within its borders, the
BBC reports. On Sept. 12 Putin also warned the United Nations that Russia
would take "necessary measures" to defend itself against cross-border
Islamist attacks if Tbilisi cannot control the gorge.
-
- The Bush administration, which until just a few days
ago publicly supported Georgia against such Russian threats, recently said
through statements by U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow that al Qaeda
agents are operating not only in the Pankisi but also in Chechnya. Vershbow
also met with Russian officials Sept. 12 for talks on anti-terrorism cooperation
and Iraq.
-
- It appears that the United States and Russia may be close
to some form of an "Iraq-for-Georgia" deal. This likely means
that Moscow will not veto an American attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security
Council in exchange for U.S. acquiescence to a planned Russian operation
in Georgia. It also suggests that one of the last obstacles for a U.S.
war on Iraq is being removed and that Baghdad's fate soon will be sealed.
-
- http://www.stratfor.com/fib/fib_view.php?ID=206246
|
