- On April 10, Ollanta Humala received most support among
five presidential candidates, but not a majority. Eliminated were former
neoliberal President Alejandro Toledo, his former economic minister and
Lima mayor Luis Castaneda Lossio, and former Prime Minister Pedro Pablo
- Discredited and now imprisoned former President Alberto
Fujimori's daughter Keiko proceeded to a runoff with him.
- On June 6, New York Times writer Simon Romero headlined,
"Ex-Officer Set to Win Narrow Victory in Peru," saying:
- Incomplete returns show him heading for victory, rebuking
Peru's "economic model that has driven (its) robust growth, (but left)
millions of (its) citizens....mired in poverty...."
- Washington Post writer Juan Forero called it an "unhappy
choice," saying winner Humala openly admires "Venezuela's firebrand
president, Hugo Chavez," then quoted Inter-American Dialogue head
Michael Shifter claiming neither candidate is "committed to democracy."
- Reuters said "(l)eftwing former army (Lt. Col.)
Ollanta Humala claimed victory" in Sunday's elections, "strik(ing)
a conciliatory tone as investors and the opposition worry he will ruin
a long economic boom."
- Wall Street Journal writer Matt Moffett said his win
"rais(es) a cloud of uncertainty over what has been one of the world's
most dynamic economies" by depriving Peru's poor for its rich as well
as Western business interests.
- Succeeding incumbent Alan Garcia, Xinhua's English language
site said independent election monitors declared Humala the winner, getting
over a 51% majority with more than 90% of ballots counted. Exit polls,
in fact, had him winning with over 52%.
- On July 28, he'll be inaugurated for a five-year term
until 2016. How center-left he'll govern is very much in doubt given the
record of others in the region, including Brazil's Lula da Silva, Bolivia's
Evo Morales, and others pursuing corporate friendly agendas.
- In fact, in his book "Rulers and Ruled in the US
Empire," James Petras said former unionist leader Lula actually extended
his predecessor's privatizations and restrictive budget policies.
- Instead of change, he delivered betrayal. Even before
elected, he signed a letter of understanding with the IMF, promising business
as usual by agreeing to full debt service, as well as pro-business neoliberal
- Then as president, he cut public employee pensions 30%.
His agrarian policy subsidized agribusiness. He didn't redistribute land
to Brazil's Landless Workers Movement (MST) as promised and cut spending
for health and education. He also appointed right-wing bankers and other
corporate executives to key posts, including economic and financial ones.
As a result, Petras said he fit "the profile of a right-wing neoliberal
politician," not a populist one.
- Morales also painfully disappointed by maintaining neoliberal
fiscal austerity, economic stability, and other pro-corporate policies.
Other regional leaders followed similar agendas, including Ecuador's Correa
and Argentina's Nestor Kirchner, failing to deliver real change.
- So why expect Humala to govern more like Chavez, combining
participatory social democracy with business friendly policies. After July,
Peruvians will know for sure what his call for "change" and "order"
means as president, especially after he models himself after Lula, suggesting
business as usual in office, not a radical shift left.
- Representing the Gana Peru nationalist party, he appealed
to the country's poor, harmed by years of neoliberal harshness. In contrast,
his opponent, Keiko Fujimori, openly endorsed free market privatizations,
deregulation, and eliminating labor rights to attract foreign investment,
much like her father in the 1990s.
- So far, Peruvians believe Humala represents more populist
interests than continuity. They may be very disappointed despite promises
to increase taxes and royalties on mining companies to fund social programs,
as well as stronger labor rights in a nation having few.
- Reuters, in fact, said he's made a concerted effort to
"calm foreign investors," saying he'll honor the "independence
of the central bank and the legal securiy of contracts signed with private
- His Gana Peru Party, in fact, advocates joint state,
domestic/foreign investment partnerships, Peruvians having majority control.
As a result, he promised changes in Peru's 1993 Constitution and reviews
of previously negotiated trade agreements, whether or not, he'll defy Western
interests by softening agreed on provisions. In fact, he said:
- "From the moment these were signed, they cannot
be unilaterally questioned or revised, except when specific clauses allowed
for in (them) or when flagrant illegality preceded (their) adoption."
- Political rhetoric aside, expect a Humala administration
to continue most past policies poor Peruvians want changed. Not likely
short of massive grassroots pressure forcing him. Even that won't likely
work given entrenched interests enforcing status quo harshness backed by
Wall Street and Washington, the force targeting all leaders out of step
with their agenda.
- A Final Comment
- A mid-day June 6 Reuters report headlined, "Left-winger
Humala wins Peru election, markets plunge," saying:
- Humala's vow to share Peru's wealth with its poor sent
"financial markets plummet(ing) on fears (he'll) ruin the economy."
- Widening his slim lead, it's expected to increase as
poor rural returns come in, areas where he's strongest. As a result, "Peru's
stock market sank about 11 percent, while the sol currency fell 1.5 percent,"
prompting central bank efforts to curb it.
- Addressing thousands of cheering supporters, Humala said
he'll "install a government of national unity," adding that he
wants "economic growth with social inclusion (to) build a more just
Peru for everybody."
- Calming investors, Humala's top economic advisor and
possible new finance minister, Kurt Burneo, warned speculators betting
against Peru would get burned, saying:
- "Those speculating now are simply going to lose
their money because everything is very solid," suggesting little change
from current policies.
- In fact, Humala's likely central bank head, Felix Jimenez,
- "Our economic proposals are totally sensible: to
maintain macroeconomic equilibrium, consolidate growth and create conditions
for private domestic and foreign investment growth."
- If both men run Peru's economy, expect today's market
plunge to be a buying opportunity for savvy investors seeing a chance for
quick profits, not a red flag to shift funds elsewhere.
- Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at
email@example.com. Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com
and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the
Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays
at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs
are archived for easy listening.