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Understanding Mugabe's Mind
By Jan Lamprecht
pbs@iafrica.com
9-3-2

Robert Mugabe's actions mystify a lot of people - even here in Africa. And yet, when I wrote 'Government by Deception' I went to great lengths to explain to people what motivates him and the other Marxists on our subcontinent and how things look from their perspective.
 
People continuously think Mugabe is a fool. He is nothing of the kind. He is much cleverer than people give him credit for. Once you understand Mugabe, you will see how truly evil this man really is. This man may kill countless numbers of black people just to get rid of a few thousand whites.
 
Let me quote from Chapter 2 of Government by Deception:
 
"A few years ago, Ian Smith, the last white ruler of Rhodesia, gave a speech in England wherein he mentioned a discussion he once had with a black politician in Mugabe's government. During the liberation war the young black recruits were taken to Cuba, Russia, China, Libya, Bulgaria or some other Russian ally for training. Part of their training required that they be politically indoctrinated. They were taught about the wonders of communism since they were going to be its missionaries. This black politician then told Smith of their first impressions of communism. He said the blacks were taken to Cuba and shown communism there. They were taken to Russia and also shown how it worked there. The blacks were not impressed. But then the Russians said to them "with this system, you can remain in power forever." This clinched the deal for them - now they were fervent advocates of the system. They could see the advantages of communism for themselves. This is what communism is really all about. It is about giving power to the very people who are least fit to have it, namely, the power hungry."
 
Their lust for power is not however the full story. You need to understand how they apply it and how they think. Then you will see that all of Mugabe's actions make perfect sense. He knows exactly what he is doing.
 
Let me start out by saying that Mugabe is not some lone crony out there just doing his wild thing with all the world against him. No, this man is a hero. He is the black leader with the most guts, and he is doing things which many admire quietly but would never dare say. Make no mistake, many black Marxists, especially those in southern Africa, admire this guy because he is not only sorting out the pesky whites, but because he has the guts to stand up to the whole world. If Mugabe was really pissing off the other black countries, they could easily destroy him.
 
 
Zimbabwe is dependant upon a link to the sea via Mozambique and South Africa. If these two countries were against him they could block his oil and imports and exports and put him out of business in about a week. The vulnerability of Zimbabwe and other landlocked countries inside Africa are well-known. There is no rail link to Namibia, nor Angola, etc. The Chinese tried to build a railway link to Tanzania many years ago, but it has always been problematic. The only truly viable rail and road links are to South Africa and Mozambique. Cut off those routes and Zimbabwe will run out of fuel in a matter of days.
 
 
 
Many years ago, even under Apartheid, many of Zimbabwe's trains were actually drawn by diesel engines from South African railways. South Africa alone, has a complete stranglehold on Zimbabwe. Just one order from Government here and the borders can be closed and Mugabe is finished. But that will never happen.
 
Militarily, Mugabe is relatively powerful in the region, but even so, South Africa and Botswana (which is well off), have a lot power. But once more, no military intervention is ever likely to occur.
 
Sam Nujoma of Namibia, wishes he could do what Mugabe is doing, and this land issue is brewing there too. The land issue is of course trickiest in South Africa.
 
Here, given enough impetus it could explode into a war. The African National Congress [ANC], here in South Africa is very quiet about Mugabe. As I write this, he is actually here in Sandton for the World Summit on Sustainable Development and he is expected to speak this week. Strangely, somebody did a "Rent-a-Crowd" exercise, and there was a huge crowd of pro-Mugabe supporters demonstrating here in South Africa!! This is quite bizarre because the many millions of ex-Zimbabwean blacks here are actually virulently anti-Mugabe.
 
Let me explain how Mugabe sees this problem. I have watched people like him much of my life and I believe I understand how they think, and why they do what they do - which will absolutely mystify most people - especially Liberals (who tend to take everything at face value).
 
Mugabe is at war. Yes, this is a fact. Most people don't realise this. Since 2000, his supporters have been wearing T-shirts inscribed with the words "The Third Chimurenga". What is a Chimurenga? It is a word meaning "war". In Zimbabwean history there were two Chimurenga's. The first was the Matabele rebellion of 1897 against the whites. The second Chimurenga was the war of the 1970's which brough Mugabe to power. Ever since 2000, Mugabe has been talking of "going back to the trenches" and "fighting Ian Smith", etc, etc. So even though the world regards Mugabe as a joke, and even though the MDC inside the country refuse to take up arms against him, he is actually at war. Hence, he is using terrorism, torture, etc in his efforts to subdue the black MDC opposition.
 
 
But this concept of war goes even further. Even in times of peace, after we whites had handed over power, there was a war - but it was a war in the minds of the black Marxists we handed over to. That war is a war to remove us whites from society and to break our power. It has been a largely unsuccessful war, but it is a "war" played by psychological means.
 
Let me explain it this way. Whites maintained economic power to a very large degree in Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa. Mugabe was content as long as the whites stayed out of politics. But then the blacks became more and more disillusioned with his rule. Remember, back in 1980, Mugabe had promised the blacks that by the year 2000, they would have FREE houses, FREE schools and FREE education. By 2000, they had none of the above and they were worse off than before. Many were saying white rule was better, and many now trusted the whites more than before.
 
Mugabe has always had a big intelligence organisation. He has spies everywhere. It is only once you live inside Zimbabwe and speak to people that you realise what tight control this man has. Mugabe claims the whites helped create the MDC [Movement for Democratic Change], and that they funded it, etc. He is partially correct. It is a black-controlled organisation. However, he is right when he says a lot of whites were involved in helping it come into existence. He knows this because of his intelligence services. So he is not dreaming. This is quite correct.
 
The shock Mugabe got when he lost the referendum of 2000 caused him to decide to destroy not only the MDC but the whites too - especially the white farmers. The white farmers employ about 400,000 blacks, and these farmers have the trust of a lot of black people. Mugabe knows these farmers said to the blacks "If you don't like Mugabe then use your vote and vote him out." Mugabe knows this. That is why he has it in for the farmers.
 
He needs to break the moral influence the farmers have over the blacks. In his mind, the blacks who are friendly to the whites are traitors. He sees them as disloyal, hence he needs to put them into re-education camps to beat or brainwash them into supporting him. That is why intimidation is rife and why he is prepared to send thugs to kill blacks. He views these blacks as being guilty of treason and hence he is using the utmost force against them even to the point of having many killed.
 
Now, let's get into the really ominous stuff. Why did Mugabe hand over 190 recently aquired farms to his political and military buddies? Well, that is because Mugabe is ensuring their loyalty. Mugabe has been rewarding politicians, journalists and military people who support him with farms he aquired. Since 2000, he has given Government and Military officials huge pay increases of up to 70% and 100%. Mugabe is making sure that all his people are loyal to him. He is laying the groundwork for something really vicious.
 
Recently, Mugabe was addressing troops who returned from the war in the DRC [formerly Zaire]. He told them that the whites were behind the MDC. He promised to reward them for their services.
 
In 2000, Mugabe ordered 21,000 AK47's from Russia on short notice and he ordered $72 million worth of equipment including tanks and anti- personnel weaponry from China. He recently ordered anti-riot equipment from Israel.
 
Recently, Mugabe reshuffled his cabinet. He fired Timothy Stamps, the Minister of Health and the only white person in his cabinet. He also fired his Minister of Finance. The Minister of Finance had not been in full support of him. He referred to his new cabinet as his "War Cabinet" - which is another indication of what is on his mind. Clearly, this was a bloodless, high-level purge of any potentially disloyal people around him as he battens down the hatches for the troubles which may lie ahead.
 
Mugabe has been working hard preparing for civil uprisings against him by the blacks. Mugabe knows that the disaffected portion of the black population are against him. He knows he cannot offer them anything constructive. Mugabe is sitting with a deilema. He knows that if he tries to fix the country properly it will require investment, entrepreneurship, etc and that will without a doubt benefit the whites who control a lot of the economy. He knows the blacks are not skilled enough, nor in a position to just replace the whites. But it is of the utmost importance for him to get rid of the whites, especially the white farmers because of their friendship with the blacks and because they can help the MDC. So he needs to destroy the power of the white farmers first, and the white and Indian businesses second. Then he has the blacks within his grip. But now the blacks won't be able to feed themselves.
 
Mugabe has probably already decided to kill all the MDC supporters. I saw a news report recently which mentioned that Mugabe might actually want to kill half of the black population to bring it down to about 6 million. 6 million blacks will be able to support themselves using traditional (wasteful) slash-and-burn methods. Mugabe will see to it that the resources of the state are used to keep as many of his supporters alive, while deliberately starving the opposition to death. It is important to understand that these black Marxists have always viewed economic power in white hands as a problem.
 
This is true even here in South Africa. In their minds, everything is a battle, and anything in our hands is something which can be used against them. Hence, they need to either take it from us, or get us to hand it over to them peacefully (Affirmative Action or Black Empowerment), or, at worst, they must destroy it so that we cannot be a threat. This is the stage where Mugabe is at. If he can't take it and use it for his own ends, then he must at least destroy it so that the whites don't have the power in their hands. He has to destroy the power of the white farmers - even if it means the death of millions of blacks. He will lie to the blacks and tell them everything will be fine and rosy so that they will go along with it. If they realise they are participating in a mass murder, or in their own suicide they won't do it. So he reassures them. Then off go the "War Vets" to destroy farms - set crops on fire, etc.
 
The only people who will survive this will be Mugabe loyalists. The real question which has been weighing on my mind for most of this year has been when will the blacks finally get tired of the hardship and rebel? Mugabe's terror and food restriction campaign seem to be designed to hurt the blacks so much that they are too terrified to actively resist him. Hence the ongoing beating, indoctrination and more recently the mass rape campaigns. The question is, will the blacks remain in a corner cowering, or will sheer desperation cause them to take the law into their own hands? I must pause on this note for a short digression.
 
Every now and again I happen on a forum where Americans and others are discussing Zimbabwe. On a number of occassions I have seen some liberal stating that Mugabe is now "as bad or worse than Ian Smith was". This is a total and utter lie of the worst degree. There is nothing in the colonial history of Rhodesia which comes even vaguely close to what is going on there now. What Mugabe is doing now is thousands of times worse than anything the whites ever did.
 
Let us return to the question of whether Mugabe can successfully keep the black population down while starving them to death. I would think that there must surely be a point where starvation and suffering will be so bad that even certain death at the hands of his troops will no longer be a deterrent. It remains to be seen if Mugabe, who is extremely well-versed in the use of terror can manage to keep the population subdued as he slowly starves them to death. I think most of us doubt he can manage it indefinitely.
 
A black political analyst in Zimbabwe said recently that he expects civil unrest by about October- November. Recently, we had news reports of British military activity in preparation for evacuating the whites. This clearly shows that analysts have done some studying and they know serious trouble is coming. Mugabe has been preparing for this for a long time.
 
Is it possible for a ruler to survive a massive popular uprising? Well, normally not, but I think Mugabe's super-ruthless tactics put him in a very powerful position where he might just pull off the impossible. He is pro- active, and he is even refusing certain grain donations like for example the "Genetically Modified Corn" from the USA. Food is his secret weapon. By cutting off food supplies he can start killing large numbers of people on short notice. If anyone still has the will to rebel, or has the strength to, he can send in the army to mow them down. Failing that, he can starve people to death selectively or at least force them to flee the country while they still have the strength. Either way, it means he stays and he wins!
 
Understand this, while Mugabe is busy killing, his neighbours will sit quietly by going "tut tut" but nobody will do anything of substance (a sure sign of their tacit approval). Both the President of South Africa, Mbeki, and Mugabe himself have said that one nation must not interfere in another's internal affairs! Cute eh? By way of a quiet tacit agreement on the part of all these African rulers, blacks in Zimbabwe may be doomed to mass murder in the coming months.
 
There is one other possibility, as these people face Mugabe's wrath on the one hand versus certain death on the other, they may flee. They may make a run for the borders, especially the South African border. It has been said for quite some time that millions might head for South Africa (where we may bear the brunt of a humanitarian crisis).
 
Mugabe's long term aim, regardless of the tactics he uses is to ensure that his political party remains in power forever! Yep, power forever is the name of the game in the politics of southern Africa - not just for Zimbabwe, but also for Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and of course... South Africa!
 
A final note, this week, on www.Etherzone.com, on tuesday, you will see an article of mine about the British SAS and paratroopers who are laying plans for the evacuation of the whites from Zimbabwe... This would have been a great time to arm the blacks to overthrow Mugabe. Too bad nobody in the Western world wants to do it. So instead, we may be treated to watching whites flee and blacks dying. Disgusting eh? Stay tuned...
 
I leave you with this final thought: The Worst thing a conservative can do, is to keep quiet. That is a recipe for certain defeat. The only hope for conservatism is for us to speak out much more loudly and to counter the many lies put out by our enemies.
 
 
Cheers, Jan....
 
My site & Book are at: www.AfricanCrisis.org
 
My weekly column is on: www.EtherZone.com on Tuesdays
 
* Here richly, with ridiculous display,
the politician's corpse was laid away.
While all of his acquaintance sneered & slanged,
I wept; for I had longed to see him hanged.
(Hilaire Belloc, French writer, 1870 - 1953)






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