- With America's worst budget crisis per capita, Illinois
reflects the crushing nationwide burden facing most states. As a result
since 2008, they raised taxes, made big cuts in health care (including
Medicaid), education and other social services. They also laid off thousands
of state workers, cut pay and benefits for others, and plan more of the
same going forward.
-
- Collectively, in FY 2011, state governments face about
a $140 billion deficit, besides major shortfalls in large and small cities.
In fact, according to Nick Johnson of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities,
this year "will actually be the most difficult budget year for states
ever," and 2012 may be as or more challenging.
-
- Moreover, unlike 2010, little or no federal aid is planned
with Washington in discretionary spending austerity mode. It means states
and working Americans will largely be on their own to cope.
-
- On January 5, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's State of the
State address suggests what's coming nationwide. Facing a projected $9
billion deficit, he outlined proposed draconian cuts in education, health
care, and state payrolls, including pay and benefits, saying "New
York spends too much money." So to curb it, he also wants a 20% reduction
in state agencies, authorities and commissions, while pledging to keep
New York "business friendly," meaning workers will feel pain,
not fat cats.
-
- Accordingly, he announced no tax increase for the wealthy
and will let a so-called temporary "millionaire's tax" surcharge
on $200,000 a year or more earners expire, depriving the state of $1 billion
annually.
-
- Illinois in Deep Crisis
-
- The University of Illinois' Institute of Government &
Public Affairs (IGPA) headlined a recent report, "Illinois Budget
Woes: Titanic and Sinking," stating:
-
- State problems aren't new, but lawmakers haven't "developed
a strategy for resolving the situation and it is rapidly growing worse."
Moreover, IGPA analysts say:
-
- "the state's fiscal disaster is even worse than
commonly believed, will take years or even decades to remedy and can be
fixed only by large and fundamental changes in both spending and tax policies...."
-
- With spending exceeding revenues, and obligations not
postponed, unpaid bills are growing "at a frightening rate. For instance,
IGPA's Fiscal Futures Model indicates (they) could reach $40 billion by
July 1, 2013, with an associated delay in paying those bills of more than
five years."
-
- Besides its $13 billion deficit and $6 billion in unpaid
bills, its pension fund is about $130 billion in the red - a red flag that
state workers may lose out altogether, wiping out their promised retirement
savings. Overall, achieving a balanced 2012 budget requires one or a combination
of three alternatives, including:
-
- -- enormous increases in personal and corporate taxes
to 7.1% and 11.3% respectively;
-
- -- raising the current 6.25% sales tax to 13.5%, and/or
-
- -- cutting spending across the board by 26%, exclusive
of debt service, pensions and transportation.
-
- Moreover, IGPA concludes that state fiscal problems "are
so enormous that no single tactic will be enough to balance the budget....We
start so out of balance that even an absolute freeze on all spending will
not achieve balance (over) a 10-year time horizon. Bringing Illinois to
fiscal solvency will require state government to implement multiple and
massive policy changes. If nothing is done soon, (Illinois) faces a very
bleak future."
-
- In fact, for working households, it already does, as
they may feel pain for decades, including higher (private and public) unemployment
or underemployment because of disastrous federal and state policies.
-
- Illinois State Legislature Acts
-
- On January 12, Chicago Tribune writers Ray Long and Monique
Garcia headlined, "(Gov.) Quinn congratulated Democrats on income
tax increase," saying:
-
- With no Republican support, House and Senate Democrats
(on the last legislative day before newly elected lawmakers take over)
passed a major income tax increase, "rais(ing) the personal (rate)
by 67 percent and the business (rate) by 46 percent."
-
- As a result, the personal tax rate will rise from 3%
to 5%, then drop to 3.75% in 2015 and 3.25% in 2025 unless budget crisis
remains dire enough to require further tax increases, not cuts, a distinct
possibility.
-
- Corporate rates will rise from 4.8% to 7% until 2015,
then drop to 5.25% in 2015 and 4.8% in 2025, depending on budget priorities
and whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge.
-
- Tax changes were effective retroactively to January 1
and will raise an estimated $6.5 billion in 12 months, way short of what's
needed, and estimates have a way of not being met. In addition, the new
law plans:
-
- "to limit spending in each of the next four budget
years - $36.8 billion in FY 2012, $37.5 billion in FY 2013, $38.3 billion
in 2014 and $39 billion in 2015. The state's auditor general would determine
if lawmakers and the governor exceed those spending limits. (If so), the
higher income tax rates would revert to current levels."
-
- Running for reelection, Quinn campaigned on a smaller
income tax increase - a promise made and broken the way Washington does
it repeatedly, including Obama who broke every major promise he made, literally
thumbing his nose at constituents by governing irresponsibly. Illinois
is run the same way under Democrats or Republicans, why the state is virtually
insolvent.
-
- In January 2010, Crain's Chicago Business reported:
-
- "Illinois appears to meet classic definitions of
insolvency: Its liabilities far exceed its assets, and it's not generating
enough cash to pay its bills."
-
- According to IGPA senior fellow Jim Nowlan, Illinois
is "close to de facto bankruptcy, if not de jure bankruptcy."
-
- Laurence Msall, Civic Federation president, a Chicago
fiscal watchdog agreed, saying:
-
- "We would like all the stakeholders of Illinois
to recognize how close the state is to bankruptcy or insolvency."
-
- According to legal experts, federal bankruptcy code protections
apply only to cities and counties, not states. Nonetheless, even new tax
revenues may not satisfy obligations, making some form of fiscal collapse
inevitable. Moreover, as unpaid bills accumulate, venders may stop dealing
with the state and investors won't buy Illinois bonds.
-
- According to University of Illinois/Chicago Economics
Professor David Merriman,:
-
- "The crisis will come when you see state institutions
shutting down because they can't pay their employees" or bills.
-
- Rising pension payments are another factor pushing Illinois
over the edge. One report warned that:
-
- "the radical cost-cutting and huge tax increases
necessary to pay all (its) deferred costs from the past would become so
large that many businesses and individuals would be driven out of Illinois,
thereby magnifying the vicious cycle of contracting state services, increasing
taxes, and loss of the state's tax base."
-
- Although Illinois' Constitution protects vested pension
benefits, paying them depends on resources to do it. According to the Civic
Federation:
-
- Evidence suggests "that a judge could find the state
insolvent. (If so) under the classical cash-flow definition of insolvency,
which is 'the inability to pay debts as they come due,' it is not only
the pension rights of non-vested employees that will be in jeopardy. All
the obligations of the state, whether vested or not, will be competing
for funding with the other essential responsibilities of state government.
Even vested pension rights are jeopardized when a government is (declared)
insolvent."
-
- Outlook in 2011
-
- Looking ahead, the Obama administration and 112th Congress
plan no federal state bailouts ahead. Moreover, Fed chairman Bernanke said
"We have no expectation or intention to get involved in state and
local finance," and according to Rep. Paul Ryan (R. WI):
-
- "If we bail out one state, then all of the debt
of all of the states are almost explicitly on the books of the federal
government," already drowning in its own.
-
- Yet the combined shortfall of all states equals about
one-tenth of all defense spending (including supplemental add-ons, black
budgets, debt service, veterans benefits, and other expenses). Moreover,
it's one-fifth of the initial $700 billion TARP bank bailout, and a miniscule
percent of the estimated $13 trillion + given rogue banksters.
-
- Nonetheless, Washington's message to states and American
workers apparently is "Let 'em eat cake." Whether or not Marie
Antoinette actually said it, France's 1789 - 1799 revolution was very real,
delivering guillotine justice, not promised "Liberte, Egalite, and
Fraternite."
-
- A Final Comment
-
- In its final hours, Illinois' legislature delivered good
news with its lump of coal, both Houses voting to end capital punishment,
yet Gov. Quinn earlier said he supports it "when applied carefully
and fairly."
-
- In 2000, Gov. George Ryan saved 163 men and four women
on death row after 13 there were found innocent and released. As a result,
he declared a moratorium on future executions, a measure Quinn supported
at the time. If he signs the new legislation, Illinois will join 15 other
states and the District of Columbia (including New York, New Jersey, Minnesota,
Massachusetts) without capital punishment, what should have been abolished
federally long ago.
-
- Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at
lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com
and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the
Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays
at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs
are archived for easy listening.
-
- http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/.
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