- BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A year
after September 11 the United States has shifted the focus of its wrath
from Osama bin Laden and his associates to Iraq's President Saddam Hussein.
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- Despite Western media speculation, there has been no
proof of complicity or any serious accusations that Iraq had anything to
do with the attacks, but a fundamentally changed United States quickly
named Saddam as a potential threat.
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- Washington had regarded Iraq as a pariah state since
its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. After September 11 it slowly shifted its
emphasis from containing Saddam, whom it accuses of developing banned weapons,
to toppling him despite the misgivings of many of its allies.
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- U.S. President George W. Bush signalled the change in
January by declaring Iraq part of an "axis of evil". He said
later that Washington would seek a "regime change" in Baghdad
using all tools available, including the military.
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- Faced with the possibility of another war with the United
States, with this time his grip on power the target, Saddam remained defiant.
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- He prepared his military and armed the population while
declaring any attack would be doomed and attackers would be "digging
their own graves". Aides said Iraq would be Washington's "new
Vietnam".
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- But behind the rhetoric, Iraq went on a diplomatic offensive
to try to nip in the bud the prospect of war with the world's only superpower.
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- Analysts say Iraq is much weaker militarily than in the
1991 Gulf War. That destructive conflict and 12 years of sanctions mean
Saddam's military options remain limited.
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- MENDING TIES WITH OLD FOES
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- Iraq has extended a hand to former foes Kuwait and Saudi
Arabia as well as Iran, and strengthened ties with ex-rival Syria. The
overtures have won him a comprehensive Arab and Islamic opposition, at
least in public, to any U.S. military action against Iraq.
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- In July Saddam sent envoys to friendly states, including
China and Russia, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
Emissaries were also sent to his neighbours with offers of lucrative deals
that would capitalise on Iraq's oil wealth.
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- Russia is expected to sign a multi-billion dollar economic
cooperation deal with Iraq soon. Baghdad signed economic deals with Damascus
and reportedly offered northern neighbour Turkey a similar deal.
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- "The Iraqis are using all their cards to try to
avert a showdown," said a diplomat in the region.
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- "They want to avoid a confrontation and they are
using the lure of trade deals, playing up the repercussions on regional
stability and economic interests of neighbours and Europe as a means to
foil war plans," he added.
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- Mustapha Alani, a London-based Iraqi analyst, said Iraq
feels there is no possibility that the Americans will change their mind
on the need to get rid of Saddam.
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- "The Iraqis' only option is to work on the regional
level to make the American task harder," Alani told Reuters.
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- "They are trying diplomacy with Syria, Turkey and
Saudi Arabia to deny the Americans facilities and to delay an attack in
the hope that something will happen in the region."
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- In an attempt to feed on public opposition to U.S. military
action, Iraq offered more talks with the United Nations on arms inspections
and invited Congress to send a mission to Baghdad.
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- Both offers were turned down.
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- Iraq wants any return of weapons inspectors to be limited
in time and scope, arguing that the inspectors who worked in Iraq between
1991-98 had completed their mission.
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- It also wants arms inspections to be part of a package
that includes the lifting of U.N. sanctions imposed for its invasion of
Kuwait. The sanctions cannot be lifted before weapons inspectors verify
that Iraq is free of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
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- IRAQ SEEN UNLIKELY TO BACK DOWN ON INSPECTIONS
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- The question remains whether Iraq would go all the way
and allow the inspectors back in unconditionally. The United States says
such a move will not affect its "regime change" policy while
its allies view it as a key concession by Iraq.
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- "The basic Iraqi strategy is unchanged," Alani
said. "They think allowing the inspectors back will create a major
problem."
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- Iraq feels that if the inspectors are readmitted, a crisis
over their activities could soon arise which the United States would exploit
as a legitimate pretext for an attack, Alani said.
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- Iraq denies it still runs programmes for nuclear, chemical
and biological weapons. As part of a public relations campaign it took
journalists in July on rare visits to facilities near Baghdad suspected
of producing banned weapons.
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- It showed them a disused site that used to be a biological
weapons site destroyed by arms inspectors, a warehouse storing baby milk
and sugar, and a pesticide factory.
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- In the meantime, military preparations seem to be under
way in Iraq.
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- Travellers between Baghdad and Jordan report troop movements
in the desert east of the Iraqi capital. U.S. media have reported that
Saddam is redeploying anti-aircraft weapons around Baghdad.
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- U.S. and British planes patrolling "no-fly zones"
over the north and south of the country have in recent weeks intensified
bombing raids which Iraq says have killed several civilians.
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- The zones were set up after the 1991 Gulf War to protect
Kurds in the north and Shi'ite Muslims in the south.
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- Baghdad opened up training camps for Baath Party members
and volunteers, declaring that around seven million Iraqis -- out of a
population of around 22 million -- had received military training and were
ready to defend their country.
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- The volunteers took part in parades in Baghdad and other
major cities in a morale-boosting show of force.
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- (Additional reporting by Alistair Lyon)
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