- The United States has begun the massive military build-up
required for a war against Iraq, ordering the movement of tens of thousands
of men and tonnes of matÈriel to the Gulf region.
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- Despite the assurances of President George Bush and Tony
Blair that 'no decisions' had been made on how to deal with the threat
posed by Saddam Hussein, compelling evidence has emerged in the past week
that the US has begun a military build-up not seen since the last Gulf
war. Among the troops arriving in the region are an estimated 2,500 in
Jordan. Although officially en route for an exercise, sources claim their
real purpose is to provide anti-missile protection in the Jordanian desert
to give Israel advance warning against any Iraqi attack launched in response
to a US invasion.
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- Last week Reuters reported that the US navy had chartered
a large civilian cargo carrier to take battle tanks to the Gulf at the
end of September. However, sources familiar with the ship's manifest claim
that the cargo is missiles, ammunition and tracked transport vehicles for
a build-up of munitions for an air campaign. In the next move up to 20,000
US Marines from Camp Pendelton in California are to arrive in the region
in mid-October.
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- There have also been persistent reports that US and British
Special Forces have established an operating base near Incerlik in Turkey,
from which they have begun mounting liaison missions into northern Iraq
in recent weeks.
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- Sources say British military liaison teams have arrived
in the Gulf. They claim Britain is likely to agree to commit a 'division
minus' - comprising two armoured brigades - to support the three US divisions
expected to be deployed.
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- The slow but persistent build-up is reminiscent of the
slow gathering of forces prior to the Gulf war, which was characterised
by blanket official denials that the troop movements were related to preparations
for war.
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- In a further sign that US and British forces are preparing
for attacks on Iraq, allied aircraft struck a ground-based Iraqi anti-shipping
missile site at Basra in the early hours of yesterday.
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- That strike followed raids against Iraqi air defence
sites last week that sources claim may have involved up to 100 planes.
Similar attacks have been carried out every few days this year. These types
of attacks were common during the Clinton administration but were discontinued
by President Bush because they were thought to be achieving little.
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- Their resumption is part of the military and political
preparation for a larger assault. Rather than starting a new war, an option
for the supporters of 'regime change' is to ratchet up attacks a step at
a time, until a final drive to Baghdad.
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- 'What is clear,' said one source, 'is that the US and
Britain have begun the air phase that would be required for a wider attack,
launching raids under the auspices of the existing no-fly zones. The intention
is that Iraq will have no air defence capability at all should the US and
UK decide to attack. It is a pretty strong message to Saddam.'
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- Since the Gulf war, the US has more than doubled the
rate at which it can fly and ship troops around the world; it can have
close to 100,000 troops available within weeks.
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- Despite all the talk over lack of regional allies, the
US now has the use of bases in Georgia, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which
it did not have at the time of the Gulf war, as well as huge old Soviet
airbases in Bulgaria and Romania.
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- Several thousand Special Forces troops are already in
the Caucasus and Central Asian states, while part of the 18,000-strong
82nd Airborne Division is at hand in Afghanistan.
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- Among other units, a 20,000-strong Marine Expeditionary
Force will arrive in the Gulf in October supported by 72 A-10 Air Force
planes.
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- The US Army has part of its 3rd Infantry Division in
Kuwait and weapons for at least one armoured division. B-52 bombers, carrier-based
war planes and other bombers based in Kuwait, Turkey and Qatar are also
available.
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- In Iraq, the US is said to be preparing forward airbases
in the Kurdish-controlled north.
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