- The alleged North Korean sinking of a South Korean boat
in March has dramatically escalated tensions between north and south Korea.
It has also caused a reversal of a planned Japanese government push to
close the US military base on Okinawa. The major question in the bizarre
affair is Cui Bono?
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- On March 26, a 1,200-ton Cheonan corvette was sunk apparently
by a torpedo. Forty-six sailors died when the ship went down near the disputed
Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea following a sudden explosion.
On May 26, a special investigative commission of South Korean military
and unnamed experts from the US, Canada, Britain, and Sweden, issued their
report stating that, "Cheonan was sunk as the result of an external
underwater explosion caused by a torpedo made in North Korea. The evidence
points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a
North Korean submarine."
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- That report has detonated an explosive rise in tensions
in the entire Korean Peninsula and byyond to Japan. It has involved the
Chinese and Russians in efforts at defusing the crisis. It also comes at
an extremely convenient moment for the Pentagon. North Korea vehemently
denies that it fired the torpedo and has accused Washington of provoking
the clash. North Korea, angered by the accusations, has declared it is
cutting all ties with Seoul and allegedly has ordered its 1.2- million
armed forces to get ready for combat.
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- The United States and South Korea will hold joint military
drills to practice interception of submarines "in the near future,"
a Pentagon spokesman has stated, calling the maneuvers "a result of
the findings of this recent incident." The Obama Administration has
said Pyongyang should face consequences and expressed its "unequivocal"
support to South Korea. Obama has directed his military commanders to coordinate
with South Korea to "ensure readiness" and "deter future
aggression."
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- Curious proof
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- The key piece of evidence cited by the anonymous commission
is a fragment of a torpedo propeller somehow recovered at the final
phase of the investigation - with a marking which reads "No. 1"
and matches a North Korean torpedo found 7 years ago in the Yellow Sea,
according to Alexander Vorontsov, Head of Korea Department of the Institute
for Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Science. He adds, "Considering
that the blast was allegedly caused by a torpedo carrying a net explosive
weight of 250 kg, investigators must have been remarkably lucky to find
the right fragment with the marking implicating North Korea. The marking,
which is the sole indication of the country of origin of the torpedo, could
of course look exactly the same on a South Korean torpedo."
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- The Obama White House has rushed to endorse the Commission
report. The White House condemned "the act of aggression" in
a statement made available almost immediately on release of the report.
Even before the report was released, Obama talked to South Korean President
Lee Myung-bak by phone and reportedly told Lee that all contacts with North
Korea should be suspended until it becomes clear who perpetrated the attack,
not exactly a calming move.
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- Japan, whose new Government had won election on a pledge
to close the controversial US Naval base on Okinawa, suddenly capitulated
and agreed with Washington to "settle" the dispute, citing the
Korean crisis as grounds. Japan and the United States have now come to
an agreement on the relocation of theUS military base in Okinawa. Japanese
Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates
met at the Pentagon the same day the Korean commission issued its "findings."
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- To date both the Russian and Chinese governments have
reacted extremely cautiously to the Seoul claims. Russian foreign minister
Lavrov has stated that Moscow would carefully review pertinent materials,
both those from South Korea and "from other sources." He made
clear that Moscow had reservations about the South Korean version of the
incident and deemed further verification necessary. Lavrov also urged restraint
on both sides, a stark contrast to the Obama Administration.
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- China's position is generally similar. China's foreign
ministry spokesman described the sinking of Cheonan as a tragic incident
and stated that the priority in dealing with it should be to sustain peace
and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the entire North East Asia.
Beijing is calling for calm and restraint until it transpires what exactly
happened. Unofficially, China criticizes the evidence at South Korea's
disposal as unconvincing, patchy, and contradictory and says it is going
to assess the situation independently.
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- North Korea insists that the evidence was forged and
is ready to send its inspectors to assess it. Pyongyang is offering to
delegate representatives to review South Korea's "evidence,"
a timely and rational initiative intended to keep the inter-Korean dialog
afloat during the crisis and help defuse the conflict. South Korea's refusal
to enter talks with Pyongyang would further diminish the credibility of
their evidence.
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- In addition to the dispute over the status of the key
US base on Okinawa in Japan, the US is under pressure to end its military
command in South Korea and turn it over to the South Koreans in 2012. The
US has 28,000 troops on the peninsula. In line with an agreement reached
after the end of the 1950s Korean war, South Korean soldiers follow US
military orders in case of war on the Korean Peninsula. The latest incident
comes as North Korea appeared ready to resume the six-party talks on North
Korea's nuclear program, involving Russia, Japan, China, the United States
and the two Koreas, stalled in April 2009 when Pyongyang pulled out of
the negotiations in protest against the United Nations' condemnation of
its missile tests.
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- In 1999 this writer spoke with a former US Ambassador
to Beijing, a career CIA officer and close friend of the Bush family. The
former diplomat stated, in an incautious moment, "If North Korea did
not exist, we would have to create it. They allow us to keep our fleet
in the Japanese waters despite the end of the Cold War." Perhaps the
sudden heating up of Korea tensions is also related to a longer-term Pentagon
agenda for the region. If we ask Cui Bono, the clear reply is Washington.
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- Alexander Vorontsov, The Conundrum of the South Korean
Corvette, RIA Novosti, Moscow, May 26, 2010.
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