- WIESBADEN (EIRNS) -- An Iraq
war would a be catastrophe for Israel, said a senior Israeli Intelligence
source who indicated that the French are against the war, despite the fact
that they have decided not to speak out publicly against Washington.
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- The problem, he added, is that the Europeans all think
that President George Bush is a madman who cannot be stopped, and they
are debating is whether the Europeans will join in this mad adventure.
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- As for Ariel Sharon and his generals, they had hoped
the war had started sooner, because the situation is now getting more complicated
for them as the days go by. Sharon had wanted the situation in Iraq to
have been decided already, so he could have pushed the Palestinians not
just into Jordan but into Iraq as well.
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- As of now, Washington has not given him a green light.
Elections could be held by the end of the year, which will complicate things
further, so Sharon wants a war as soon as possible. Although this analyst
doubted that Sharon would attack Iraq before the U.S., he would not rule
out an Israeli attack on Syria and Lebanon, in order to force the hand
of Washington.
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- He added that serious military intelligence and security
analysts, not peace movement types, have a cold-blooded assessment, that
a war with Iraq would extact a very high price from Israel, both economically
and in blood. The U.S. might be able to overthrow Saddam Hussein, but it
could take years for the region to calm down.
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- If the Intifada were to last three years, the biggest
danger would be the collapse of the Israeli economy and even the state
structures.
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- On the question of the Israeli shipment of military equipment
to Iran, which German Customs seized this week, he said he would not be
surprised if the Germans were tipped off by a faction in the Mossad. Although
he has no concrete evidence, he thinks someone might want to create an
Iran-Contra type scandal, in an effort to stop Sharon.
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