- ISLAMABAD: The United States
is working on a long-term perspective plan, shaping up new political,
social
and economic benchmarks for both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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- The basic thrust of this approach, which some analysts
suggest was a changed new world order, would be on three key elements.
Sustained presence of the US and its allies in the region to foster UN-led
political developments in Kabul; investing in social, human capital and
infrastructure in Pakistan for transition of the society; and reforms
targeted
to integrate Pakistani economy into the global system.
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- Sources suggested that the United States had envisaged
its plans, backed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair in particular, and
other western countries in general. The primary goal would be formation
of a government in Kabul, comprising various Afghan factions. Zahir Shah
could be the figurehead of this set-up, without any real say in running
affairs of the country.
-
- A supra-body led by the United Nations, maybe under
Lakhdar
Brahimi, would act as the real mover and shaker. It was clear even before
the launch of US strikes in Afghanistan that this war could not be won
from the air, unless the US and allies crawl up to the terrified caves
and tunnels throughout the rugged terrains. "You cannot really do
sufficient damage from the air in a country that has been at war for ages
and ages," Donald Rumsfeld, US Defence Secretary, said last
week.
-
- Analysts believe that the US consciously delayed ground
attacks, as both the United States and the United Kingdom were having much
broader plans in their minds. US officials had suddenly realised that the
Taliban were much tougher opponents, and Donald Rumsfeld even stated that
they might not be in a position to capture bin Laden.
-
- Defence experts believe that US operation was initially
motivated by the September 11 attacks, but during the turn of the events,
largely due to failure of air strikes, the US is now eyeing a more
sustained
presence in the region. One motivating factor is huge oil and gas reserves
of the Caspian. General Aslam Beg, former chief of army staff, was quoted
by PPI as saying: "US objectives were similar to those of 1991 Gulf
war." He reckoned that the Central Asia and Caspian Sea area, which
is rich in oil and gas and mineral reserves, were the real factors.
-
- Afghanistan has some oil and gas, but the Central Asian
Republics in the north are rich with petrochemicals, which could serve
long-term strategic and economic interests of the developed world.
-
- A report stated that US Vice-President Dick Cheney, a
former chief executive of a large oil company, once indicated about the
significance of Caspian oil and gas reserves for long-term US interests.
The most practical and economically viable route of transporting this oil
and gas goes through Afghanistan, to countries like Pakistan and India,
which have enormous demand. Such a happening could have multiple long-term
geo-strategic and global advantages for the United States. It would
frustrate
Iran's ambitious plans to supply gas to India, and would inflict heavy
economic losses to Arab states, which earn billions of dollar in the shape
of oil exports, hence enjoy immense clout over many countries of the
region,
including Pakistan. This diversification of energy supplies would not only
adversely affect oil producing Arab nations, but would also help the US
and western countries acquire major stakes in Afghanistan, Central Asia
and Pakistan, leaving out both Russia and China in the long run. Unocal,
a leading US company, once was eyeing to muster support of the Taliban
regime in 1996, to lay a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, through
Afghanistan
and into Pakistan, and onward to India. Such companies would again by in
the run, if the US succeeds in achieving its objectives in the
future.
-
- Central Asia would get the wheels of transportation,
Afghans the royalty, Pakistan and India the energy, and US companies the
real business. Colin Powell, US Secretary of State, had already said that
there would be no need of a Marshal Plan for Afghanistan. "It has
potentials of gas and oil, and a modest-enough investment would suffice
the need of its development," he stated.
-
- However, the World Bank also announced on Friday to help
rebuild Afghanistan, as it did for Bosnia and East Timor. The plans could
be ready as early as mid-November. Long-term US presence in the region
would also serve its other strategic goals, vis-a-vis China. "This
is going to be a very, very long campaign," said General Richard B
Myers, Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff, on Monday.
-
- As far as Pakistan was concerned, the United States may
not like to abandon it again after the war, as it did in 1989. This time
around Pakistan could serve as a major conduit for trade and business with
the Central Asians. Some reports already indicated US interests in the
Gwadar port, which can serve as a regional hub for trade to/from ports
of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Oman, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, and
landlocked countries like Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. US naval
ships are stationed just across the Mekran coast in the Arabian Sea, near
Gwadar for the last three weeks.
-
- Pakistan had already signed an MOU for the development
of this port. Saudi Investment Fund is also a potential partner in this
ambitious project. China has its own interests, which motivated it foster
Shanghai-5 groups with the Central Asian stated. These states, bordering
Xinjiang province, could stretch Chinese interests, but it would need at
least not an American presence in neighbouring Afghanistan.
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- Regarding economic gains for Pakistan, western diplomats
have hinted at long-term debt rescheduling benefits under the
stock-of-the-debt
operation, which would enable the authorities to treat entire stock of
$12 billion official bilateral debt at the Paris Club. In addition, three
years IMF facility of $1.5-2 billion, and $700 million per annum from the
World Bank and Asian Development Bank in the shape of new loans would help
recede external sector worries of the economy during next three years.
Sources indicated that on long-term basis, the US was working on a plan
of $15 billion for 2001-10 to help uplift Pakistani economy through debt
relief, new financing through multilateral, trade benefits and new investment, particularly in the education sector.
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- The government in return has to show commitment to tow
US foreign policy interest, allowing gradual transformation of the society
to a more moderate level by overhauling madaris dominated education system,
and integrating its economy with the global economy, following aggressive
liberalisation programmes, allowing greater role to the private sector.
Pakistan had shown some indication that it was inclined to this western
plan, when President General Pervez Musharraf supported the idea of a
neutral
zone in Kabul. "And my own personal view - and I present it as a
personal
view - is that there will probably be a requirement for some kind of UN
presence, significant presence, in Kabul in a governmental-administrative
capacity to help the new government get started, because they will be
coming
in without any existing institutions in place, without any real experience
in government. And the UN has performed this role successfully in other
places, not that those places are perfect models for what we may need in
Afghanistan, but the UN experience in East Timor, in Cambodia, suggests
that they do have a body of experience that's relevant to this kind of
challenge," said Powell on Wednesday in International Relations
Committee.
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- UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan had already thrown his
weight behind this move, asking special UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to further
crystallize this plan with Islamabad and Tehran. As far as Iran was
concerned,
a flurry of diplomatic activity last week was seen to convince Iranian
leadership to support UN-led move, instead of a narrow foreign policy goal
of supporting Shia Tajik and Uzbek groups of Northern Alliance. Special
French envoy Pierre Lafrance, Italian Foreign Minister Renato Ruggiero,
British adviser Robert Cooper, and German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer
held threadbare discussions Kharazi on the subject.
-
- Similar discussions had also been reported between
Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov and the
western diplomats. German Foreign Minister also talked to Prince Saud Al
Faisal, Saudi Foreign Minister, before his Islamabad visit, German
Chancellor
is expected to take this process further in his talks with President
Musharraf.
Brahimi is expected in Tehran and Islamabad at the end of the week to forge
ahead with this US-Western plan before the winter sets in. However, It
was not immediately clear how badly the execution of Abdul Haq, an Afghan
warrior trying to trigger defections in Mulla Omar's Pashtun camp, would
affect these ambitious goals. Toppling the Taliban remain the first
obstacle,
which could not be displaced by even an inch so far.
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