- Back in September 2007, I wrote an article for Antiwar.com
called "What World War III May Look Like." The article, which
presumed that an incident involving U.S. troops on the border between Iraq
and Iran could easily escalate into what would eventually become a global
conflict, was widely replayed in the alternative media and even in the mainstream.
Well, I am pleased to report that no such war has yet started, though
there has been a disturbing expansion of U.S. military activity through
the deployment of drones to hit targets in assorted countries without having
to worry about American casualties or niceties like declarations of war.
Other geopolitical elements that figured in my 2007 analysis have also
changed, so I believe that the time has come for an update.
-
- Iran is clearly the target of choice, just as it was
in 2007. Despite President Barack Obama's assertion that he would open
up avenues to talk to the Iranians, he has failed to do so, he has rejected
Iranian initiatives to start a dialogue, and he is showing every sign of
unwillingness to negotiate on any level. Congress has even moved to block
any contact between American and Iranian diplomats. The sanctions
that recently took effect against the Iranian banking system can be construed
as an act of war, particularly as Iran has not provided any casus
belli. Further sanctions that will restrict energy imports are impending
and will bring the country's economy to a halt. There are already signs
that the Iranian government feels itself compelled to demonstrate to its
people that it is doing something about the situation. That "something"
might well be a confrontation with the U.S. Navy that will have
unfortunate results. In light of all that, it might be useful to imagine
just how war with Iran could play out if the Iranians don't roll over and
surrender at the first whiff of grapeshot.
-
- It might start with a minor incident, possibly involving
an Iranian armed small craft manned by the Revolutionary Guard. Though
the Strait of Hormuz is generally considered an international waterway,
the Iranians claim that half of the strait is within their territorial
waters. Tehran, in response to intensified sanctions, declares that it
can determine who can use the strait and says that it will take steps to
keep American warships from entering. The frigate USS Ingraham, patrolling
off of Bushehr, is confronted by the small craft and ordered to heave to,
an order it rejects. The Iranian commander, ignoring instructions to back
off when confronted directly by the U.S. Navy, opens fire with rocket-propelled
grenades. The frigate's Phalanx rapid-fire battery immediately responds
by blasting the Iranian boat, killing the entire Revolutionary Guard crew,
but two American sailors are also killed in the exchange and four are wounded.
-
- Fighters from the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis are
immediately launched under standing orders, and they devastate the naval
base that the Iranian boat departed from. President Obama holds a press
conference and calls the incident an act of war and vows to do everything
necessary to support U.S. forces in the region, but he stops short of a
commitment to stage a full-scale attack on Iran. A hastily called meeting
of the U.N. Security Council results in a 171 vote urging the United
States to exercise restraint, with only Washington voting "no."
In the General Assembly, only the United States, Israel, Micronesia, and
Costa Rica support possible military action.
-
- The United States is effectively alone, but Israel takes
advantage of the growing war fervor in the United States to launch an attack
against Iranian nuclear facilities. The recently completed nuclear reactor
at Bushehr is destroyed, killing 13 Russian technicians working on the
site, and the aboveground buildings at the Natanz nuclear research facility
are leveled. Russian-supplied Iranian air defenses shoot down six Israeli
aircraft. Washington receives no prior warning of the Israeli attack, though
it does pick up the signal traffic that precedes it and knows something
is coming. It makes no effort to stop the Israelis as they fly over undefended
Iraqi airspace.
-
- Congress and the media rally behind the Israelis and
demand war. A bill in the House of Representatives calling on the White
House to take military action in support of Israel passes 4314. A
similar bill in the Senate receives only two nays. President Obama hesitates
but then approves a limited offensive, directed against Iran's military,
its nuclear sites, and, most particularly, its Revolutionary Guard installations.
In the first few days, overwhelming American air and naval superiority
destroys Iran's principal air, naval, and army bases. Iranian Revolutionary
Guard facilities are obliterated, as are the known Iranian nuclear research
and development sites. The limited offensive soon becomes anything but
that, with strategic bombers dropping 30,000-pound Big BLU bunker-buster
bombs to strike underground labs and processing centers. Population centers
are avoided, though smart weapons are used to destroy communications centers
and command and control facilities. There are nevertheless large numbers
of civilian casualties as many of the targeted nuclear sites are close
to or within cities and large towns. Infrastructure is also hit, particularly
bridges, roads, and power-generation stations close to known nuclear research
centers and military sites.
-
- There is a pause in the attacks, and Iran strikes back.
With nearly 10 years to prepare, Tehran has successfully hidden and hardened
many of its military and nuclear facilities, a large percentage of which
are undamaged. The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis operating
in the Gulf of Oman is hit by a lucky strike by a Chinese Silkworm cruise
missile that comes in low and successfully evades countermeasures. The Stennisretires
to port in Bahrain. Three other support vessels are also hit and severely
damaged when they are attacked by waves of small craft manned by suicidal
Revolutionary Guards, not unlike the kamikaze attacks in the Second World
War. The Iranian attackers are annihilated, but the Pentagon refuses to
say how many American sailors have been killed in the exchange.
-
- Pro-Iranian riots break out in Beirut. In the south of
Lebanon, Hezbollah fires salvos of rockets into Israel, striking Tel Aviv
and killing several hundred Israelis. Israel responds by bombing Lebanon
and Syria, which it blames for supporting the attacks. Upgraded Iranian
Shahab-3 missiles also strike Israel, killing more civilians. The Israeli
Defense Forces are fully mobilized, and troops are sent to the northern
border. Syria and Lebanon also mobilize their forces. Rioters in Baghdad
attack the American embassy, which demands that the Iraqi government "do
something" to protect it, but Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki shrugs
and says that the situation is out of his control. Large public demonstrations
demand that Iraq support Iran in a fraternal struggle against the United
States.
-
- Shi'ites sympathetic to Iran sabotage Saudi Arabian eastern
oil fields. Hundreds of alleged saboteurs are shot dead by Saudi security
forces. An oil tanker out of Kuwait is hit by a Silkworm and runs aground
to keep from sinking. Another hits a mine. Insurers at Lloyd's of London
refuse to cover any tankers transiting the Persian Gulf, claiming that
damage incurred during a state of war is not covered by the policies. Oil
shipments from the region, one quarter of the world's supply, stop completely,
and oil goes up to $300 a barrel. Wall Street suffers its biggest loss
in 20 years, with the Dow Jones index plummeting more than 900 points.
-
- The United States offers Iran a cease-fire, which Tehran
rejects. Two days later, President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan is assassinated
by a Shi'ite bodyguard under orders from Tehran. Pakistan declares that
it is neutral in the conflict and orders the U.S. embassy to reduce its
staff by 50%, including the CIA station chief and his deputy. Order breaks
down in both countries, and the Pakistani army declares a state of emergency,
closing the border with Afghanistan. NATO calls an emergency meeting and
decides to begin the evacuation by air of the multinational force trapped
in Afghanistan, leaving many weapons and heavy equipment behind.
-
- In the power vacuum, NATO troops withdraw to their bases
while Taliban-backed militias take over much of Kabul and Kandahar. Afghanistan's
Mazar-i-Sharif, which is largely Shi'ite, declares itself a part of Iran.
The government resigns in Beirut, and Hezbollah forms a new one. A salvo
of Iranian Silkworm missiles sets the Saudi Arabian eastern oil fields
ablaze. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates send an urgent diplomatic
message to Tehran declaring that they will be "neutral" in the
fighting and will not assist the United States in any way. Kuwait sends
the same message, while Egyptian volunteers gather along the border with
Israel in Sinai, demanding that Cairo take steps in support of their Arab
brothers in Lebanon. Kuwait refuses to allow the United States to use its
men and supplies at Camp Doha against Iran. In Bahrain, rampaging Shi'ite
crowds depose Sheikh Khalifa al-Khalifa and set up an Islamic Republic,
forcing the U.S. Fifth Fleet to abandon its only secure base in the region.
The Dow Jones index loses another 1,000 points.
-
- The United States attempts to get China and Russia to
mediate with Iran to end the fighting, but they refuse to do Washington
any favors, noting that they had opposed the attack in the first place
and also citing their countrymen killed in the U.S. attacks. Suicide bombers
attack in London, Washington, New York, and Los Angeles. The attacks are
poorly planned and inflict only a few casualties, but panic sets in and
the public demands that the respective governments do something. The United
States tells the Iranian government that unless resistance ceases, nuclear
weapons will be used on select targets. India and Pakistan are alarmed
by the U.S. threat and put their own nuclear forces on high alert, as does
Israel. Russia and China also increase their readiness levels to respond
to the crisis.
-
- Iran refuses to concede defeat, and the Iranian people
rally around the government. The U.S. public is clamoring for action. Oil
prices continue to surge, and the long-term viability of petroleum supplies
is in question as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be closed. Another
U.S. ship is badly damaged by suicide attackers in the Persian Gulf. American
embassies throughout the region are attacked. Anti-American rioting takes
place in Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Mindanao, and in Dhaka. The United States
consulate general in Karachi, Pakistan, is sacked and burned. Forty Americans
die along with scores of Pakistanis when the Marine guards open fire.
-
- There are frequent terrorism scares in a number of American
cities, which are under red-alert security lockdown, though there are no
new attacks. Domestic air travel declines by more than 50%. As a preventive
measure, there are mass arrests of American Muslim leaders. Some antiwar
activists are detained at military prisons, including Guantanamo, under
the provisions of the Military Commissions Act and the National Defense
Authorization Act of 2012. Israel continues to be bombarded from inside
Lebanon. Its air attacks inflict massive damage on civilians but are unsuccessful
in stopping the rockets. Its government falls and is replaced by a hard-right
regime headed by former Foreign Secretary Avigdor Lieberman. Rioting rocks
the West Bank and Gaza, forcing Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to
resign and flee to Paris. Hamas forms a provisional government. India threatens
to attack Pakistan if there is any question about the security of Islamabad's
nuclear arsenal.
-
- The United States uses a neutron-type bomb against the
main Iranian nuclear research center at Natanz, which both Washington and
Israel had already bombed conventionally and destroyed. It vows to bomb
again if Iran continues to resist. Iran is defiant and fires another wave
of Silkworms at U.S. ships, hitting one. Russia and China place their nuclear
forces on high alert. Pakistani militants assume control of the government,
aided by radical elements in the army and the intelligence service. India
launches a preemptive strike against the main Pakistani nuclear centers
at Wah and Multan, where the country's arsenal is believed to be concentrated.
Pakistan has some of its nukes moving around on trucks to avoid such a
scenario, however, and is able to strike back by bombing New Delhi.
-
- A minor engagement between American and Iranian forces
in the Persian Gulf has ignited World War III.
http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2012/01/11/what-war-with-iran-might-look-like/
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