- What began in January escalated to an uprising in March.
Ever since, it's been violent, disruptive and widespread, killing hundreds,
and injuring many more.
-
- The stakes are high. The entire region is affected. It's
very similar to what began in Libya, pitting imperial powers against ruling
governments for destabilization and control.
-
- In Libya, it's by war for regime change, colonization
and plunder. In Syria, it's to establish another client state, no matter
who heads it. More on that below.
-
- On August 3, Joshua Landis' Syria Comment site (joshualandis.com)
headlined, "The Armed Gangs Controversy," saying:
-
- Some analysts say "Syrian soldiers are killing fellow
soldiers (for disobeying orders), not opposition elements." In fact,
nothing proves it. "Most evidence supports government statements that
armed opposition elements (are) shooting security personnel."
-
- In April in Banyas, the controversy first surfaced when
nine soldiers were killed outside the city. Western media reports about
fellow soldiers shooting them were false. Col. Uday Ahmad, brother-in-law
of one of the dead, there at the time, said:
-
- "(T)wo military trucks were ambushed as they crossed
a highway bridge by well armed men," hiding on the ground and on rooftops.
"They raked the two trucks with automatic fire, killing nine. The
incident had nothing to do with soldiers refusing orders."
-
- Other shooting reports were similar, involving armed
militants, non-Syrian insurgents, responsible for much killing, Western
media falsely blaming Syria's military and police. At the same time, most
opposition forces are nonviolent, caught between hostile sides.
-
- In Hama, for example, independent video footage contradicts
major media reports. It shows opposition elements throwing bodies of soldiers
into the Asi River, north of the city.
-
- In fact, a CNN Arwa Damon/Nada Husseini August 2 report
(a notable major media exception, perhaps airing only on CNN International)
said:
-
- "One prominent anti-government activist (unnamed
for reasons of safety) told CNN the state TV account was correct. The bodies
are those of Syrian secret police killed by Syrian fighters from Iraq who
have joined the anti-government fight," based on information gotten
"from an extensive network of informants."
-
- Violent insurgents aren't part of the protest movement.
They're destabilizing interventionist forces from outside, responsible
for lots of killing.
-
- Of course, violence begets more of it. Opposition elements
incite it. Government forces respond, and nonviolent civilians are caught
in the crossfire.
-
- Landis believes the regime is resilient and will keep
fighting, its military having "many advantage(s) over the fragmented
opposition." It's "unlikely" to collapse or "fade away."
Fighting will continue until one side or the other prevails. Had the Assad
government "been willing to hand over power peacefully or establish
some sort of constitutional convention, it would have done so already."
-
- The longer fighting continues, the worse off Syrians
will be. Many already face economic hardships, exacerbated by months of
conflict, disrupting their lives, besides the human toll.
-
- Landis thinks "(t)he potential for (continued) violence
and lawlessness is large. Most worrying is the lack of leadership among
opposition forces." More on that below.
-
- Syrian authorities believe they're in control as long
as Damascus and Aleppo, its two main cities, are mostly quiet.
-
- Business elites in both cities are pro-regime, fearing
much to lose if it's ousted. Sami Moubayed, Damascus-based Forward Magazine
editor-in-chief in an August 2 Gulf News article, said:
-
- "(B)oth cities can make or break any political movement
- but rarely have they been part of anything that threatens stability and
their commercial interests."
-
- At the same time, the "silence of both cities....won't
last for too long" for three reasons:
-
- (1) "Unemployment:" If it rises too high, expect
trouble. Many young people already are jobless. If many others join them
for a protracted period, they'll be impoverished and angry.
-
- (2) "Lack of community leaders:" Previous ones
"pacif(ied)" angry Damascus residents. No one with similar influence
is present in either city because "Baathists (haven't let) independent
leaders....emerge."
-
- (3) "Demographics:" Both cities are "melting
pots," containing elements likely to demonstrate if things break down,
because they don't take orders from business leaders.
-
- On August 5, Landis headlined, "Should the US Hasten
Assad's Downfall Despite Syria's Absence of Opposition Leaders?" saying:
-
- Opposition forces are leaderless. As a result, "many
US policy makers (are) scared. They don't want" the regime ousted
until "some structure or leadership (can) take its place."
-
- A power vacuum could produce chaos, an "Iraq (or
Afghanistan) redux." Syrian businessmen won't support political change
without a safe alternative. They're "not suicidal. They fear having
their property expropriated twice in 50 years." Moreover, they've
been "inextricably linked" to the regime for decades.
-
- By "fast forward(ing)" change, Washington might
"creat(e) a Frankenstein....caus(ing) more destruction and death,
not less."
-
- According to Syrian human rights activist/former judge/outspoken
Assad regime critic, Haytham al-Maleh:
-
- "If we want to own Syria after the revolution, we
must win this struggle on our own," not by foreign intervention, especially
imperial powers with their own agenda.
-
- Destabilization and Possible Military Intervention
-
- On the Progressive Radio News Hour, Mahdi Nazemroaya
said outside elements are destabilizing Syria, much like how the Libyan
uprising began. Where it leads bears close watching.
-
- On Russia Today (RT.com), Michel Chossudovsky covered
similar ground and more.
-
- "This is not a peaceful protest movement,"
he said. "The model of insurrection (in Hama) is very similar to what
happened in Daraa at the outset of these so-called protest movements."
-
- Hama is a Muslim Brotherhood stronghold. "This essentially
is a confrontation between the government and Muslim Brotherhood."
It doesn't reflect Syrian public opinion, "committed to a secular
Muslim society."
-
- In fact, "Assad has very strong popular support,"
as demonstrated by large pro-government rallies. Against them are Islamists
"supported by outside forces. We know that's the case," including
insurgents from Iraq, Turkey and Jordan.
-
- Major media reports falsify what's happening, presenting
one-sided biased accounts. AFP fabricated news about Hama, claiming 500,000
anti-government protesters turned out. "In fact, it wasn't 500,000.
It was 10,000."
-
- Moreover, when mass pro-Assad (or pro-Gaddafi) rallies
occur, they're either downplayed or ignored.
-
- In addition, major media reports suppress information
about "armed gunmen shooting at police." Even the Israeli press
confirmed it, while US and other Western accounts conceal what's going
on - "a NATO/US military alliance committing crimes (against) humanity,"
targeting Syrian civilians as in Libya.
-
- If Western forces intervene militarily, "then we
are in for an extended war that goes from the Mediterranean to the Chinese
border." As a result, a general war may result with potentially "devastating
consequences."
-
- On August 5, RIA Novosti headlined, "NATO plans
campaign in Syria, tightens noose around Iran - Rogozin," saying:
-
- "NATO is planning a military campaign against Syria
to help overthrow the (Assad regime) with a long-reaching goal of preparing
a beachhead for an attack on Iran, Russia's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin
said."
-
- By condemning ongoing violence in Syria, the Security
Council suggested military intervention may follow. "It could be a
logical conclusion of (Western) military and propaganda operations....against
North Africa," Rogozin told Izvestia Friday, saying targeted regimes
have opposing views to Western ones.
-
- He also said imperial intervention in Syria and Yemen
may precede attacking Iran.
-
- "The noose around Iran is tightening," he believes.
"Military planning against Iran is underway. And we are certainly
concerned about an escalation of a large-scale war in this huge region."
-
- In fact, military plans for wars take months to prepare.
America has longstanding ones, updated as needed, against a number of targeted
nations, including Iran. It also has extensive naval and other forces in
the region.
-
- Plans are one thing, however, waging wars another. Many
sit on shelves unimplemented, gathering dust. For years, reports circulated
about potential imminent attacks on Iran, some accompanied by powerful
US naval forces deployed to the region. Nonetheless, nothing happened.
-
- Iran is militarily strong, able to retaliate forcefully
against Israel and American forces in Iraq. As a result, attacking it could
prove catastrophic, not least because how disruptive it would be to regional
oil supplies and prices.
-
- Blocking the Hormuz Straits alone would prevent around
15 - 17 millions of barrels from passing through daily on average. Attacking
Western Gulf oil production, processing and transportation facilities would
make things much worse, besides risking the possibility of general war.
-
- Some analysts, in fact, believe doing so could become
WW III if Russia and China intervene to protect their own interests.
-
- For over three decades, US/Iranian relations have been
strained, but no wars resulted. Perhaps it's because once something major
begins, the potential consequences may be too great to risk.
-
- In other words, the risk/reward ratio may show odds too
precarious even for go-for-broke imperial powers to chance. What's ahead
this time? In the fullness of time, we'll know, with an important wild
card to keep in mind.
-
- With America's economy cratering ahead of its 2012 presidential
and congressional elections, a major false flag attack, like 9/11, may
be used to incite fear, divert attention from economic woes, and enlist
public support for more war besides others now ongoing.
-
- It's the oldest trick in the book, successful virtually
every time tried, the Obama administration's ace in the hole perhaps to
be played strategically for assured reelection, it hopes.
-
- As a result, anything ahead is possible to solidify power,
even risked global war with potentially catastrophic consequences. Trends
analyst Gerald Celente calls Washington politicians "inepts and incompetents."
-
- With these types in charge, future possibilities are
frightening, especially since the business of America is war and grand
theft.
-
- As a result, be wary, worried, and ready to react decisively
- to the streets, if necessary, to fight the beast or be devoured by it.
No other choice is possible.
-
- Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at
lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.
-
- Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and
listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive
Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central
time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy
listening.
-
- http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/.
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